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    Free Essay
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    A call on the price of uranium

     

    Interviewer: Before we talk about the potential of uranium shortages and the steep price rise in that energy source, could you explain how you got started with this idea, and what is the philosophy behind Strathmore’s acquisition program of uranium properties? Dev Randhawa: Several years ago, Strathmore Minerals started with the idea of acquiring properties “out of the money” at very cheap prices in the belief that the uranium prices would recover so that our assets would be worth more. No one was paying attention to the commodity we chose: uranium. Strathmore Minerals is basically a call on the price of uranium. That’s how we started the company. This strategy is similar to what Lumina Copper (AMEX: LCC) used and what Silver Standard used. For example, the chairman of Silver Standard Resources (NASDAQ: SSRI) is on our board of directors. Our first step was to buy every pound we could for as cheaply as possible. The second step is to buy property that we think we can put into production. We are actively looking for those. Interviewer: But uranium has a powerful environmental stigma. Why, then, are you enthusiastic about this type of energy source? Dev Randhawa: As with most people, when I began investigating uranium, I thought this was bad stuff. I thought of Three Mile Island and everything else. The more homework I did on this, the more I realized that nuclear power is clean and safe. That is primarily what uranium is used for now. It should be known that no one ever died at Three Mile Island. No one actually died at Chernobyl. Yes, people got sickpare that to coal or the oil spills in the fossil fuel sector, and the damage it has done to the environment. The problem is no one is championing nuclear energy. Frankly, the “greenies” have done a great job of burying the story. As I did homework, I found out France relies on nuclear power for about 78 to 80 percent of its electricity needs. I realized that somebody did a great job lobbying and built a very unhealthy picture toward uranium, when really it’s needed. We don’t talk about the cost of coal. We don’t talk about global warming. But, look at what coal has done. Global warming is a function of fossil fuels. That is why you are seeing a growing positive response to nuclear power. For example, one company has applied to put a new nuclear reactor into the US. Interviewer: To what do you attribute the recent, steep price rise in uranium? Dev Randhawa: Since last year, the price of uranium (U3O8) has climbed back steeply back up. At one point, the price was moving up about $1/pound per month. Uranium’s price is more in line with the price of oil as opposed to other commodities. For a long time, we’ve only produced on the average about 90 million pounds, when we needed 140 (million pounds). There’s been an imbalance for a number of years. This extra came from foreign sources, or from internal US inventories. Since the 1980s, we’ve been using more uranium than we have been producing in the western world. As a result, the extra that we’ve needed has come from Russia, the US government or inventory that utilities had. Interviewer: But most investors, let alone the consumer, don’t know that uranium’s spot price has nearly tripled, since bottoming three years ago. Why is that? Dev Randhawa: Uranium only makes up one percent of the cost of running a nuclear reactor. The biggest factor in why uranium prices can go up, even more rapidly than gold, is that uranium is insensitive to its use. Uranium prices can go much higher. In casual conversations with a few Toronto analysts, some believe it can go up to $80 or $100/pound. For example, if the price of gold tomorrow went to $800/ounce, it will affect someone’s purchasing decision. The guy might say, “I was going to buy this ring and now it’s up 70 percent because the price of gold is up. Maybe I will buy a silver ring instead.” The same occurs with other commodities. People may change their purchasing decision based on a commodity price doubling. If the price of uranium went to $44/pound, the average consumer’s electricity bill might go up a few dollars. It is not going to force someone to turn off their power. However, if the price of oil doubled tomorrow, many of us would be driving smaller vehicles. It would make a fundamental difference in how we behave. That’s not going to happen with the price of uranium. It’s like buying pencils for your office. It’s not going to change the way you do business. Even if no nuclear reactors come onboard for the next few years, the ones already there will need the pounds (of uranium). We have a shortage coming up. Interviewer: Why do you believe a uranium shortage is in the cards? Dev Randhawa: Bottom line is: the nuclear reactors are going to run out of fuel. You have to know that permitting takes a long time in the uranium industry. It’s not like finding a gold property tomorrow and maybe two years from now you are pouring gold. Typically, the permit takes at least three years out. Because nuclear reactors need it, that’s what is causing the price rise. Demand has kept going higher, but production has fallen off the chart. In this industry there are only about half a dozen companies exploring for uranium. At one time, back in the late 1970s and early 1980s, there were almost 150 uranium companies. There hasn’t been any underground mining since the early 1990s. And that doesn’t even include a wild card: there has been talk that by 2020, 90 percent of the nuclear reactors coming onboard will be for China. Interviewer: And what would reverse uranium’s steep price rise? Dev Randhawa: The only thing that could kill this market would be if Russia discovered it had a lot more pounds to sell. Or the US government, through USEG, came up with more pounds. When we first entered the market, eight years ago uranium rose to around $17-$18/pound. Then it fell. What happened was the U. S. government sold their uranium to a private group, who turned around and dumped it into the market, from then until last year. In October of last year, the Russians were also dumping uranium onto the market for their hard cash. Interviewer: If replacement value for uranium comes in the form of exploration costs to find and mine this energy source, what would that cost be? Dev Randhawa: Realistically, it would be $20 to $22/pound. I know some are going to say they can do it for less. By the time you take your exploration costs, development costs, and so on, you really need to get $22 to $25 for most properties to go into production and still make money. That’s why most of what you see in the market are ISL (in situ leach) projects. On one property we discovered, it would cost between $16 and $17/ pound to pull it out of the ground. But on others, it might take $20 - 22/pound to pull it out of the ground, after labor costs and sell it on a forward contract. Canada is producing the most uranium because of the grades. Some say Canada has the lowest cost, but that’s not quite accurate. What they mean to say is that the cash costs are the lowest. People forget that it costs up to $2 billion to put some of these into production. Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) was a creature of the government at one time. They were treated that way. Interviewer: Earlier you noted that investing in Strathmore Minerals was “basically a call on the price of uranium.” Can you clarify what you meant by that? Dev Randhawa: As uranium prices, the share price of Strathmore Minerals should rise. If you look at Bema (Amex:BGO), when gold prices were at $265/ounce, what was it worth? As the price of gold moved up, it had value. Has it gone into production yet? No. Silver Standard (NASDAQ:SSRI) is similar, but it has had to tell its story because people are so focused on gold. The key for investors is not to go where the crowds go, but to go where you can find value. If you believe that nuclear power is the place to be, and the shortage is real, you have got to own uranium stocks. Interviewer: What sets Strathmore Minerals apart from any other exploration companies in this sector? Dev Randhawa: I challenge any junior exploration company to show an individual who has actually put an ISL (in situ leach) uranium mine into production, including Cameco. They just aren’t around because the industry has been dead since the early 1980s. There aren’t many experts left in this business. The last standing geologist, which Cogema had, was David Miller, who is now working with Strathmore Minerals, as our head consultant. He is the one who has put the Strathmore strategy together. We’ve been looking in southern and eastern Africa. Strathmore is going wherever there are pounds that others have overlooked. Our competitive edge is a database we acquired from Kerr McGee (NYSE: KMD), which used to be number one in the uranium industry. Recently, we announced properties in Wyoming that could be satellite ISLs. We have enough pounds there that we could throw one of them into production. But we still need higher prices. We are still in the acquisition stage. Strathmore is going to be very aggressive in picking up properties that we think have pounds in the ground or smaller properties that we think can be ISL-able in the US. Everything we’re looking at in the US is for ISL. In Canada, we have over 700,000 hectares in the Athabascan region. That’s a major asset for us. It’s one of the richest areas in the world for uranium. Some of our targets are near existing mines. In Quebec, we’ve got a large property that was drilled by Uranerz. Robert Quartermain has certainly been a part of that strategy. That’s what he did with Silver Standard, and that’s what we’re doing here. We are aggressively going after properties. When sophisticated investors meet our team, they see the story we’ve got and they see our management. You’ll see why we were able to millions of dollars in financings. Our strategy has been to buy the has-been properties, the low fruit in all the trees. And that’s what we’ve been doing. ***************************************** Devinder Randhawa Mr. Randhawa founded Strathmore Minerals Corp. in 1996 and is currently the Company's CEO. Mr. Randhawa also founded and is currently the President of RD Capital Inc., a privately held consulting firm providing venture capital and corporate finance services to emerging companies in the resources and non-resource sectors both in Canada and the US. Prior to founding RD Capital Inc., Mr. Randhawa was in the brokerage industry for 6 years as an investment advisor and corporate finance analyst. Mr. Randhawa was formerly the President of Lariat Capital Inc. which merged with Medicure in November 1999 and the was the founder and former President and CEO of Royal County Minerals Corp. which was taken over by Canadian Gold Hunter (formerly International Curator) in July 2003. Mr. Randhawa also founded Predator Capital Inc., which became Predator Exploration. Mr. Randhawa received a Bachelors Degree in Business Administration with Honors from Trinity Western College of Langley, British Columbia in 1983 and received his Masters in Business Administration from the University of British Columbia in 1985.

