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    Free Essay
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    Stock market what s in a trading edge

     

    : Unless you are able to develop a considerable trading edge over the other traders, you will end up losing your money, even if you are disciplined and organized. In this article, I discuss some elements that I use in my trading edge. Fundamental Analysis Fundamental analysis is the process of evaluating the financial condition of a company using financial reports, price/earning ratios, revenues, market share, sales and growth, etc. This type of analysis can be time consuming so instead of going through pages of financial reports, I simply look at IBD ratings. I like to use Investor’s Business Daily (IBD found at investors) to get a quick overview of a stock. The IBD rating covers: 1 - Earnings Per Share (EPS) rating: tells me a stock’s average short term (recent quarters) and long term (last three years) earning growth rate. The number I see is how the company compares to all other companies. The scale runs from 1 to 99, 99 being the best. 2 - Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating: Measures a stock’s relative price change in the last 12 months in comparison to all other equities. The scale runs from 1 to 99, 99 being the best. 3 - Industry Relative Price Rating: Compares a stock’s industry price action in the last 6 months to the other 196 industries in IBD’s industry list. The scale is from A to E, A being the best. 4 - Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (Return on Equity) Rating: Crunches a firm’s sales growth rate during the last 3 quarters, before and after profit margins and return on equity into one letter. The scale is from A to E, A being the best. 5 - Accumulation/Distribution rating: Applies a formula of price and volume changes in the last 13 weeks to determine if it is being accumulated or distributed. A = heavy buying, C = Neutral, E = heavy selling. If you like the idea of including fundamental analysis into your trading plan, consider trading only stocks that meet some minimum requirements - for example A or B, > 70, etc. I like to use fundamental ratings for longer term trades such as the ones I plan on weekly charts. It is not really useful if you trade intraday. Technical Analysis Fundamental analysis is great to build a list of strong stocks, or as a way to filter out weak stocks, but that’s about it. It does not provide you with an objective method to enter and exit trades. All my trading decisions (entry, exit, and stops) are based on technical analysis. Technical analysis is the study of prices. The price action draws patterns on charts and because human behavior can be repetitive, the price patterns can also be repetitive. You can choose from a variety of chart types. The Japanese candlestick charts are by far the best and it is the only form you need. There are entire books dedicated to the study of candlestick patterns - if you are serious about studying candlestick charts, look at books written by Steve Nison and and Gregory L. Morris. - Support and Resistance: The most important concept in technical analysis is Support and Resistance. It forms the foundation for every trading decision and could cover many pages but I will limit myself to simplified definitions and a couple examples: Support level: A price level that a declining market or stock failed to penetrate Example: the low of the previous day forms an area of support and is often used as a stop loss. Resistance level: A price level that a rising market or stock failed to break through Example: a prior high in an uptrend forms an area of resistance and can be used as a minimum objective to take some profits. Some technical indicators may also provide some support and resistance, for example moving averages, in part maybe because so many traders expect it. - Oscillators An oscillator is a technical indicator that tells you at a glance whether a market or a stock currently trades in an "overbought" or "oversold" condition. Some traders use oscillators to forecast a change of direction. Some examples include the RSI, Stochastic Oscillator, and MACD. There are hundreds of oscillators and technical indicators. I personally look at them to filter out some stocks if I have too many good ones to choose from. I never use them as a signal to open or close a trade. - Public Sentiment I look for support and resistance on the VIX (Volatility Index) daily chart to anticipate reversals. I look at the Put/Call Ratio (5 MA and 10 MA) on the daily chart to see if traders are too bearish (MAs > 0.8) or too bullish (MAs < 0.5). (MA = Moving Average) - Market internals to see if the market is overbought or oversold I look at the TRIN (5 MA and 10 MA) on the daily chart - overbought (MAs < 0.8) or oversold (MAs > 1.2). I look at the McClellan Oscillator – the market is overbought if it rises above +70 and oversold if drops below -70. A buy signal is generated if it falls into the oversold area (-70 to -100) and then turns up - a sell signal is generated if it rises into the overbought area (+70 to +100) and then turns down. If it goes beyond the -100/+100 levels then it may be a sign of continuation of the current trend. - Market and Industries I like to buy stocks from industries in a strong uptrend and short stocks from industries in a downtrend. I also consider the direction of the industry for the day (positive or negative). Putting it all together This article is not about teaching you how to develop an edge but hopefully it shows you that there are many different tools that can be used to improve your odds. It takes time to find a combination that fits your personality. It takes time to find what works for you.

         
    Stock market guide

     

