Navigation
  • Essay Webtraffic
  • Essay Google Adsense
  • Essay Random Articles
  • Essay Various
  • Essay Self Improvement Articles
  • Essay Articles Marketing1
  • Essay Accounting
  • Essay Acid reflux
  • Essay Acne
  • Essay Adsense
  • Essay Adult
  • Essay Advertising
  • Essay Adwareand spyware
  • Essay Aff10mar
  • Essay Affiliate
  • Essay Affiliate Marketing
  • Essay Affiliate Marketing On The Internet
  • Essay Affiliate Success
  • Essay Affiliate Marketers
  • Essay Affiliate Articles
  • Essay Affiliate Programs
  • Essay After School Activities
  • Essay Aikido
  • Essay Air Purifiers
  • Essay Air freight
  • Essay Air Purifiers
  • Essay Alternative energy
  • Essay Alternative Medicine
  • Essay American History
  • Essay Anger management
  • Essay Art Auctions
  • Essay ArticleMarketing
  • Essay Articles
  • Essay Articles Web Design
  • Essay Articles Marketing
  • Essay Articles
  • Essay Article Marketing
  • Essay Article Writing
  • Essay Artmarketing
  • Essay Arts Entertainment
  • Essay Aspen nightlife
  • Essay Aspen Nightlife
  • Essay Astrology
  • Essay Astronomy
  • Essay Atkins Diet
  • Essay Attraction
  • Essay ATV
  • Essay Auctions
  • Essay Audio Video Streaming
  • Essay Autism
  • Essay Auto Navigation Systems
  • Essay Auto Responders
  • Essay Auto sound systems
  • Essay Auto Leasing
  • Essay Autoresponders
  • Essay Aviation
  • Essay Babies
  • Essay Baby
  • Essay Back pain
  • Essay Backyard Activities
  • Essay Bargain Hunting
  • Essay Bathroom Remodeling
  • Essay Bathroom accessories
  • Essay BBQs
  • Essay Beach Vacations
  • Essay Beauty
  • Essay Biking
  • Essay Biography
  • Essay Black History
  • Essay Blog Marketing
  • Essay Blogging
  • Essay Blogs
  • Essay Bluetooth Technology
  • Essay Boarding
  • Essay Boating
  • Essay Boats
  • Essay Bodydetox
  • Essay Book Marketing
  • Essay Book Reviews
  • Essay Breast Feeding
  • Essay Breast Cancer
  • Essay Budgeting
  • Essay Burglar alarm
  • Essay Business
  • Essay Buying A Boat
  • Essay Buying Paintings
  • Essay California tan
  • Essay Camera bag
  • Essay Candle Making
  • Essay Car Rental
  • Essay Car Stereo
  • Essay Cardio
  • Essay Careers
  • Essay Carpet
  • Essay Cars
  • Essay Cats
  • Essay CD duplication
  • Essay Celebrities
  • Essay Cell Phone
  • Essay Child Care
  • Essay Choosing the Right Golf Clubs
  • Essay Christmas Shopping
  • Essay Cigars
  • Essay Closet Organizers
  • Essay Clothing
  • Essay Coaching
  • Essay Coffee
  • Essay Coin Collecting
  • Essay Colic
  • Essay College
  • Essay College Scholarship
  • Essay Colon Cancer
  • Essay Communications
  • Essay COMPUTER GAMES & SYSTEMS
  • Essay COMPUTERS, LAPTOPS, SMARTPHONES
  • Essay Computers Technology
  • Essay Computer Certification
  • Essay Consumer Electronics
  • Essay Contact Lenses
  • Essay Cooking
  • Essay Copywriting
  • Essay Corporate gifts