         
    A cheap strategy to play microsoft

     

    Bill Gates is super rich but his once high-flying software company has been in the doldrums since mid-2002 after falling from the $35 level. The problem with Microsoft (MSFT) has been its failure to grow both its revenues and earnings at the superlative rates the company once enjoyed. Any company the size of Microsoft, with a market-cap of $242 billion, will find growth an issue because of its size. But this is not to say the stock is dead. Far from it, Microsoft remains a viable long-term software company and is cash rich with $34 billion or $3.28 per share in cash. This gives the stock plenty of financial flexibility to develop or buy growth technologies. Microsoft just announced it would spend $1.1 billion in R&D at its MSN Internet unit in the FY07. And according to the Wall Street Journal, Microsoft is exploring the possibility of taking a stake in Internet media company Yahoo (YHOO) to take on Internet advertising behemoth Google (GOOG). But with an estimated five-year earnings growth rate of a pitiful 12%, the company has its work cut out for it. Trading at 16.30x its estimated FY07 EPS of $1.44, the stock is not expensive but appears to be priced not as a growth stock. Its PEG on the surface of 1.51 is not cheap, but if you discount in the cash of $3.28 per share, the estimated PEG falls to around 1,0, a decent valuation. Also, if Microsoft can improve on its estimated 12% growth rate, the PEG would decline further. The fact is Microsoft at the current price deserves a look. If you want to play the stock but don’t want to shell out the $2,347 for a 100-share block, you may want to take a look at the long-term options, also known as LEAPS. For instance, the in-the-money January 2008 $22.50 Microsoft Call LEAPS not set to expire until January 18, 2008 currently costs $380 a contract (100 shares). This means you risk a total of $380 for the chance to participate in the potential upside of 100 shares of Microsoft over the next 20 months. The breakeven price is $26.30. If Microsoft breaks $26.30, you would begin to make money on your LEAPS. Conversely, if Microsoft fails to do anything, your maximum risk is $380 on the initial option play. Warning: The aforementioned example is for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as an actual option strategy. Due to the higher risk inherent in options, I recommend you speak with an investment professional before deciding to employ any strategy involving options.

         
    A company s story must carry impingement value to obtain widespread publicity

     