    Stock market is an inquisitive place for many. It is because the place has given birth to many millionaires and is also responsible for turning millionaires to locals. Thus the bulls and bears have always been charismatic. Now millions of people invest in the stock market to make good money. The aura of the place is such that it is swarming with people any hour of the day and any season of the year. But only few know that how the stock market came into existence or what actually are its origins. A short encounter with the past The oldest stock certificate was issued in favor of a Dutch company in 1606. The purpose of this company was to benefit from the spice trade between India and the Far East. During the 18th and the 19th centuries the trade of spices drifted to England when Napoleon reigned over the place. With the development of United States of America as a colony to British and Alexander Hamilton (the first US secretary of the Treasury) flourished the American Stock Exchange. Hamilton played a crucial role in encouraging the trading in the Wall Street and Broad Street in New York. The New York Stock and Exchange Board now popularly known as the New York Stock Exchange was organized by the traders of New York in 1817 when trade and commerce bloomed there. A precise survey of the Western stock market • The Wall Street - a place where the whole of 18th century trade and commerce took place, Wall Street is a recognized place across the globe. The street was termed as Wall Street since it ran alongside a wall that was taken as the northern boundary of New Amsterdam in 17th century. The Wall Street is known for the J. P. Morgan’s million dollar merger that created US Steel Corporation, the ruinous crisis that resulted in Great Depression and the “Black Monday” of 1987. • The NYSE or the New York Stock Exchange is perhaps the foremost and so the oldest stock exchange in United States that is believed to be born in 1792. The significant aspects related to NYSE include the Buttonwood Agreement when 24 stockbrokers and traders of New York signed this accord and established the New York Stock Exchange and Securities Board which is now recognized as the NYSE; the considerable swings that the NYSE saw during the 20th and 21st century; the hitting of the 100 and later even 1000 mark by the Dow around 1971 and the mark of 10,000 that the Dow scaled in 1999. • NASDAQ is the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Questions. It is an apparent or virtual stock market where all trading is done through the electronic media. NASDAQ, the global and the largest electronic stock market today was first established in 1971 in United States at the time when computers were not as developed as they are today and it was very difficult to compute. The main exchange of NASDAQ is in United Sates while its branches can be found in Canada and Japan and it is also linked to markets of Hong Kong and Europe. NASDAQ functions by purchasing and selling the over - the - counter or OTC stocks. • AMEX-was discovered in 1842. The putative father of the institution is Edward Mc Cormick (the commissioner of SEC) who endowed it with its current name. It started its journey as the New York Curb Exchange and its name is factual. The AMEX in contrast to the NYSE operates with the small and more dynamic companies some of which even make it to the NYSE board.

         
    Stock market window dressing the art of looking smart

     

    As investors, and we all are investors these days, it is important that we understand the idiosyncrasies of the Stock Market pricing data we use to help us in our decision making efforts. On Wall Street, investing can be a minefield for those who don't take the time to appreciate why securities prices are at the levels that appear on quarterly account statements. At least four times per year, security prices are more a function of institutional marketing practices than they are a reflection of the economic forces that we would like to think are their primary determining factors. Not even close... Around the end of every calendar quarter, we hear the financial media matter-of-factly report that Institutional Window Dressing Activities" are in full swing. But that is as far, and as deep, as it ever goes. What are they talking about, and just what does it mean to you as an investor? There are at least three forms of Window Dressing, none of which should make you particularly happy and all of which should make you question the integrity of organizations that either authorize, implement, or condone their use. The better-known variety involves the culling from portfolios of stocks with significant losses and replacing them with shares of companies whose shares have been the most popular during recent months. Not only does this practice make the managers look smarter on reports sent to major clients, it also makes Mutual Fund performance numbers appear significantly more attractive to prospective "fund switchers". On the sell side of the ledger, prices of the weakest performing stocks are pushed down even further. Obviously, all fund managements will take part in the ritual if they choose to survive. This form of window dressing is, by most definitions, neither investing nor speculating. But no one seems to care about the ethics, the legality, or the fact that this "Buy High, Sell Low" picture is being painted with your Mutual Fund palette. A more subtle form of Window Dressing takes place throughout the calendar quarter, but is "unwound" before the portfolio's Quarterly Reports reach the glossies. In this less prevalent (but even more fraudulent) variety, the managers invest in securities that are clearly out of sync with the fund's published investment policy during a period when their particular specialty has fallen from grace with the gurus. For example, adding commodity ETFs, or popular emerging country issues to a Large Cap Value Fund, etc. Profits are taken before the Quarter Ends so that the fund's holdings report remains uncompromised, but with enhanced quarterly results. A third form of Window Dressing is referred to as "survivorship", but it impacts Mutual Fund investors alone while the others undermine the information used by (and the market performance of) individual security investors. You may want to research it. I cannot understand why the media reports so superficially on these "business as usual" practices. Perhaps ninety percent of the price movement in the equity markets is the result of institutional trading, and institutional money managers seem to be more concerned with politics and marketing than they are with investing. They are trying to impress their major clients with their brilliance by reporting ownership of all the hot tickets and none of the major losers. At the same time, they are manipulating the performance statistics contained in their promotional materials. They have made "Buy High, Sell Low" the accepted investment strategy of the Mutual Fund industry. Meanwhile, individual security investors receive inaccurate signals and incur collateral losses by moving in the wrong direction. From an analytical point of view, this quarterly market value reality (artificially created demand for some stocks and unwarranted weakness in others) throws almost any individual security or market sector statistic totally out of wack with the underlying company fundamentals. But it gets even more fuzzy, and not in the lovable sense. Just for the fun of it, think about the "demand pull" impact of an ever-growing list of ETFs. I don't think that I'm alone in thinking that the real meaning of security prices has less and less to do with corporate economics than it does with the morning betting line on ETF ponies... the dot-coms of the new millennium. [Do you remember the "Circle of Gold" from the seventies? Isn't GLD, or IAU, about the same thing?] As if all of these institutional forces weren't enough, you need also consider the impact of tax code motivated transactions during the always-entertaining final quarter of the year. One would never suspect (after watching millions of CPA directed taxpayers gleefully lose billions of dollars) that the purpose of investing is to make money! The net impact of these (euphemistically labeled) "year end tax saving strategies" is pretty much the same as that of the Type One Window Dressing described above. But here's an off-quarter buying opportunity that you really shouldn't pass up. Simply put, get out there and buy the November 52-week lows, wait for the periodic and mysterious "January Effect" to be reported by the media with eyes wide shut amazement, and pocket some easy profits. There just may not be a method to actually decipher the true value of a share of common stock. Is market price a function of company fundamentals, artificial demand for "derivative" securities, or various forms of Institutional Window Dressing? But this is a condition that can be used to great financial advantage. With security prices less closely related to those old fashioned fundamental issues such as dividends, projected profits, and unfunded pension liabilities and perhaps more closely related to artificial demand factors, the only operational alternative appears to be trading! Buy the downtrodden (but still fundamentally investment grade) issues and take your profits on those that have risen to inappropriately high levels based on basic measures of quality... and try to get it done before the big players do. To over simplify, a recipe for success would involve shopping for investment grade stocks at bargain prices, allowing them to simmer until a reasonable, pre-defined, profit target is reached, and seasoning the portfolio brew with the discipline to actually implement the profit taking plan. Yeah, I do miss the days when there were just stocks and bonds, but maybe I'm just a bit too old fashioned. Interesting place Wall Street...