  • Essay Crafts
  • Essay Crafts articles
  • Essay Craigslist
  • Essay Creating an online business
  • Essay Creativity
  • Essay Credit
  • Essay Credit Card
  • Essay Credit Cards
  • Essay Credit score
  • Essays Credit Cards
  • Essay Credit Card Debt
  • Essay Criminology
  • Essay Cruise Ships
  • Essay Cruises
  • Essay Currency Trading
  • Essay Customer Service
  • Essay Dance
  • Essays Data Recovery
  • Essay Data Recovery
  • Essay Dating
  • Essay Dating Women
  • Essay Debt
  • Essay Debt Consolidation
  • Essay Decorating for Christmas
  • Essay Dental
  • Essay Dental Assistant
  • Essay Depression
  • Essay Destinations
  • Essay Diabetes
  • Essay Diamonds
  • Essay Diesel VS Gasoline vehicles
  • Essay Dieting
  • Essay Digital Camera
  • Essay Digital photography
  • Essay Digital Cameras
  • Essays Digital cameras
  • Essay Digital Products
  • Essay Disease Illness
  • Essay Disneyland
  • Essay Divorce
  • Essay Divorce rebuild life
  • Essay Dogs
  • Essay Domains
  • Essay EBay
  • Essay Ebooks
  • Essay Ecommerce
  • Essay Education
  • Essay Elderly Care
  • Essay Elliptical trainers
  • Essay Email Marketing
  • Essay Emergency preparation
  • Essay Entrepreneurs
  • Essay Environmental
  • Essay Writing
  • Essay Ethics
  • Essay Eventplanning
  • Essay Excavation Equipment
  • Essay Exercise
  • Essay Extra Income
  • Essay Extreme
  • Essay Ezine Marketing
  • Essay Ezine Publishing
  • Essay Family Budget
  • Essay Fashion
  • Essay Fashion school
  • Essay Feng shui
  • Essay Finance
  • Essay Finance and insurance
  • Essay Fishing
  • Essay Fitness
  • Essay Fitness Equipment
  • Essay Food Beverage
  • Essay Forex
  • Essay Formula D Racing
  • Essay Forums
  • Essay Fruit Trees
  • Essays Fruit Trees
  • Essay Fundraising
  • Essay Gambling
  • Essay Gambling Casinos
  • Essay Games
  • Essay Garage Remodeling
  • Essay Gardening
  • Essay General
  • Essay Goal Setting
  • Essay Golden Retriever
  • Essays Golden Retriever
  • Essay Golf
  • Essay Google Sense
  • Essays Google Adsense
  • Essay Gourmet
  • Essay Government
  • Essay Grief
  • Essay Hair Loss
  • Essay Happiness
  • Essay Hardware
  • Essay Health
  • Essay Health Articles Pack
  • Essay Healthy Aging
  • Essay Healthy Eating
  • Essay Health Fitness
  • Essay Health Insurance articles
  • Essay High Definition Video Cameras
  • Essay High Definition Video Cameras
  • Essay Hiking and Camping
  • Essay Hobbies
  • Essay Hobby Articles
  • Essay Holiday Games Activities
  • Essays Holiday Games Activities
  • Essay Holidays
  • Essay Home and constructions
  • Essay Home decorating
  • Essay Home Schooling
  • Essay Home Security
  • Essay Home Theater Systems
  • Essay Home Theater
  • Essay Homeschooling
  • Essay Home Security
  • Essay Home Based Business
  • Essay Home Entertainment
  •  
    Free Essay
    8.9 of 10 on the basis of 1297 Review.
     