    In two previous columns, we talked about how quality management attracts Publicity, or PR. Nearly every company is constantly trying to attract the attention of the media. What brings the media to a company’s door? That’s what every public relations man or woman would love to know. For this is what PR people get paid to obtain for their clients. Quality management is certainly a key motivation in attracting a reporter’s attention. This helps persuade the reporter or a radio/TV producer that the proposed interview isn’t going to be with someone who has “nothing to say” or just rehashing a clichй or tired, old story. The higher the title and the better known a company, the greater the “impingement” a PR pitch (that’s what publicity people use to sell a reporter) impacts upon a member of the media. If someone from the publicity department at Microsoft calls Fortune magazine to ask about profiling Bill Gates, the pitch will have major impingement value. Few names have this kind of clout, either personally or corporately. In any event, the senior editor of the major magazine will still inquire about the story angle. The editor will want to know, “What are we going to talk about?” Ultimately, it is the outstanding story that sells magazines or newspapers, not just the big name. Not all such stories involve a big name speaking or spouting his thoughts for the day. Often, better stories evolve when there is a strong newsworthy angle. Let’s look at two recent stories – one which involves a uranium company and another one about a coalbed methane (CBM) company, which we’ve covered in this column. On Thursday, Pacific Asia China Energy (PACE) was featured in the Financing section of Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper. Headlined “High-Energy Performer,” the opening sentences told us why the reporter was interested: “PACE holds contracts to help China explore for and develop its coalbed methane (CBM) resources – fuel China needs to help satisfy its energy demands.” The big story, which drew the newspaper to Pacific Asia China Energy, was China. PACE piggybacked that story because the company may be helping to offer a legitimate solution to the country’s energy mix. Part of the big story is the possible size of the recoverable gas, estimated in a technical report by Sproule International to be as large as 11.2 trillion cubic feet of gas. Those two items enhanced the reporter’s interest in PACE. China needs alternative energy sources, such as CBM, to improve their energy mix – from a near total dependence upon coal. And, PACE has a potentially huge resource, which could last a good number of years. Such a gas resource could be sufficiently large to make an impact on China. After all, China has proven reserves of a little more than 30 trillion cubic feet. Another 11 trillion cubic feet, should the potential be proven up, would represent a significant increase of available gas in a very large country. By itself, this could later develop into a major international energy story, reported upon by a great number of news media. Another impingement about the reporter is having the satisfaction of reporting upon a good story, well before others write the story. Chatter in the newsroom: “Did you hear about PACE’s gas discovery in China, Bob?” Bob’s Reply: “Oh that one. Yeah, I wrote about it eight months ago!” Therefore, there are multiple impingement points in this story. Each “draw,” or a reason to attract eyeballs to the story, is another point the story must score, for the reporter and his editor, to overcome the hurdles of being featured in a major publication. China is a draw. The size of the PACE coalbed methane gas resource is a draw. The potential impact upon China’s energy mix is a draw. Writing about it before the rest of the pack jumps on the bandwagon? That’s a draw, too. In this case, four draws sufficiently attracted media coverage for this small CBM development company. Sometimes, the timing is just perfect, and the overpowering “big story” accidentally introduces a lucky guy onto the world’s stage. On the same Thursday, the PACE story was carried in the Globe and Mail, the Chief Executive of a tiny Canadian uranium company impinged on a Russian news service reporter in Hong Kong. Such was the good fortune for Craig Lindsay, a Certified Financial Analyst, who has spent more than 16 years in corporate finance, investment banking and business development, according to the website of Magnum Uranium, for which he now serves as Chief Executive. While Magnum has a market capitalization of about $15 million, and Lindsay is neither a geologist nor engineer, RIA Novosti news agency touted him as a “well-known energy expert.” Admittedly, Lindsay gave a great speech at the Hong Kong Club for foreign correspondents. Cleverly, he announced, “Uranium may be the next oil,” during his speech. As many other industry experts have predicted, Lindsay also forecast uranium “may hit $50/pound by the end of the year.” So many are now announcing this it is likely to become a self-fulfilling prophesy. What elevated Lindsay’s publicity was not what he said in his speech. Most of his commentary has been already been reported in numerous publications, including in our columns. (What reporters really hate is rehashing old news to give someone publicity!) It was to whom Lindsay was speaking, and especially the “timing” as to when it was said. Here is how Craig Lindsay got his “15 minutes of fame.” About six hours earlier, the very same Russian news agency reported that Russia and Kazakhstan had signed a uranium deal worth $1 billion. The photos of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev appeared as the photo op which goes with such really big stories. This was a major event involving two very big names, and among the biggest names and countries in the uranium sector. This was also Russia’s first contract to import uranium; Kazakhstan is the world’s third largest uranium producer. All of this is “big news.” The clever Russian freelance reporter, who attended the Lindsay speech in Hong Kong, probably text-messaged or emailed his editor by Blackberry, tried to piggyback the Russian-Kazak story with his own story. Yes, that is how timing works. As soon as a major event takes place, other journalists rush to piggyback the event with “their” story. The Russian reporter scored points with his editor and got his story filed (slang for published). Two cunning gentlemen, the Russian stringer (slang for freelance reporter), and Craig Lindsay (whose name was spelled Kreig Lindsay in the article), both accomplished their purposes. Mr. Lindsay got his company into the world’s spotlight. The Russian stringer got a great story. The reporter threw up a softball question, for which Mr. Lindsay supplied the desired answer. What was the question the reporter asked Lindsay? That’s pretty obvious from what the reporter published in his article. Here is a clip from the Moscow News article: Foreign investors are ready to invest in Russia’s uranium industry, if Moscow wants this to happen and establishes a necessary legal base,” Lindsay said. “I believe that Russia is one of the most promising directions for this kind of investments, it is an undeveloped market, full of opportunities. My company will be the first to come to Russia, if the necessary conditions are created,” he added. Nowhere in Lindsay’s speech did Magnum Uranium’s Chief Executive discuss investing in Russia. However, the reporter NEEDED a good quote. It had to tie-in with “investing in Russia for uranium development.” Lindsay accommodated. He didn’t commit to investing in Russia, but he kept the door open. Magnum Uranium recently announced the acquisition of a 1,080-acre land package in Converse County, Wyoming. The company is also exploring for uranium in both Wyoming and the Athabasca Basin. Its finances are probably already stretched from both exploration and acquisition activities. Magnum’s market capitalization would probably be insufficient to launch investments into Russia, at this time. However, Lindsay did a great job getting his company this caliber of publicity. And he got the uranium sector excellent publicity. He capitalized upon an impinging story – a story that did show up on the world’s radar – by correctly supplying an answer the Russian journalist was trying to prod out of him. This is the essence of how journalists and publicity-seekers work together. If the PR person gives the journalist the story angle he is looking for within the bigger story, chances are it will appear in print. Piggybacking a “main event” is the most common way to increase one’s impingement value to a reporter. And by being a cunning interviewee for his Russian reporter, Craig Lindsay just got Magnum Uranium into this column as well!

         
    A disciplined and organized approach to trading in the stock market

     

    : A Winning Approach to Trading in the Stock Market Many traders lose simply out of ignorance. They base their trades on hunches, news, or tips from friends, and do not define specific risk and profit objectives before placing trades.

    Others have the merit of educating themselves but fall victims of their emotions. They hold on to losing positions hoping they will turn into winners and sell winners by fear of losing a small gain. They overtrade to fulfill a need for action or by fear of missing out. The consistent winners follow a winning approach:
    • They have a strategy to enter and exit trades
    • They use good money management
    • They take consistent actions, they follow a trading plan
    • They keep good records so they can review their actions
    • They avoid overtrading
    • They have a winning attitude
    A strategy to enter and exit trades You need to a strategy to put the odds in your favor for each trade you take. Your strategy should be as objective as possible and include the following elements:
    • Entry: conditions required before you can enter a trade - may include technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or both.
    • Initial stop loss: price at which you will close the entire position if it does not go in your favor. The risk per share is the difference between the entry price and the initial stop.
    • Initial price objective: price at which you will take some or all profits if the trade goes in your favor.
    • Trade management: set of rules that dictates your actions while a trade is opened. It may include trailing stops, closing position, etc…

    For every action you take, the reason should be clearly described in your strategy.

    Money management rules to keep losses small The goal of money management is to ensure your survival by avoiding risks that could take you out of business. Your money management rules should include the following:

    • Maximum amount at risk for each trade. The different between your entry price and your initial stop loss is your risk per share. Your maximum amount at risk for each trade determines the share size.
    • Maximum amount at risk for all your opened positions.
    • Maximum daily and weekly amount lost before you stop trading – avoid trying to trade your way out of a hole after a loosing streaks.

    During your learning phase, your goal should be to survive, not to make money. Start with low limits and raise them as you become a consistent winner otherwise you will simply go broke faster.

    Good record keeping Although the process of gaining experience cannot be rushed, it can be made much more efficient by keeping good records of your actions. Good records will allow you to:

    • Review your actions at the end of each day to make sure you followed you strategy, not your emotions.
    • Learn from your losses – they cost you money, make sure you get the education in return.

    You should also keep a journal of your observations.

    A trading plan to keep emotions out of your decisions During trading hours, emotions will turn smart people into idiots. Therefore you have to avoid having to make decisions during those hours. This requires a detailed trading plan that includes your strategy and your money management rules.

    For every action you take during trading hours, the reason should not be greed or fear. The reason should be because it is in the plan. With a good plan, your task becomes one of patience and discipline.

    You have to follow the plan without exception. Any valid reason for an exception - for example, correcting an oversight - should become part of the plan.