         
    Stock markets of the world

     

    "Stock Market" is a term that is used to refer both to the physical location for buying and selling stocks, and to the overall activity of the market within a certain country. When you hear "The stock market was down today," it refers to the combined activity of many stock exchanges. The major exchanges in the US are the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the American Stock Exchange (Amex), and NASDAQ. The correct term for the physical location for trading stocks is the "Stock Exchange." A country may have many different stock exchanges. Usually a particular company's stocks are traded on only 1 exchange, although large corporations may be listed in several. Investing Around The World There are stock exchanges located throughout the world, and it is possible to buy or sell stocks on any of them. The only restriction is the oparating hours of each exchange. Both the NYSE and NASDAQ, for example, operate from 9:30 am to 4:00 pm Eastern Time, Monday through Friday. Other exchanges have similar opening hours based on their local time. When you trade on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, your order will be executed sometime between 9:30 pm and 4:00 am New York time. The locations of the major stock exchanges of the world are: Japan (Tokyo Stock Exchange) India (Bombay Stock Exchange) Europe (London Stock Exchange, Frankfurt Stock Exchange, SWX Swiss Exchange) the People's Republic of China (Shanghai Stock Exchange) United States. Stock Market Fluctuations The economic health of a country will strongly influence its stock market. When the economy is doing well the market is bullish. Bull markets occur during times of high economic production, low unemployment and low inflation. Bear markets, on the other hand, follow downturns in the economy. When inflation and unemployment are rising, stock prices are usually falling. Stock price fluctuations are also driven by supply and demand, which in turn are dependent to a great degree on investor psychology. Seeing a stock price rise rapidly can cause investors to jump on the bandwagon, and this rush to buy drives the price up even faster. A falling price can have a similar effect in the other direction. These are short-term fluctuations. Stock prices tend to normalize after such runs. The stock exchange is only 1 of many opportunities for people to invest. Other popular markets include the Foreign Exchange Market (FOREX), the Futures Market, and the Options Market. FOREX: World's Largest Market The FOREX is the biggest (in terms of value) investment market in the world. FOREX traders buy 1 currency against another and can profit from small changes in currency value. Most FOREX trades are entered and exited in 1 24-hour span, and traders have to keep a close watch on the market in order to make profitable trades. The Futures Market The Futures Market is a market of contracts to buy and sell certain goods at specified prices and times. It exists because buyers and sellers of goods wish to lock in prices for future delivery, but market conditions can make the actual futures contract fluctuate considerably in value. Most investors in the futures market are not interested in the actual goods -- only in the profit that can be realized from trading the contracts. The Options Market The Options Market is similar to the Futures Market in that an option is a contract that gives you the right (but not the obligation) to trade a stock at a certain price before a specified date. These options can be traded on their own or purchased as a form of insurance against price fluctuations within a certain time frame. Stocks: Low Risk, Long-Term All 3 of these markets are considered quite risky without considerable knowledge and experience. They also require close monitoring of market movements. Stocks, on the other hand, are less risky because movements of the market are usually more gradual. Although short-term investment strategies are possible, most people view stocks as long-term investments.

         
    Stock option trading millionaire principles

     