     

     

     

     

     

         
     
    Process and outcome in investing
         

     

    The following is an excerpt from the book More Than You Know by Michael J. Mauboussin Published by Columbia University Press; June 2006;$27.95US; 0-231-13870-9 Copyright © 2006 Michael J. Mauboussin Chapter 1 Be the House Individual decisions can be badly thought through, and yet be successful, or exceedingly well thought through, but be unsuccessful, because the recognized possibility of failure in fact occurs. But over time, more thoughtful decision-making will lead to better overall results, and more thoughtful decision-making can be encouraged by evaluating decisions on how well they were made rather than on outcome. --Robert Rubin, Harvard Commencement Address, 2001 Any time you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favor, you have earned something on that bet, whether you actually win or lose the bet. By the same token, when you make a bet with the worst of it, where the odds are not in your favor, you have lost something, whether you actually win or lose the bet. --David Sklansky, The Theory of Poker Hit Me Paul DePodesta, a former baseball executive and one of the protagonists in Michael Lewis’s Moneyball, tells about playing blackjack in Las Vegas when a guy to his right, sitting on a seventeen, asks for a hit. Everyone at the table stops, and even the dealer asks if he is sure. The player nods yes, and the dealer, of course, produces a four. What did the dealer say? “Nice hit.” Yeah, great hit. That’s just the way you want people to bet -- if you work for a casino. This anecdote draws attention to one of the most fundamental concepts in investing: process versus outcome. In too many cases, investors dwell solely on outcomes without appropriate consideration of process. The focus on results is to some degree understandable. Results -- the bottom line -- are what ultimately matter. And results are typically easier to assess and more objective than evaluating processes. But investors often make the critical mistake of assuming that good outcomes are the result of a good process and that bad outcomes imply a bad process. In contrast, the best long-term performers in any probabilistic field -- such as investing, sports-team management, and pari-mutuel betting -- all emphasize process over outcome. Jay Russo and Paul Schoemaker illustrate the process-versus-outcome message with a simple two-by-two matrix. Their point is that because of probabilities, good decisions will sometimes lead to bad outcomes, and bad decisions will sometimes lead to good outcomes -- as the hit-on-seventeen story illustrates. Over the long haul, however, process dominates outcome. That’s why a casino -- “the house” -- makes money over time. The goal of an investment process is unambiguous: to identify gaps between a company’s stock price and its expected value. Expected value, in turn, is the weighted-average value for a distribution of possible outcomes. You calculate it by multiplying the payoff (i. e., stock price ) for a given outcome by the probability that the outcome materializes. Perhaps the single greatest error in the investment business is a failure to distinguish between the knowledge of a company’s fundamentals and the expectations implied by the market price. Note the consistency between Michael Steinhardt and Steven Crist, two very successful individuals in two very different fields: I defined variant perception as holding a well-founded view that was meaningfully different from market consensus . . . Understanding market expectation was at least as important as, and often different from, the fundamental knowledge. The issue is not which horse in the race is the most likely winner, but which horse or horses are offering odds that exceed their actual chances of victory . . . This may sound elementary, and many players may think that they are following this principle, but few actually do. Under this mindset, everything but the odds fades from view. There is no such thing as “liking” a horse to win a race, only an attractive discrepancy between his chances and his price. A thoughtful investment process contemplates both probability and payoffs and carefully considers where the consensus -- as revealed by a price -- may be wrong. Even though there are also some important features that make investing different than, say, a casino or the track, the basic idea is the same: you want the positive expected value on your side. From Treasury to Treasure In a series of recent commencement addresses, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin offered the graduates four principles for decision making. These principles are especially valuable for the financial community: 1. The only certainty is that there is no certainty. This principle is especially true for the investment industry, which deals largely with uncertainty. In contrast, the casino business deals largely with risk. With both uncertainty and risk, outcomes are unknown. But with uncertainty, the underlying distribution of outcomes is undefined, while with risk we know what that distribution looks like. Corporate undulation is uncertain; roulette is risky. The behavioral issue of overconfidence comes into play here. Research suggests that people are too confident in their own abilities and predictions. As a result, they tend to project outcome ranges that are too narrow. Over the past seventy-five years alone, the United States has seen a depression, multiple wars, an energy crisis, and a major terrorist attack. None of these outcomes were widely anticipated. Investors need to train themselves to consider a sufficiently wide range of outcomes. One way to do this is to pay attention to the leading indicators of “inevitable surprises.” An appreciation of uncertainty is also very important for money management. Numerous crash-and-burn hedge fund stories boil down to committing too much capital to an investment that the manager overconfidently assessed. When allocating capital, portfolio managers need to consider that unexpected events do occur. 