    Overtrading Sometimes the best thing to do is to do nothing. Not trading on those bad days is key to becoming a consistent winner – in some situations it is very tempting to overtrade:
    • If you trade to fulfill a need for action, to relieve boredom
    • If you can’t find the proper setup but can’t wait
    • If you fear you are missing out on a great trade or on a great market
    • If you want to make up for losses (revenge)
    • If you trade to feel like you are working instead of sitting around. Trading involves a lot of work other than the actual buying and selling.
    You should not trade under the following conditions  
    • You are not following my trading plan
    • You have reached your daily or weekly maximum loss
    • You are sick or very tired
    • You are very emotional (upset, pressured to make money, self-esteem destroyed)
    • You are using new tools you are not completely familiar with
    • You need time to work on your trading plan
    A winning attitude Losing traders look for a “sure thing”, hang on hope, and avoid accepting small losses. Their trading is based on emotions. You must treat trading as a probability game in which you don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. All you need to know is that the odds are in your favor before you put a trade. If you believe in your edge, which is you believe that the odds in your favor for each trade you enter, then you should have no expectation other than something will happen.

    Your attitude will have a direct influence on your trading results:

    • Take responsibility for all your actions – don’t blame the market or world events.
    • Trade to trade well and for the love of trading, not to trade often and not for the money. The money will come as a result of trading well.
    • Don’t be influenced by the opinions of others. Reach your own decisions and follow them.
    • Never think that taking money from the market is easy and never assume that you know enough.
    • Have no particular expectation when you place a trade because you know that anything can happen.
    • Don’t try to guess the future – trading is a game of probabilities.
    • Use your head and stay calm – don’t get excited or depressed.
    • Handle trading as a serious intellectual pursuit.
    • Don’t count how much money you have made or lost while you are in a trade - focus on trading well.
    • Trading Framework was designed to help you build those crucial elements into your trading. tradingframework

         
    A review of the stock market crash of 1929

     

    The great Wall Street Crash just previous to the Great Depression of the 1930s has become a part of North American legend. People speak of the crash, its causes and its consequences, with great authority, although few people actually understand the fundamentals that led to the crash, and fewer still the intricacies involved in it. This article will detail a short review of the crash, analyze some of the myths evolving out of this period in American history, and also answer some questions such as why the crash happened, and if something like it could happen again. The crash began on October 24, 1929 and the slide continued for three business days, ending on October 29 1929 (as we can see, the crash did not occur in the ‘30s, as many people believe). The first day of the crash is known as Black Thursday, and the last day is called Black Tuesday. The crash began when a rush of nervous spenders panicked and rushed to sell their shares - over 13 million stocks were sold on that first Thursday. In an attempt to halt the slide, several bankers and businessmen gathered and tried to rally the numbers by buying up blue-chip stocks, a tactic that had worked in 1909. This was to prove only a temporary fix, however. Over the weekend, while the stock markets were closed, the media added to the fear of investors as the published the wrap ups to the week. By Monday, a fearful populace, nerves on edge due to the reports, were waiting to liquidate. Again, industrial giants and other businesses tried to halt the panic by demonstrating their faith in the system by buying more stock, but the slide would not stop. The market did not recover its value until almost a quarter of a decade later. As with any legend, the Wall Street Crash of 1929 carries with it several mythical misconceptions. To start with, the Crash did not lead to the Great Depression. In fact, many financial analysts and historians are still not sure to what degree the Crash even contributed. The economic forecasts were poor before Wall Street fell, and it was poor people who could not even afford to think about stocks that were the most affected by the Depression. For these people, poverty was mostly caused by very poor farming conditions. There was also not the onslaught of suicides that is commonly referred to - a few investors did succumb to depression, but their numbers are generally agreed to have been very small indeed - enough to count on one hand. What was it that caused this Crash? Because the market had been doing so well, many Americans were investing - many more, in fact, than could afford it. These people were investing on speculation. This means that they were buying stocks with an eye to selling them in the future for a higher profit, and to achieve the capital to invest they borrowed from banks. When prices began to drop, people realized they would not be able to pay their debt, let alone make any money,. They rushed to get out as soon as possible. To prevent panics such as this in the future, buying on speculation is now illegal.

         
    A spiraling market and rising penny stock opportunities

     

    It's been a wild and wooly couple of weeks on the international stock markets. But is the recent slide grinding to a halt...or just taking a breather before tumbling some more? And more importantly, what does it mean to astute penny stock investors? Wall Street recently stumbled to its worst week of the year, and global stock markets fell dramatically on concerns about rising interest rates and slowing growth. After rising almost 9% in the first four months of the year, the Dow Jones industrial average has fallen about 6.5% from a six-year high, reached May 10, 2006. Stocks have been ailing because penny stock investors fear the Fed could be so focused on inflation that it ignores signs of an economic slowdown, raises interest rates too high and sends the economy into a recession. Global stock markets were sent reeling last week after golden-tongued U. S. Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke shocked penny stock investors in saying the Fed will continue raising interest rates to keep inflation in check. And that decision will have a direct impact on the penny stock market. Higher interest rates hurt penny stock prices because investors believe it will curb economic growth and corporate profits. But why is inflation heating up? Higher energy costs. Traders and penny stock investors are also worried that with the hurricane season officially under way, Gulf Coast refineries and oil production sites could be damaged again this summer and fall. And higher interest rates have the ability to affect the entire economy. Finance charges on credit cards will rise. So too will rates on mortgages and home equity loans, putting additional pressure on homebuyers and a softening housing market. Ultimately, it will cost more to borrow for expansion. But does this signal doom-and-gloom for the penny stock market? Au contraire. While the temptation to sell everything can be overwhelming, some see this as a great opportunity. "I would not be selling. I would tend to be buying," said one New York analyst. So how exactly is this an opportunity? It just so happens that many companies caught in the market's downward spiral are cheaper than they were a few weeks ago. And as any seasoned penny stock investor will tell you, buying a great penny stock when it's been beaten down isn't a bad way to make money over the long haul. If you can stomach some of the volatility that is. While many blue chip investors have difficulty handling the market's unpredictability...it's par for the course. So, "snap out of it," said another watcher. A month of dizzying selling has brought the markets into an attractive range. Is it possible the markets will fall more? Absolutely. After all, no penny stock is a sure thing. But one thing is certain: "Stocks are much cheaper now than they were two months ago."