    INTRODUCTION Having been trading stocks and options in the capital markets professionally over the years, I have seen many ups and downs. I have seen paupers become millionaires overnight… And I have seen millionaires become paupers overnight… One story told to me by my mentor is still etched in my mind: “Once, there were two Wall Street stock market multi-millionaires. Both were extremely successful and decided to share their insights with others by selling their stock market forecasts in newsletters. Each charged US$10,000 for their opinions. One trader was so curious to know their views that he spent all of his $20,000 savings to buy both their opinions. His friends were naturally excited about what the two masters had to say about the stock market’s direction. When they asked their friend, he was fuming mad. Confused, they asked their friend about his anger. He said, ‘One said BULLISH and the other said BEARISH!’” The point of this illustration is that it was the trader who was wrong. In today’s stock and option market, people can have different opinions of future market direction and still profit. The differences lay in the stock picking or options strategy and in the mental attitude and discipline one uses in implementing that strategy. I share here the basic stock and option trading principles I follow. By holding these principles firmly in your mind, they will guide you consistently to profitability. These principles will help you decrease your risk and allow you to assess both what you are doing right and what you may be doing wrong. You may have read ideas similar to these before. I and others use them because they work. And if you memorize and reflect on these principles, your mind can use them to guide you in your stock and options trading. PRINCIPLE 1 SIMPLICITY IS MASTERY When you feel that the stock and options trading method that you are following is too complex even for simple understanding, it is probably not the best. In all aspects of successful stock and options trading, the simplest approaches often emerge victorious. In the heat of a trade, it is easy for our brains to become emotionally overloaded. If we have a complex strategy, we cannot keep up with the action. Simpler is better. PRINCIPLE 2 NOBODY IS OBJECTIVE ENOUGH If you feel that you have absolute control over your emotions and can be objective in the heat of a stock or options trade, you are either a dangerous species or you are an inexperienced trader. No trader can be absolutely objective, especially when market action is unusual or wildly erratic. Just like the perfect storm can still shake the nerves of the most seasoned sailors, the perfect stock market storm can still unnerve and sink a trader very quickly. Therefore, one must endeavor to automate as many critical aspects of your strategy as possible, especially your profit-taking and stop-loss points. PRINCIPLE 3 HOLD ON TO YOUR GAINS AND CUT YOUR LOSSES This is the most important principle. Most stock and options traders do the opposite… They hold on to their losses way too long and watch their equity sink and sink and sink, or they get out of their gains too soon only to see the price go up and up and up. Over time, their gains never cover their losses. This principle takes time to master properly. Reflect upon this principle and review your past stock and options trades. If you have been undisciplined, you will see its truth. PRINCIPLE 4 BE AFRAID TO LOSE MONEY Are you like most beginners who can’t wait to jump right into the stock and options market with your money hoping to trade as soon as possible? On this point, I have found that most unprincipled traders are more afraid of missing out on “the next big trade” than they are afraid of losing money! The key here is STICK TO YOUR STRATEGY! Take stock and options trades when your strategy signals to do so and avoid taking trades when the conditions are not met. Exit trades when your strategy says to do so and leave them alone when the exit conditions are not in place. The point here is to be afraid to throw away your money because you traded needlessly and without following your stock and options strategy. PRINCIPLE 5 YOUR NEXT TRADE COULD BE A LOSING TRADE Do you absolutely believe that your next stock or options trade is going to be such a big winner that you break your own money management rules and put in everything you have? Do you remember what usually happens after that? It isn’t pretty, is it? No matter how confident you may be when entering a trade, the stock and options market has a way of doing the unexpected. Therefore, always stick to your portfolio management system. Do not compound your anticipated wins because you may end up compounding your very real losses. PRINCIPLE 6 GAUGE YOUR EMOTIONAL CAPACITY BEFORE INCREASING CAPITAL OUTLAY You know by now how different paper trading and real stock and options trading is, don’t you? In the very same way, after you get used to trading real money consistently, you find it extremely different when you increase your capital by ten fold, don’t you? What, then, is the difference? The difference is in the emotional burden that comes with the possibility of losing more and more real money. This happens when you cross from paper trading to real trading and also when you increase your capital after some successes. After a while, most traders realize their maximum capacity in both dollars and emotion. Are you comfortable trading up to a few thousand or tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands? Know your capacity before committing the funds. PRINCIPLE 7 YOU ARE A NOVICE AT EVERY TRADE Ever felt like an expert after a few wins and then lose a lot on the next stock or options trade? Overconfidence and the false sense of invincibility based on past wins is a recipe for disaster. All professionals respect their next trade and go through all the proper steps of their stock or options strategy before entry. Treat every trade as the first trade you have ever made in your life. Never deviate from your stock or options strategy. Never. PRINCIPLE 8 YOU ARE YOUR FORMULA TO SUCCESS OR FAILURE Ever followed a successful stock or options strategy only to fail badly? You are the one who determines whether a strategy succeeds or fails. Your personality and your discipline make or break the strategy that you use not vice versa. Like Robert Kiyosaki says, “The investor is the asset or the liability, not the investment.” Understanding yourself first will lead to eventual success. PRINCIPLE 9 CONSISTENCY Have you ever changed your mind about how to implement a strategy? When you make changes day after day, you end up catching nothing but the wind. Stock market fluctuations have more variables than can be mathematically formulated. By following a proven strategy, we are assured that someone successful has stacked the odds in our favour. When you review both winning and losing trades, determine whether the entry, management, and exit met every criteria in the strategy and whether you have followed it precisely before changing anything. In conclusion… I hope these simple guidelines that have led my ship out of the harshest of seas and into the best harvests of my life will guide you too. Good Luck.

         
    Stock option trading to increase returns

     

    There has been a steady rise in the use of stock options by investors to maximize their leverage and returns over the past twelve months. Chicago Board Options Exchange confirms this observation when they recently reported that the month of March was their busiest on record with volume up 55% over the same month last year. In fact all previous stock option trading records were broken when over 5.6 million stock option contracts were traded in a single day. Stock option trading enables investors to increase their leverage and thus their rate of return over simple stock trading. If an investor has a solid approach to picking stocks that go up in the short term, the returns can be increased by 10 to 15 times using stock options. The trade off for this increased return is that the investor has to also judge the time period over which the increase will occur. Being able to pick the stock, direction, and time period are all critical for successful stock option trading. A recent statistical analysis of over 30 years of stock data has revealed certain reoccurring patterns that can yield high returns in stock option trading. The analysis was done with custom developed software and then the strategy was applied to all stocks for the last five years. Stock trading resulted in an average return per trade of 3.2%, but with stock option trading the average return per trade was over 55% for 2005. Investors have already begun to exploit the patterns found in this research and are reporting highly profitable trades. Whenever investors find inefficiencies in the market, there is a rush to take advantage of those inefficiencies. Although stock options are not available on all stocks, about half of the stocks found in the analysis did have tradable options. If the trend of increasing use of stock options by investors continues, we should see even more stocks add options for investors. It is easy to see that 60 to 70 percent of actively traded stocks will have option contracts available in the coming year if this trend continues. Investors are advised to look carefully at the open interest and volume when considering which option contract to buy. A low volume/open interest will generally result in large spreads between the bid/ask prices and thus reduce profits, plus it may make it difficult to sell the option contract. Another consideration in selecting the option contract is volatility. Stocks with high swings in prices will translate to more expensive options since the options will have a greater likelihood of being in the money. If you have a reliable method of forecasting stock movement, this higher price may not be a consideration.