2. Decisions are a matter of weighing probabilities. We’ll take the liberty of extending Rubin’s point to balancing the probability of an outcome (frequency) with the outcome’s payoff (magnitude). Probabilities alone are insufficient when payoffs are skewed. Let’s start with another concept from behavioral finance: loss aversion. For good evolutionary reasons, humans are averse to loss when they make choices between risky outcomes. More specifically, a loss has about two and a half times the impact of a gain of the same size. So we like to be right and hence often seek high-probability events. A focus on probability is sound when outcomes are symmetrical, but completely inappropriate when payoffs are skewed. Consider that roughly 90 percent of option positions lose money. Does that mean that owning options is a bad idea? The answer lies in how much money you make on the 10 percent of options positions that are profitable. If you buy ten options each for $1, and 9 of them expire worthless but the tenth rises to $25, you’d have an awful frequency of success but a tidy profit. So some high-probability propositions are unattractive, and some low-probability propositions are very attractive on an expected-value basis. Say there’s a 75 percent probability that a stock priced for perfection makes its earnings number and, hence, rises 1 percent, but there’s a 25 percent likelihood that the company misses its forecast and plummets 10 percent. That stock offers a great probability but a negative expected value. 3. Despite uncertainty, we must act. Rubin’s point is that we must base the vast majority of our decisions on imperfect or incomplete information. But we must still make decisions based on an intelligent appraisal of available information. Russo and Schoemaker note that we often believe more information provides a clearer picture of the future and improves our decision making. But in reality, additional information often only confuses the decision-making process. Researchers illustrated this point with a study of horse-race handicappers. They first asked the handicappers to make race predictions with five pieces of information. The researchers then asked the handicappers to make the same predictions with ten, twenty, and forty pieces of information for each horse in the race. Even though the handicappers gained little accuracy by using the additional information, their confidence in their predictive ability rose with the supplementary data. 4. Judge decisions not only on results, but also on how they were made. A good process is one that carefully considers price against expected value. Investors can improve their process through quality feedback and ongoing learning. One of my former students, a very successful hedge fund manager, called to tell me that he is abolishing the use of target prices in his firm for two reasons. First, he wants all of the analysts to express their opinions in expected value terms, an exercise that compels discussion about payoffs and probabilities. Entertaining various outcomes also mitigates the risk of excessive focus on a particular scenario -- a behavioral pitfall called “anchoring.” Second, expected-value thinking provides the analysts with psychological cover when they are wrong. Say you’re an analyst who recommends purchase of a stock with a target price above today’s price. You’re likely to succumb to the confirmation trap, where you will seek confirming evidence and dismiss or discount disconfirming evidence. If, in contrast, your recommendation is based on an expected-value analysis, it will include a downside scenario with an associated probability. You will go into the investment knowing that the outcome will be unfavorable some percentage of the time. This prior acknowledgement, if shared by the organization, allows analysts to be wrong periodically without the stigma of failure. Prioritizing Process The investment community, because of incentives and measurement systems, is too focused on outcome and not enough on process. In Rubin’s words: It’s not that results don’t matter. They do. But judging solely on results is a serious deterrent to taking risks that may be necessary to making the right decision. Simply put, the way decisions are evaluated affects the way decisions are made. Copyright © 2006 Michael J. Mauboussin Author Michael J. Mauboussin is chief investment strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management and an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School. He is the author (with Alfred Rappaport) of Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns. Mauboussin lives in Darien, Connecticut. For more information, please visit michaelmauboussin.