         
    A trading strategy that consistently beats all major indexes

     

    Are you looking to outperform the market and optimize your profits but are not sure how to pick the right stocks? Has investing become a chore? Do you find yourself investing in hot stocks after they have made their big move? Would you like to learn how I increased my portfolio by over 400% in under 7 years? Do you want to discover how I have outperformed the market over the past 3 years by a margin of 5 to 1? Do You Hate Research? . . . I do! I have always wanted to find an investment strategy that made sense. An investment strategy in which I do not need to know the intricacies of the market, predict market trends or follow specific stocks. How can I get the inside information of what is hot before the rest of the market knows? I can't. Nor do I need to. Plus, I don't have that kind of time to commit to in-depth research. Like you, I have a regular job that I need to devote my time to. I am not a day trader; nor do I want to spend all of my free time on the computer doing research. Always following the stock market and getting stock quotes is not how I want to spend my free time. I Avoid Individual Stocks . . . they are too unreliable! Everybody wants to buy low and sell high. While millions of people do make money this way (and many millions loose money), I have found an easier and more effective way to use the market to my advantage. I do not trade in stocks. I do what I can to avoid individual stocks. And I consistently beat the market . . . month after month after month. If not stocks, what's the alternative? Like many people, I got heavily involved in the stock market in the mid to late Nineties. Tech stocks were going through the roof and I, like everybody else, wanted a part of the action. It seemed an easy way to make money. Everybody was getting rich. You did not need a special investment strategy to beat the market. During this time, I engrossed myself in the financial markets. I wanted to learn as much as I could without giving up my day job. I was trying to find the next best tech stock, IPOs and the occasional pre-IPO offering. But it was not until I discovered options trading that I discovered an investment strategy (The Yager Trading Strategy) that can work in any kind of market . . . Bull, Bear or stagnant. That's right...OPTION trading! And I am not talking about stock options or writing covered calls. Options trading...I started selling options on S&P futures, using different methods and trading strategies. And I did well. VERY well. Between July 1998 and January 2000 (a span of 18 months), from my option trading system, I turned an initial $25,000 investment into $167,615. That's over 670% increase. And this was not paper money where you buy a stock and it has a certain listed value. This was real, taxed income. Profits collected on a monthly basis. Market fluctuations and volatility have diminished greatly since then...reducing the premiums. Those types of returns are no longer available, but the option trading strategy is still very sound. I still consistently beat the market. Even the years the DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P were all down, I posted more than a 22% gain. Learn the option trading strategy or see how to make money with this strategy. I describe the strategy and show actual recent trades on YagerInvesting. The information is FREE. No subscription required. This is a method for risk capital only. For the preceding 12 months (May '06 through April '07) this is how my strategy, The Yager Trading Strategy, performed: DJIA-----20.3% NASDAQ-----14.7% S & P 500-----17.3% Yager Trading Strategy-----32.2%

         
    Active stock market timing

     

    Copyright 2006 Equitrend, Inc. Much has been written about the virtues and dangers of active stock market trading, or “market timing.” Most of the pundits and so called "experts" will tell you that stock market timing doesn't work, that it's dangerous, and that "buy and hold" is the best and only way to invest. But this conventional wisdom is patently untrue. Here are the facts based on my research and extensive real time experience. If you want to be a successful stock market timer, you need three key elements: 1. A system that actually works. 2. Discipline to follow the system. 3. Patience to stick with the system long enough to make it work for you. And it’s tough to do all three. Here’s why: Most market timing systems don’t work. Or don’t work consistently enough to be valid. Some will work in trending markets but get slaughtered during flat times. Most systems don’t work in all markets. Investors lack the discipline to follow a proven system. Once an investor finds a viable program, he or she needs the discipline to follow it. Sadly, some either can’t or won’t do that. When they let their own judgment or intuitions interfere, they don’t get the results they want or could have enjoyed by simply following the buy and sell signals they receive. Investors lack the patience to stick with their system. Many investors are constantly in search of the Holy Grail, a program that never loses a trade. The fact is, no method will win every trade, and investors without patience will find themselves hopping from advisor to advisor with no rewards to show for their efforts. However, there are a number of proven systems available that recognize these pitfalls and successfully time the market to massive profits year after year. Anything you hear or read to the contrary is simply not true. Wall Street has a vested interest in opposing stock market timing because it is a threat to their very existence. Investors have two choices. They can pursue the conventional wisdom of buy and hold and hope for the best, or the modern investor can educate himself and find a timing system with which he is comfortable to protect and grow his wealth. There are a number of proven options available, but the absolute worst thing one can do is listen to the pundits who tell you that “stock market timing" doesn't work.

         
    Against the top down approach to picking stocks

     

    If you have heard fund managers talk about the way they invest, you know a great many employ a top down approach. First, they decide how much of their portfolio to allocate to stocks and how much to allocate to bonds. At this point, they may also decide upon the relative mix of foreign and domestic securities. Next, they decide upon the industries to invest in. It is not until all these decisions have been made that they actually get down to analyzing any particular securities. If you think logically about this approach for but a moment, you will recognize how truly foolish it is. A stock’s earnings yield is the inverse of its P/E ratio. So, a stock with a P/E ratio of 25 has an earnings yield of 4%, while a stock with a P/E ratio of 8 has an earnings yield of 12.5%. In this way, a low P/E stock is comparable to a high – yield bond. Now, if these low P/E stocks had very unstable earnings or carried a great deal of debt, the spread between the long bond yield and the earnings yield of these stocks might be justified. However, many low P/E stocks actually have more stable earnings than their high multiple kin. Some do employ a great deal of debt. Still, within recent memory, one could find a stock with an earnings yield of 8 – 12%, a dividend yield of 3- 5%, and literally no debt, despite some of the lowest bond yields in half a century. This situation could only come about if investors shopped for their bonds without also considering stocks. This makes about as much sense as shopping for a van without also considering a car or truck. All investments are ultimately cash to cash operations. As such, they should be judged by a single measure: the discounted value of their future cash flows. For this reason, a top down approach to investing is nonsensical. Starting your search by first deciding upon the form of security or the industry is like a general manager deciding upon a left handed or right handed pitcher before evaluating each individual player. In both cases, the choice is not merely hasty; it’s false. Even if pitching left handed is inherently more effective, the general manager is not comparing apples and oranges; he’s comparing pitchers. Whatever inherent advantage or disadvantage exists in a pitcher’s handedness can be reduced to an ultimate value (e. g., run value). For this reason, a pitcher’s handedness is merely one factor (among many) to be considered, not a binding choice to be made. The same is true of the form of security. It is neither more necessary nor more logical for an investor to prefer all bonds over all stocks (or all retailers over all banks) than it is for a general manager to prefer all lefties over all righties. You needn’t determine whether stocks or bonds are attractive; you need only determine whether a particular stock or bond is attractive. Likewise, you needn’t determine whether “the market” is undervalued or overvalued; you need only determine that a particular stock is undervalued. If you’re convinced it is, buy it – the market be damned! Clearly, the most prudent approach to investing is to evaluate each individual security in relation to all others, and only to consider the form of security insofar as it affects each individual evaluation. A top down approach to investing is an unnecessary hindrance. Some very smart investors have imposed it upon themselves and overcome it; but, there is no need for you to do the same.