         
    Stock trading 8211 what every investor should know

     

    Never try to fight against a trend. It may be tempting to buy a falling stock in order to average your costs. In fact, many investors seem to recommend such a step. In practice, in a majority of situations this only results in throwing good money after bad. Always have a stop loss, for every stock. If your stock moves down, at what price must you definitely sell? If you do not use historical data and technical analysis to arrive at investment decisions, you must have at least a fixed-amount method. Meaning, before you buy you will have to decide how much loss you can comfortably take on that stock, and stick to it. Never hold on to a stock position that has moved beyond your comfort level. As the saying goes, take care of your losses and the profits will take care of themselves. Keep track of your stocks. Even if your stop loss has been triggered and you have exited the stock, the stock could reverse trend and start a fresh uptrend. As a momentum investor, you should resort to periodical profit booking. When a stock is losing steam, book profits. Later, if the stock shows signs of picking up momentum again, you can always enter, even at higher levels. Your decisions are based on the potential upside from that price. Always remember that there is an “opportunity cost” to any position. If you have invested in a stock, you have effectively “blocked” that money from being invested in another stock with, perhaps more, potential. Once again, to repeat: Take care of your losses, and the profits will take care of themselves.

         
    Stock trading profit earnings can still be had today

     

    Day trading most commonly refers to the practice of buying and selling stocks during the day so that at the end of the day you don't hold any shares overnight; you sell as many shares as you buy. You make money on the difference between the purchase and sales prices. The main motivation for this style of trading is to make money every day so you don't sit on the shares , plus of course you eliminate the risk that the shares go down in value overnight. the motivation of this style of trading is to reduce the risk of holding a position overnight where the open price may have significantly changed from the previous day's closing price. NASDAQ defined day trading by saying somebody is a Daytrader if he makes more than four buy and sell orders over a five-day period. Prior to the year 2000 it was not uncommon for some of the most successful Daytraders to make more than a million dollars in a single day. There were dozens of Daytrading Chatrooms where people were "told" what to buy and when to buy it. Some Chatrooms had more than 500 members. And most Daytraders, it is estimated as high as 99%, lost their shirt. One of the reasons they lost their shirt is because they could trade on Margin. Trading on Margin means that the brokerage firm which executes your trades will lend you up to 5 times your investment. So if you had $10,000 in your trading account you could in some cases trade with $50,000. However, if you lost on your trades, repayment was due immediately. Since the heady dot com days of the year 2000 DayTrading has gone out of style and out of range. Most brokerage firms have gone under or have consolidated, and staff has been reduced in the remaining firms by about 80%. Trades that used to cost $35 to execute can now be had for as low as $4.- Initially it happened because President Bush talked the economy down and Mr Greenspan kept on raising the interest rate to such a level that all optimism disappeared from the Market. Up until this time like clockwork 2 or 3 days a week there were Stocks, mainly Internet Stocks, that would rise more than 30% early in the morning and then fall the same amount five minutes before closing so people could take profit. If you were on the ball you could make a lot of money as a DayTrader. You could also lose a lot of money. Those days no longer exist. It is very rare to see stocks vary more than 30% in one day so the profit potential first of all is not as great, and the ability to catch a percentage of the increase in the price of a stock has also lessened. One of the reasons also is that Internet Stocks which were totally overvalued are no longer overvalued and as a matter of fact have risen much less than any other type of Stock. Another reason is that there are very few IPO's and even Google's IPO did not take off for quite some time. If it was not for the spectacular performance of Google , Internet Stocks lost more than 8% in 2005. Even Ebay lost more than a quarter of its value. However, if you are shrewd, you can still make money as a DayTrader but it ain't easy. What do you think happens when a company invents a car that runs on water? If you could get news about this company very early you could make a lot of money. Not many people know that you can trade the NASDAQ Stock Market as early as 6 AM. So if you are a Stock Market News Hound and like to get up really early in the morning and have nerves of steel you could buy the stock at 6 AM and sell it at 9.29 AM to everybody else starting a regular trading day. This will not happen very often, the fact that there is spectacular news. But if you are patient it may happen once a month.