         
     
         
    Essay Service
  • Essay Home Family
  • Essay Home Improvement
  • Essay Home Security
  • Essay Horse racing
  • Essay Hosting
  • Essay Humanities
  • Essay Humor
  • Essay Hunting
  • Essay Hybrid car
  • Essay Hypoallergenic dogs
  • Essay Improve personal life
  • Essay Innovation
  • Essay Inspirational
  • Essay Insurance
  • Essay Interior Design
  • Essay International Airports
  • Essay Internet security
  • Essay Internet Marketing
  • Essay Internet Business
  • Essays Internet Marketing
  • Essay Investing
  • Essay Investment Basics
  • Essay Ipod Video
  • Essay Ireland golf vacation
  • Essay Jewelry
  • Essay Jewelry Wholesale
  • Essay Job Search
  • Essay Junior golf
  • Essay K 12 Education
  • Essay Kitchen
  • Essay Kitchen Remodeling
  • Essays Kitchen Remodeling
  • Essay Koi
  • Essay La Jolla California
  • Essay Landscaping
  • Essay Language
  • Essay Las Vegas
  • Essay Law
  • Essay Leadership
  • Essay Leasing
  • Essay Legal
  • Essay Leukemia
  • Essay Loans
  • Essay Low cholesterol
  • Essay Making Money With Articles
  • Essay Male menopause
  • Essay Management
  • Essay Marketing
  • Essay Marketing PLR
  • Essay Marketing Your Business On The Internet
  • Essay Marriage
  • Essay Martial Arts
  • Essays Martial Arts
  • Essay Writing Martial Arts
  • Essay Medicine
  • Essay Meditation
  • Essay Membership Sites
  • Essay Men s Issues
  • Essay Mesothelioma
  • Essay Mexico Vacations
  • Essay Microbrews
  • Essay Mini Blinds or Wood Shutters
  • Essay MLM
  • Essay Mobile A V
  • Essay Mobility scooters
  • Essay Monograms
  • Essay Mortgage
  • Essay Motivation
  • Essay Motor Homes
  • Essay Motorcycles
  • Essay Motorcycles and Scooters
  • Essay Mountain Biking
  • Essay Movies
  • Essay Movie Reviews
  • Essay Moving
  • Essay Moving overseas
  • Essay Movinghouse
  • Essay Multiple Sclerosis
  • Essay Muscle Building
  • Essay Music
  • Essay Music Reviews
  • Essay Mutual Funds
  • Essay Myspace
  • Essay Networking
  • Essay Networks
  • Essay New Air Travel Rules
  • Essay New Years Eve Party Planning
  • Essay New York
  • Essays New York
  • Essay NewAirTravelRules
  • Essay Newport Beach
  • Essay New Years Eve Party Planning
  • Essay Niche Marketing
  • Essay Nursing Assistant
  • Essay Nutrition
  • Essay Office Chairs
  • Essay Online Dating General
  • Essay Online Dating Man
  • Essay Online Dating Woman
  • Essay Online Shopping
  • Essay Opt In List
  • Essays Opt In List
  • Essay Organizing
  • Essay Outdoors
  • Essay Outsourcing
  • Essay Outsourcing Ebooks and Software Jobs
  • Essay Ovarian Cancer
  • Essay Paint Ball
  • Essay Parenting
  • Essay Parentingskills
  • Essay Paris
  • Essay Personal Loans
  • Essay Personal Finance
  • Essay Pet health care
  • Essay Pets
  • Essay PH Miracle Diet
  • Essay Philosophy
  • Essay Photography
  • Essay Playstation3
  • Essay PLC AffiliateMarketing
  • Essay Podcasting
  • Essay Podcasts
  • Essay Poetry
  • Essay Politics
  • Essay Politics Commentary
  • Essay Politics Current Events
  • Essay Politics History
  • Essay Pool Accessories
  • Essay Porsche
  • Essay Power Tools
  • Essay PPC
  • Essay PPC Advertising
  • Essay Pre Paid Legal
  • Essay Pregnancy
  • Essay Private Jet Charters
  • Essay Private Label Resell Rights
  • Essay Private Yacht Charters
  • Essay Private investigation
  • Essays Private Label Resell Rights
  • Essay Product Reviews
  • Essay Prostate Cancer
  • Essay Psychology
  • Essay Public Relations
  • Essay Public Speaking
  • Essay Rawfood
  • Essay RC Hobbies
  • Essay Rc car
  • Essay Re Financing
  • Essay Real Estate
  • Essay Real Estatearticles