         
    An analysis of overstock. com ostk

     

    Why is a value investor writing about an unprofitable internet company? Because value investing is about finding dollars that trade for fifty cents; with a market cap of less than 75% of sales, Overstock (OSTK) looks like it may be exactly that. But isn’t it too risky? The greatest risk in any investment is the risk of overpaying. So, the real question is: what is Overstock worth? I think it’s worth at least $1.5 billion. With Overstock’s market cap currently sitting around $500 million, my valuation certainly looks far fetched. But, there’s only one way to know for sure. Let’s take apart my argument piece by piece, and see if any of my assumptions are unreasonable. First Assumption: Over the next five years, Overstock will neither generate truly free cash flow nor consume cash. In other words, its free cash flow margin will average 0%. Cash generation in some years will exactly offset cash consumption in other years. Obviously, this assumption is unreasonable, because there is almost no chance the cash flows will exactly offset. That’s not a problem if it turns out Overstock does generate some free cash flow over the next five years. In that case, my assumption simply errs on the side of caution. If, however, it turns out Overstock actually consumes cash over the next five years, there is a problem – possibly a very big problem. So, which scenario is more likely? Overstock’s revenues are growing quickly. Gross margins look solid at 13.3% in 2004 and 14.9% over the last twelve months. Overstock’s unprofitability is the result of its selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) which have been growing exponentially. Will these expenses continue to grow? Yes, but not as fast as revenues. Over the last twelve months, Overstock’s spending on cap ex has been 5.6% of sales. That number is an aberration. In the long run, spending on cap ex should not exceed 3% of sales. Considering the business Overstock is in and the expected sales growth, the company will, more likely than not, generate some free cash flow over the next five years. Therefore, the assumption that Overstock will be cash flow neutral over the next five years is not overly optimistic. Second Assumption: Over the next five years, Overstock’s sales will grow by 15% annually. Is this an unreasonable assumption? Again, I don’t think it is. Very few industries are expected to grow as fast as eCommerce. Overstock’s revenue growth in 2003 and 2004 was over 100%. In the past year, that growth has slowed. However, it is still closer to 50% than it is to 15%. Overstock isn’t in a cyclical business. So, there is no reason to believe current sales are abnormally high. Also, all that spending on advertising is increasing consumers’ awareness of Overstock. A review of Overstock’s traffic data shows it has not only been gaining more visitors; it has also been climbing the ranks of the most popular web sites. While it is a long, long way from the Amazons, Yahoos, and eBays of the world (and will never reach those heights) Overstock is becoming a well known internet destination. This fact was most clearly evident in the weeks leading up to Christmas. Shoppers who visited Overstock during the holiday season obviously know it exists, and may very well return at some other point in the year. Analysts are predicting very high growth rates for Overstock; however, they are also recommending you sell the stock. I don’t put any weight in their estimates. But, for the other reasons given, I believe the assumption that Overstock will grow sales at 15% a year for the next five years is not unreasonable. Third Assumption: Six to ten years from today, Overstock will have a free cash flow margin of 3%. Ten years from today, Overstock’s free cash flow margin will rise to 4% and remain at that level. Now, of all the assumptions I’ve made, this one is the most questionable. Sure, Amazon has that kind of free cash flow margin, but Overstock isn’t Amazon, and it never will be Amazon. Overstock’s gross margins are less than Amazon’s. In fact, Overstock’s gross margins are less than Wal – Mart’s. However, Overstock’s fixed costs will eat up a much smaller portion of its sales than is the case over at Wal - Mart. If you compare Overstock to other online retailers, you will see that if Overstock does experience strong sales growth, a 3% free cash flow margin six years from now is not unreasonable. I assumed Overstock’s sustainable free cash flow margin will be 4%. There’s a case to be made that 4% is too high. I won’t make that case, because I don’t believe in it. Remember, that 4% number comes ten years out. That gives Overstock plenty of time to grow sales and thus reduce SG&A as a percentage of sales. Fourth Assumption: Six to ten years from today, Overstock will be growing sales by 12% a year; eleven to fifteen years from today, Overstock will be growing sales by 8% a year; thereafter, Overstock will grow sales by 4% a year. Let’s see what this really means. According to these assumptions, Overstock’s sales will be as follows: Today: $707 million 2011: $1.59 billion 2016: $2.71 billion 2021: $3.83 billion 2026: $4.66 billion 2031: $5.67 billion 2036: $6.90 billion Seven billion dollars is not an unreasonable target – if you have thirty years to achieve it. To put that figure in perspective, Amazon currently has sales of about $8 billion. So, even after thirty years, these assumptions don’t lead to Overstock reaching the same size as today’s Amazon. Don’t forget these numbers assume some inflation. For instance, if inflation averages 3% a year over the next thirty years, Overstock’s projected $6.90 billion in sales only translates to $2.84 billion in today’s dollars. So, these assumptions only lead to a fourfold increase in Overstock’s real sales over a period of thirty years. I think that’s pretty reasonable. If you take these four assumptions together, you get a value of $1.5 billion for Overstock. Today, Mr. Market is offering it for $500 million – that’s why I’m writing about an unprofitable internet company.

         
    An industry blueprint to stocks and shares

     

    In this day and age, a lot of things have changed from how they used to be, which can be new and exciting for most. Because of the large size of the stock market, beginner investors appear to feel overwhelmed as to where to even activate investing their money. To most people, the stock market presents a messy web of options but does not reveal the highway map of clarity to guide their way along way in their investment adventure. The key to investing in the stock market is to become as educated as it is possible so that you know exactly what is taking place at all times. This helps people to make plausible and sound decisions about their money, thus, dropping the stress involved with investing. The usual person, when beginning to entertain the idea of investing in the stock market, falls into one of two categories. Class one is the gambler who feels that investing is definitely a form of betting and no question what they do, they are certain that they will drop money slightly than make money. It seems that this opinion of investing in stocks is either formed from friends and family that have been baffled by the stock market or private experience and lost money. If someone has personally made losses in the stock market, it is pretty evident that they were not educated enough at the time of their investment in the stock market. Therefore, they must become educated as to what exactly the stock market is as well as how its system works in order to become a successful investor. Class two, on the other hand, represents the “go-getter” investor, which is an individual who knows that they should invest into the stock market for the safety of their monetary future, but they have absolutely no idea where to begin. The “go-getters” lean towards avoiding their monetary decisions and leave it up to professionals; therefore, they are powerless to justify why they own a certain stock. A usual “go-getter” operates in blind faith, as one stock goes up in value, they more than likely will hold it. The “go-getter” is in poorer shape than the gambler in that they will invest like everyone else and then wonder why they receive an unsatisfactory or devastating outcome. This just proves that the typical person should become thoroughly educated about the stock market as well as stocks before investment takes place. Essential to every economy is business...businesses that started out as small operations that have grown to become money making giants, raising capital by promoting stock in them to people who want to invest to make their futures financially secure. As small businesses start to grow, one of the supreme obstacles is generating enough money in order to develop into a superior operation. Businesses either scrounge the money in the form of a offer from a bank or venture capitalist, or someone that will invest money into a business in which they feel they will receive a high rate of return, or a reap from their investment into a business, in order to create the currency to expand. The most common choice for a business to gain money for the view of expansion is to take out a loan; however, there is no agreement that a bank will offer money to any given business. What we have explored up to now is the most important information you need to know. Now, let’s dig a little deeper. In this case, business owners roam to the stock market for help in the form of issuing stocks. Firm owners relinquish a tiny fraction of control over their business and in reciprocation; the stock market provides that business money that does not have to be salaried back, in order to guarantee expansion. As an added bonus, the business is permitted to “go public,” a saying that means a brand is selling stocks for itself for the first time, so that business owners no longer are required to borrow money from banks because they can merely use their own stocks for getting monies to use for expansion. Thus, as the business grows and sells their stocks to people, the better chance a sponsor has on gaining a return on their investment as opposed to a loss. As an investor, it is to your advantage to efficiently study each and every business in which you propose to hold stocks. The more facts you know about any certain business, the easier it is to make a plausible decision as to whether you should hold stocks or want a different business in which to work with. Try searching for a particular keyword from the title of this article on your search engine and you are sure to find a wealth of knowledge.