         
    Stock trading psychology

     

    Many of today’s highly successful traders will tell you that the general key to success in trading is to be able to comfortably take a loss. It is general knowledge among experts in the trading psychology field and among traders that the market is not predictable and it is safe to say that it never will be. In the world of trading, it is expected to take a loss; even those who are highly skilled traders know that it is inevitable. With that said, let us have a look at things you as a trader should be aware of, how you can take a loss effectively and use it towards the greater good of your trading world. Trading psychology tells us that when a trader loses he begins to become somewhat of a perfectionist in his dealing. Many traders think that in trading, a good day will always be one that is profitable. Trading psychology experts tells us this is not true. A trader should define a good day as one where they have extensively researched and planned with discipline and focus, and have followed through to the entire extent of the plan. Yes, when a trader has mastered the art of accepting losses and working through them with a well thought out plan then good days will become profitable in time. Because the art of trading in an unpredictable market fluctuates so greatly from one day to the next, experts in trading psychology believe that it is important that you concentrate on what you can control, instead of things that are beyond your control. Looking into the short-term you cannot expect to be able to control the profits of your trading. With that said, look at what you do you have ability to control. You do have the ability to control the difference between good and bad days. You are able to control this factor by extensively researching the strategies you implement within your trading experiences. By learning to research your chosen strategies, thus controlling the amount of good and bad trading days you experience, you will, in the long-term begin to generate profits, which is the ultimate goal of every trader. Trading psychology experts tell us that it is important to become realistic in trading instead of becoming a perfectionist. Perfectionist traders, relate a loss with failure, and will become obsessed with the failure, focusing only upon it. Realistic traders understand the unpredictability of the market and taking a loss is simply part of the art. The main key you must remember in trading psychology to be able to effectively limit your losses, instead of becoming obsessed with them. A common thing seen within the trading psychology world is that traders who are obsessed with their losses often have a hard time bouncing back from them, thus losing in the end. Experts in trading psychology have organized three basic strategies you can use to effectively stop losses. These strategies are: • Price Based • Time Based • Indicator Based Stops that are priced based are generally used when the other two have not functioned. To make this work you will need to make hypothesis’s about the trade and identify a low point in that particular market. Then you will set your trade entries near your points, thus making sure that losses will not be overly excessive if the hypothesis fails. Time Based stops constitutes making use of your time. Designate a holding period you allow to capture a certain number of points. If you have no achieved your desired profit within that time limit, you should stop the trade. If effectively used you should stop even if the price stop limit has not been achieved. The Indicator based stop makes use of market indicators. As a trader, you should be aware of these indicators and utilize them extensively within your trading experiences. Look at indicators such as, volume, advances, declines, and new highs and lows. Experts in trading psychology say that setting stops and rehearsing them mentally is a good psychological tool to use and will help ensure that you follow through.

         
    Stocks a winning way to scan for stocks that are in uptrends

     

    With thousands of stocks listed in the stock exchange for trading, how does a trader go about his stock selection? I am not refering to the fundamental approach where the trader studies the fundamentals of the company, and research the performance results of the company, check its price-earnings ratios or check its balance sheets and turnover and its dividend yield. By and large among those successful traders who really make their living off by trading professionally in the stock markets, their preferred method seems to be the technical analysis approach. By this, they use charting, and technical indicators applied to the stocks. They will devise filters or explorations, to scan for stocks that meet some selected indicators to show that the stocks are beginning to move or have started to move. Professional traders who trade for a living have an array of trading tools to help them, but one of the most common tools they use to good effect is the indicator called On Balance Volume. Popularised by Joseph Granville, the On Balance Volume or OBV in short is actually cumulative volume, where the underlying principle is that similar OBV should support equivalent price. By using this indicator, short term traders will be able to identify when there is a difference in this setting, or where OBV has outbreak already but price has still lagged behind, giving rise to the situation where an impending price jump is expected. But how large is the impending jump? If there is indeed an OBV outbreak, and by inference the price should follow in the next few trading sessions, one must also ensure that the impending jump is of sufficient size to warrant a good margin of profit attractive enough for him to trade. Added to this trading indicator, traders add yet another trading stipulation to nail those giant moves. We know in Elliot wave theory that the 3 and 5 waves of any stock are the impulsive and strong waves up. I have seen much success from traders who scan their stocks with an OBV outbreak and are in their impulsive 3 and 5th waves which are their longest and strongest waves. Armed with this understanding, when a stock is found to have just undergone an OBV Outbreak upwards and is moving within either its 3rd or 5th wave, you have an excellent candidate that will probably run away in price, and letting you reap a handsome profit within a short trading period.

         
    Stocks what key factor separates a winning trader from a losing trader

     

    Often, I receive requests from members of my stock market trading discussion group to give my views on technical analysis of stocks that they are watching. In the course of discussion, I discovered one common factor which separates the winning traders from the losing traders. In general, both group of traders like to scan their lists of active stocks to uncover possible trading candidates. However, the traders in the winning group are specific about their trading, and have their entry and exit points well spelt out in a specific trading plan. In their trading, they have precise entry and exit points...so that the trade is unemotional. After they have entered a trade, either they are correct and ride the trend or they are wrong and you exit with a loss that has been predetermined. There is nothing vague in their trading. In contrast, those who are losing money in their trades invariably do not have a trading plan, or at least a semblance of a trading plan. This group of traders jump on tips provided by others without being able to check or verify the tips from some analysis, whether technical or fundamental. They do not have any idea of when to enter the trade or to exit with a stop loss. Again, when the winning traders have computed their entry and exit and stop loss points, these traders can approach their trading day with guarded optimism, watching whether an expected rally is on the cards or not. By watching pre-determined price points, the trader can know whether a rally has in fact begun and to start to trade in a more aggressive manner or to stop trading on wrong expectations which comes soeasily by being influenced by tips here and there. If the trade goes against them and hit their stop loss, they take their loss unemotionally and are out of the market, thus limiting their losses. Remember, you involve hard earned money into your trading and investment. There is nothing VAGUE about trading. Every entry and exit points is calculated before hand to enable you to control your risk, if you are to become a successful trader. Learn how to do this well and you will be a consistent trader. Test every tip and breathe specifics into your trades and you can make profits. In every profession, it is the specialist who makes the most money. Learn to excel in your trading and you will be profitable.