  • Essay Real Estate
  • Essay Recipes
  • Essay Recreation Sports
  • Essay Reference
  • Essay Reference Education
  • Essay Relationships
  • Essay Religion
  • Essay Remote control helicopters
  • Essay Renting A House Or Apartment
  • Essay Retirement Planning
  • Essay RSS
  • Essay Running
  • Essay RVs
  • Essay Sales
  • Essay San Diego
  • Essay San Fransisco
  • Essay Satellite Radio
  • Essay Science
  • Essay Scotch
  • Essay Seattle
  • Essay Security
  • Essay Self Improvement Articles
  • Essay Self Help
  • Essay Self Improvement
  • Essays Self Improvement
  • Essay Sell Your House
  • Essay SEO
  • Essay Sexuality
  • Essay Shoes
  • Essay Show Business
  • Essay Site Promotion
  • Essay Ski vacations
  • Essay Skiing Locations
  • Essay Skincare
  • Essay Skin Cancer
  • Essay Sk Vacations
  • Essay Sleepingbaby
  • Essay Small Business
  • Essay Snoring
  • Essay Snoring remedy
  • Essay Snowboarding
  • Essay Snowmobiling
  • Essay Social Networking
  • Essay Society
  • Essay Sociology
  • Essay Software
  • Essay Spam
  • Essay Spirituality
  • Essay Sports
  • Essay Sports Car
  • Essay Sports coaching articles
  • Essay St. Thomas Vacations
  • Essay Stock Market
  • Essay Stress Management
  • Essays St Thomas Vacations
  • Essay Success
  • Essay Summer Vacations
  • Essay Supercross Racing
  • Essay Supplements
  • Essay Surround Sound
  • Essay Swimming Pools
  • Essay Tattoos
  • Essay Tax attorney
  • Essay Taxes
  • Essay Tech gadgets
  • Essay Teeth whitening
  • Essay Tennis
  • Essay Terrier dogs
  • Essay Thanksgiving Party Articles
  • Essay Theater Arts
  • Essay Time Share Investments
  • Essay Time Management
  • Essay Toothache and Tooth Care
  • Essay Top Golfing Accessories
  • Essay Tracking Software
  • Essay Trafficand SEO
  • Essay Traffic Generation
  • Essay Travel Tips To European Countries
  • Essay Travel Leisure
  • Essay Travel Tips
  • Essay Trucks SUVS
  • Essay Universal Studio Tours
  • Essay Vacations
  • Essay Vacuum Cleaners
  • Essay Valentines Day
  • Essay Vehicles
  • Essay Video Sites
  • Essay Video streaming
  • Essay VideoSites
  • Essay Vitamins
  • Essay Vitamins and Supplements
  • Essay WAHM
  • Essay Wart Removal
  • Essay Wealth Building
  • Essay Weather
  • Essay Web Design
  • Essay Web Traffic
  • Essay Web Design
  • Essay Web Development
  • Essay Web Hosting
  • Essay Wedding Favors
  • Essay Wedding Games Activities
  • Essay Weddings
  • Essay Weight Loss
  • Essays Weight Loss
  • Essay Wine
  • Essay Wine And Spirits
  • Essay Women s Issues
  • Essay Writing
  • Essay Writing Speaking
  • Essay YEAR OF CONTENT
  • Essay Yoga
  • Essay YouTube
  •  
    Free Essay
    different between Adwareand spyware | garment accessories | gament accessories | accessories | Arts | domoniterisation paragraph | MONICA ASHLEY | apina hrbek | easy essay on the topic of Demonitisation | anything | essay on importance of demonitisation | write a paragraph on demonitisation | paragrapha on demonitisation | Demonitisation eassy word easy | a short paragraph on demonitisation | paragraph of demonitisation | argumentative essay on demonitisation | short paragraph on demonitisation | demonitisation eassy | demonetisation drive eassy point to point | fullopin tube kise kahte h | Essay on demonitisation for college student | eassy on demonitisation | short eassy on demonitisation | college essay about "demonitisation" | bhujangasan eassy | steroid hormones kise khte hai? | Demonitisation short paragraph | car danting kise kahte hai | demonitisation and student life essay
     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     
     
     
      Free Essay Archive BloguinHos