         
    An inside look at cameco s smith ranch uranium facility

     

    Cameco Corp (NYSE: CCJ) is the 800-pound gorilla of the uranium sector. Cameco is to uranium what Wal-Mart is to retailing, and what Saudi Aramco is to petroleum. On a percentage basis, Cameco dominates its sector more so than either of the two. Cameco probably has more clout in turning off the electricity now powering your computer than any other company in the world. This week, the spot price of uranium rose to $40/pound, for the first time since Ronald Reagan was president. That should help grow the uranium business in Wyoming by leaps and bounds. In Part 5, we look at the largest U. S. uranium producer, Cameco-owned Power Resources. Understanding ‘In Situ Leach’ Uranium Extraction “It took $284 million Canadian to build, and it operated with 546 people,” said Patrick Drummond, Plant Superintendent for Cameco subsidiary Power Resources’ Smith Ranch facility. He was pointing to Kerr McGee’s Smith Ranch underground mine on the wall across from desk, which was later converted into an ISL operation, first run by Rio Algom. “This operation cost US$44 million to build and 80 people to start.” Drummond was referring to the In Situ Leaching (ISL) uranium extraction facility, known as Smith Ranch. “That should give you the scale of the ISL versus an underground mine,” he explained. The aging, but sprightly, Drummond knows his uranium. He’s worked in underground mines, open pit mines, and uranium mills since 1980. From 1996 to the present day, he’s worked in Wyoming for Power Resources at the company’s ISL uranium extraction facility. “I started off in the coal mines in Scotland,” boasted Drummond, who claims he can spot a coal miner in a bar, just by looking at the veins in his hands. “I worked up in Elliot Lake and the massive underground mines up there.” Clasping his hands and looking down, he seemed to apologize, “It’s also a massive environmental problem to clean up, a major undertaking. Quirk Lake was one of the bigger mines up there. It cost a lot of money to clean it up.” The New Face of Wyoming’s Uranium Mining is the ISL uranium extraction method, also known as solution mining. The differences between mining uranium underground and an ISL operation are both minor and vast. Both methods mine uranium beneath the surface. So both methods are underground mining. However, that is where the similarities end. “With underground, you bring up the ore, grate it, crush it, and extract the uranium from the ore,” Drummond explained the basics of underground uranium mining. “That ore becomes waste, which is known as tailings. You then have to service these big tailings and then decommission.” ISL is the new breed of mining. “With ISL, we don’t do that,” continued Drummond in his day-long lecture to our editorial team during a VIP tour of the Smith Ranch facility. “To mine underground with ISL, you drill the holes where the uranium is and extract the uranium from the underground ore,” he said. “Then, you process that into yellowcake.” It’s not all wine and roses for Drummond, though. He pines away for his underground mines, “From a mining perspective, it’s not mining so it is not as exciting. Drummond laughs, “ISL is like a water treatment plant. We take water out and remove some ions.” He makes it sound so simple, “We remove the water from the underground and remove the ions, being the uranium ion. Then, we put the water back under the ground.” All of the water goes back into the ground? Actually no. Drummond explained, “We take our water out and we put 99 percent back in. The one percent we call ‘bleed.’ It’s a control function.” Drummond cites more comparables, “To start an underground mine, it would take a year to do the shaft before you could start mining. Then, there’s the development cost of the mill complex. You have all that outlay of cost before you can get any benefit. It’s expensive to do underground -- $200 million plus – because of the upfront development costs.” From his perspective, the miner in Drummond has come to like solution mining. “ISL is easier. It is a lot cheaper: less expensive capital costs and less operating expenditures. It is less labor intensive.” Asked about the deadly radon emissions, often cited as a danger in underground mining, Drummond shot back, “This is a zero emission facility.” Analyzing the two methods, he said, “You can start producing faster with an ISL operation. You start your first header house, and you can start producing and make money.” He added, “So you get a return on your investment faster.” What’s the downside? “We also recover less uranium with ISL,” Drummond admitted. “Some of Cameco’s mines in Saskatchewan are running around 5, 10, 15, and 27 percent uranium. In this area, or in an ISL, it runs less than one or two percent. It’s very low.” Plus the uranium ore body must be found below the water table. He added, “You can only do ISL in rock that’s porous and has water in it in the first place.” To put it in the simplest terms, billions of years ago, the uranium found its way into the underground aquifers of Wyoming’s sandstones. “We add oxygen and get the uranium back into solution,” Drummond remarked. “We complex it with CO2 to keep it in solution, and then bring it to the surface. We extract it with an ion exchange base.” According to Drummond, extracting uranium works on the same principle as a water softener. “We add salts to the resin to get the uranium to back off from the resin. Then, we take that uranium and make it into a final product called yellow cake.” And why it is called yellowcake? “Some of it is yellow; some of it is green or dark green. Some of it is black,” Drummond patiently explained. “The color is a function of how we dry it, not how we process it. There is a very definite correlation between drying temperatures of yellow cake and color.” It all depends on what chemicals you use while processing uranium. At Smith Ranch, we make uranium peroxide. It is very clean and yellow. We complex uranium with hydrogen peroxide to make our product. You can make different types of yellowcake. You can make a uranium diuranate, a complex made with ammonia.” Yellowcake can be made with other chemicals. How is Wyoming’s ISL uranium dried? “We dry the uranium with vacuum dryers,” said Drummond. “The benefit of vacuum dryers is first of all, it’s a vacuum so everything is sucked inside the canister so nothing escapes into the environment. There are no gases that escape.” Investigating the Environmental Issues It was, at this point, we felt it appropriate to inquire about all the puzzling worries many of us might correlate when thinking about nuclear energy and uranium. How safe is all of this really? “When we first started uranium mining, we inherited people from the gold mines,” Drummond explained. “They were underground, and smoking, breathing in the dust. In the early days, we didn’t have good ventilation. In underground mining, you’ve got to keep the air moving.” Hard rock underground mining produces dust. “The shards of silicone you are breathing stick to the follicles on your lungs,” he noted. But that doesn’t happen during the ISL extraction process. No emissions, a farm of well fields with underground pipes and tubing, and very detailed safeguards explain they the lobby wall of Power Resources is lined with Safety Award certificates and plaques. “On a daily basis, when we leave the facility, we are scanned for alpha radiation,” continued Drummond. “Depending upon your position here, you get urinalysis once per week or once per month. We also check for radiation levels.” How did Drummond fare on his most recent radiation check? “I was way below,” he laughed. “There are guys on the beach in Malibu that have higher radiations than I have.” What precautions does Power Resources take to protect the environment during the ISL extraction process? “Since 1996, we have had zero excursions,” Drummond announced with steeliness in his voice. “We take very great pains to look at the topography, so if we do have an excursion, we make sure it does not enter what we call the ‘waters of the state.’ Any channel that could take that and move it into the ‘waters of the state,’ is something that we are very cognizant of.” After the holes are drilled into the well fields, a company does a ‘baseline sample.’ Drummond said, “That’s a sample of the constituents in the water. When we mobilize the uranium, we mobilize other items. It is our duty here, after we start the well field, to return the aquifer back to baseline when we are done.” He added, “If we know what’s in the water before we start, then we know how to restore it to background.” Restoration of the underground tampering with Mother Nature can take anywhere from 18 to 36 months. The company is meticulous in restoring the landscape as well. Any restoration work on the surface is called “reclamation.” That can involve farming. “When we start a well field, we have to, by license, remove the topsoil and store it somewhere,” Drummond explained. “When we go back to reclaim the property, we take all the pipes out, we take the houses down, and cut our wells off. It’s all identified. We put an ID marker on the well. In 50 years time, when Farmer Joe comes around and wonders what was there, the state can say, ‘That was a uranium well.’ From the time we’ve stopped mining, we put everything back to normal.” It takes from two to four months, or up to seven years, to exhaust a well field, depending upon the roll fronts. While it can take up to 24 months to put in a well field, reclamation and restoration take longer. “We put back the topsoil on, depending upon the weather, as soon as we can,” said Drummond. “We re-seed, during the spring or the fall, which is the best time for seeds. The seed we use is dictated by the regulators so we use a certain amount of native vegetation.” Because it’s very dry at the Smith Ranch, nearly bordering on desert, and because it is also very windy, slapping down the topsoil won’t last very long. “First, we plant some fast-growing oats to establish a root bed,” he explained. “If we just planted grasses, it would all blow away. Because we plant the oats, we have fat antelope and fat deer.” From our observations, the sheep were well-fed and frisky. How does Wyoming ISL mining compare to other places, such as in Texas or in Kazakhstan? “In Wyoming, the water is pristine, very clean, even compared to Texas, where they do ISL,” answered Drummond. “The water’s pretty clean down there also.” Is the uranium the same? “When we bring our uranium to the surface, it comes up as uranyl dicarbonate,” he responded. “In Texas, it comes up as uranyl tricarbonate.” What’s the difference? It’s in the processing of the uranium. “We get about 8.5 pounds of pounds of uranium per cubic foot of resin,” he explained. “In Texas, they get about 3 to 4 pounds of uranium per cubic foot of resin.” Drummond described the Smith Ranch ion exchange operation, “We have two columns in the ion exchange, each with about 500 cubic feet of resin.” The resin costs about $200/cubic foot and, barring mechanical damage, can last up to thirty years, according to Drummond. The polymer beads – they look like tiny plastic ball bearings – capture the uranium during the processing phase. “In Kazakhstan, you get about two to three pounds of uranium per cubic foot of resin,” he continued. “They use hydrochloric acid because of the water conditions. Of course, you’ve changed the chemistry of the water and have all the acid to clean up.” Drummond described the water in Kazakhstan as very brackish, and yellowish. “The TDS (total dissolved solids) is very high,” he added. “The water’s not fit for human consumption anyways.” He laughed, “Using acid over there cleans their water up.”