         
    Stocks and shares how to trade profitably in a bear market

     

    Trading in a bull market is easier than trading in a bear market. Many traders find they can make money trading in bullish markets, but when there is a major correction underway or when the market is bearish, they literally freeze and are unable to trade successfully or find profits in their trading. First, when a market has collapsed, it is important to accept the fact that the market trend has changed from bullish to bearish. It is human nature to find scapegoats or to find a “reason” or to rationalise away the fact that the market trend has changed. But unless the trader accepts the fact that he is solely responsible to trade his way out of a bearish market, he will find his position untenable and discover losses that add up daily as the market bearish sentiments continue. It does not pay to refuse the responsibility of your own trading action and put the blame on your broker or your friend who has given you the "tips" that led to your losses. If you are faced with losses from a sudden collapse in prices, accept that it is your responsibility to now institute action to get out of this situation with profits. Secondly, while in bullish markets it is easy to trade by just buying stocks that are in initial outbreaks and just holding them and coming back again after a few days to reap profits, you cannot do the same during bearish markets. In bullish markets, you trade with the trend, and as long as the trend is up, you stand to make easy profits. On the contrary, in bearish markets, the market goes into consolidation, and trends are “shorter” in duration or the market will go into a sideways direction, with prices oscillating between ranges. During bearish markets, we are more biased towards range trading rather than trend trading. So if you do not know how to change from using trend trading to range trading, you can be caught with short term trend changes and suffer whipsaws and lose money trend trading during bearish markets. Dealing with traders who have gone through a series of major market corrections since 1987 has led me to conclude that there is no room for lackadaisical trading during bearish markets. The margin of error for a trading signal is much lower when trading in a bearish market. I have seen traders who are able to quickly change or adapt from longer trend trading to trading shorter swings in the market or range trading to be able to make money from their trades. In bearish markets, they are contented with smaller profits, but trading more often and in higher volumes. To aid in their margin of profits, they are able to negotiate the lowest brokerage terms possible with their brokers or to use discounted online trading platforms. In bearish markets, the trader who range trade will be the one who is best positioned to take advantage of the shorter and faster rebounds that occur as stocks get oversold and retrace upwards. Accepting personal responsibility and adapting to range trading will improve his chances to make money during bearish markets.

         
    Stocks look pricey

     

    The first quarter of 2006 is over. Now is a good time to reflect on stock prices and the opportunities they present. Bargains are scarce. Equities are expensive. In recent weeks, I’ve heard several fund managers say valuations are still attractive. I don’t agree. Generally speaking, valuations are unattractive. Returns on equity are higher than historical levels. A market-wide return on equity of 15% is unsustainable. Price-to-earnings ratios may not fully reflect how expensive stocks are. Price-to-book ratios are more alarming. There are two additional concerns. Most discussions of the relative attractiveness of equities focus on the S&P 500 and forward earnings. The S&P 500 is not the most representative index. It may not be the best index to consider when looking at market-wide valuations. Forward earnings are (necessarily) estimates. Where current returns on equity are unsustainable, projected earnings that use similar returns on equity may overstate the earnings power of equities in general. This can occur even where the estimates appear reasonable given current earnings. If you start with unsustainable base earnings, you are likely to overestimate future earnings even if you truly believe you are assuming very modest earnings growth. Assets in general are pricey. Value investors have few places to turn if they continue to insist upon a true margin of safety. Bonds are unattractive. Long-term inflation risks make U. S. treasury, corporate, and municipal bonds a fool’s bet. There is little to gain and much to lose. The know-nothing investor who buys a top-quality bond today and holds it for decades may very well find his purchasing power diminished. There may be some select opportunities in foreign equities. But, these are difficult to evaluate. Foreign government obligations are also difficult to evaluate, but that isn’t much of a problem for value investors, because most foreign government debt is priced to perfection. You’ll have to be willing to take a lot of uncompensated risks if you want to own such bonds. Of course, there are exceptions to every rule. There may be a few bonds out there that are attractive. There certainly are a few attractive stocks out there. But, even those stocks that look very attractive relative to their peers don’t look nearly as attractive when compared to past bargains. Value investors face a difficult choice. They can assume stock prices will return to historical levels, and hold cash until the correction comes. Or, they can accept the reality they currently face. There is no logical reason stock prices must necessarily return to historical levels. During the twentieth century, real after-tax returns in diversified groups of common stocks were very high relative to other investment opportunities. There have been various reasons given for why this occurred. Many have said these returns were possible, because of the higher risks involved in holding equities. Over the long-term, risks were somewhat higher than today’s investors seem to remember, but they were hardly severe enough to justify the kind of performance spreads that existed during much of the twentieth century. True, if you bought at inopportune times, it was possible to remain in a fairly deep hole for a fairly long time. But, if you gave no real consideration to the timing of your purchases or the prospects of the underlying enterprises, you did better than many bondholders who chose their investments with the utmost care. This is a disconcerting problem. It may be that most investors are overly sensitive to the risk of an immediate “paper” loss in nominal terms, and therefore overlook the much greater risk of a gradual loss of purchasing power. Issuing fixed dollar obligations may be the best bet for any business or government that seeks to swindle investors. For the sake of the common stockholders, I hope many of the best businesses continue to issue such obligations when money is cheap. Corporate debt gets a bad name, because it tends to be overused by those who don’t need it and shouldn’t want it (and, of course, by those businesses that do need it but won't survive even if they get it). The businesses that would benefit the most from the use of debt usually appear to have more cash than they could ever need. But, it’s best to think ahead. For truly high quality businesses, the cost of capital will fluctuate far more wildly than the likely returns on capital. If, during the last hundred years, stocks really were far cheaper than they should have been, is there any reason to believe stock prices will return to past levels? The past is often a pretty good predictor of the future – but, not always. It’s difficult to say whether, over the next few decades, valuations will, on average, be higher or lower than they are today. However, it isn’t all that difficult to say whether, at some point over the next few decades, valuations will be higher or lower than they are today. The answer to that question is almost certainly yes. They will be higher and they will be lower. Maybe for a few years or a few months. Maybe for a full decade. I don’t know. What I do know is that value investors will have opportunities to make investments with a true margin of safety. But, should they wait? That’s the most difficult question. Today, I am not finding opportunities that look particularly attractive when compared to the best opportunities of past years. But, I am still able to find a few (in fact, a very few) situations where the expected annual rate of return is greater than 15%. That will be more than enough to beat the market. It will also likely be enough to provide a material increase in after-tax purchasing power. That’s not guaranteed, but it hardly seems holding cash would offer the better odds in this regard. So, is an expected annual rate of return of 15% good enough? Is it reasonable to bet on the good opportunity that is currently available instead of waiting for the great opportunity that may yet become available? I’ll leave that for you to decide.

         
    Struggling to identify the direction of the market

     

    If you know the pitfalls of trad¬ing, you can easily avoid them. Small mistakes are inevitable, such as entering the wrong stock symbol or incorrectly setting a buy level. But these are forgivable, and, with luck, even profitable. What you have to avoid, however, are the mistakes due to bad judgment rather than simple errors. These are the “deadly” mistakes which ruin entire trading careers instead of just one or two trades. To avoid these pitfalls, you have to watch yourself closely and stay diligent. Think of trading mistakes like driving a car on icy roads: if you know that driving on ice is dangerous, you can avoid traveling in a sleet storm. But if you don’t know about the dangers of ice, you might drive as if there were no threat, only realizing your mistake once you’re already off the road. One of the first mistakes new traders make is sinking a lot of wasted time and effort into predicting legitimate trends. Traders can use very complicated formulas, indictors, and systems to identify possible trends. They’ll end up plotting so many indicators on a single screen that they can’t even see the prices anymore. The problem is that they lose sight of simple decisions about when to buy and when to sell. The mistake here is trying to understand too much at once. Some people think that the more complicated their system is, the better it will be at “predicting” trends. This is almost always an illusion. Depending too much on complicated systems makes you completely lose sight of the basic principle of trading: buy when the market is going up and sell when it’s going down. Since you want to buy and sell early in a trend, the most important thing to discover is when a trend beginsplicated indicators only obscure this information. Remember to keep it simple: one of the easiest ways to identify a trend is to use trendlines. Trendlines are straightforward ways to let you know when you are seeing an uptrend (when prices make a series of higher highs and higher lows) and downtrends (when prices show lower highs and lower lows). Trendlines show you the lower limits of an uptrend or the upper limits of a downtrend and, most importantly, can help you see when a trend is starting to change. Once you get comfortable plotting trendlines, you can use them to decide when to start taking action. Only after using these early indicators should you start using more specific strategies to determine your exact buy or sell point. Moving averages, turtle trading, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are some examples of more complex indicators and systems that are available. But only use them after you’ve determined if the market is trending or not.

         
    Successful investors have learned to talk their walk

     

    Today, English is the most widely spoken and written language on the planet. English was first spoken in Britain by Germanic tribes in the Fifth Century AD. At that time it was known as the Old English (Anglo-Saxon) period. During the Middle English period (1150-1500 AD), many Old English word endings were replaced by prepositions like by, with, and from. We are currently in the Modern English period which started in the Sixteenth Century. The number of words in English has grown from 50,000 to 60,000 words in Old English to about a million today; the largest of all languages by far. An average educated person knows about 20,000 words and uses only about 2,000 words in a week. Despite its widespread use, there are only about 350 million people who use it as their mother tongue. It is the official language of the Olympics. More than half of the world's technical and scientific periodicals as well three quarters of the world's mail, and its telexes and cables are in English. About 80% of the information stored in the world's computers (like this text) are also in English. English is transmitted to more than 100 million people everyday by 5 of the largest broadcasting companies (CBS, NBC, ABC, BBC, CBC). It seems like English will remain the most widely used language for some time. The field of finance was pioneered by the United States of America as an extension of mercantilism. This was at a time when study of anything but economics was considered unworthy as compared to hard sciences like math, chemistry and physic and kissing up in the king’s court was highly regarded. The first business schools were established in the United States for this reason and still maintain their dominance. Finance has many words such as “put” and “call” for which there are no translations in other languages. It is critical that you develop your financial vocabulary. My understanding of the financial vocabulary is vast compared to the average person because of my Ph. D. that I hold in the field as well as my investing experience as a futures and options trader and long term stock investor. Many years of study at the doctoral level combined with direct practice in investments has allowed me to develop a vast financial vocabulary. This allows me to capture the essence of investment readings and conversations that the average person does not understand. Many investors fail not for lack of intelligence (I am of average intelligence) but lack of comprehension of what makes the stock market tick. This is due, in great part, to a lack of vocabulary that the common man on the street has not developed. Take the time to develop your financial vocabulary and you will excel over time as an investor!

         
     
         
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