         
    An introduction to cfd trading part 1

     

    : Here's a really simple yet useful tutorial on CFD trading that will get you up and running very quickly if you're new to CFD trading. By the time you finish this article, you'll know how CFDs work, what makes them highly profitable, and understand the costs involved in CFD trading. CFD stands for Contracts For Difference, which is a derivative product, where you profit from changes in the prices of stocks and shares. For example, if you buy a CFD on a stock that's $5.00 and the price rises to $5.50, then you profit from that change in price. So if you bought 1000 CFDs, then your profit is $500. That is, the value of the CFDs mirror the underlying stock prices, and you can profit on this movement. The reasons why CFDs are a very popular trading product, and understandably so, are: 1. CFDs are traded on leverage, and this leverage is typically 10 to 1, with some CFD brokers providing 20 to 1 leverage. This means that a trader with a small float can make decent profits from trading the stock market by using CFDs. For example, you may have a stock trading system that makes a 30% return per annum. On a $5000 float, this is $1500 profit in one year. With CFDs, because of the leverage, the same system can now produce a 300% return, which is $15 000 profit in one year. 2. You can just as easily short sell CFDs as well, and therefore profit from falling markets. This greatly increases the profitability of a trading system because trading opportunities increase dramatically, and the fact that you can profit from both bull and bear markets. 3. The costs in CFD trading are relatively low when compared to stocks. This is especially so, since for a similar and often smaller cost per trade, you can gain 10 or greater times the results from a trade due to the leverage available. The 2 main costs in CFD trading are interest and leverage. We'll come to these in a moment. 4. You can set automatic stop losses. This means that it will take you less time to trade, remove the emotion from exiting a trade when you should, and allow you to exit as the stop is hit, not a day later. You therefore avoid the slippage due to getting out of a trade later than when you intended. 5. You can place all your orders in the evenings. With many CFD providers, you can place orders to enter a position the night before. For people who are working, this is a great advantage as they can do all their trading (place their orders to enter and their stop losses) in the evenings, and not need to be at the computer screen or call their broker during the day. Also, if they have any stop losses that need adjusting, they can do so in the evenings as well. Their trading routine with a mechanical system can be about 10-15 minutes per day. So these are the advantages of CFDs that have made trading accessible to so many people because they provide large returns for a modest float, and can also be traded once a day as well. Now, we mentioned that there are 2 main costs in CFD trading. Let's have a closer look now at each of them: 1mission. With some CFD providers, there is in fact no commission. This also greatly increases the profitability of your CFD trading systems, as well as the fact that you can benefit hugely from the leverage. With other CFD providers, there may be a commission of say 0.15% of the trade size or $15, whichever is greater, each way. These costs are similar or less than the commission associated with stock trading, especially when you consider that the multiplied profits that the leverage gives you. 2. With CFDs, there's interest charged for long positions that are held overnight. For short positions, the interest is paid to you. The amount of interest charged is usually a reference rate plus approximately 2%, and the interest paid is usually the same reference rate minus approximately 2%. And the reference rate is usually a major bank's overnight interest rate. For example, the interest rate charged for overnight held long positions may be 7.5% or 0.075 per annum. To calculate how much this is for a trade, we need to make it "pro rata". That is, we'd need to divide the 0.075 by 365, multiply it buy the number of days in trade, then multiply it by the trade size. For example, for a trade size of $10 000, held for 14 days, the interest cost is about $28. Not a huge cost. For a short trade, the interest is paid to you, so will offset the cost rather than contribute to it. So there you have it. You now understand the benefits of trading CFDs and why they're a trading instrument that allows people with a modest float to make very decent returns, as well as understand the costs involved with trading CFDs. To learn more about CFD trading, watch out for part 2 of this article. If you'd like to learn more now about CFD trading, go to this page with a comprehensive tutorial on CFD trading

         
    An overview of the stock market

     

    When you are interested in investing in the stock market one of the first things you will need is a reliable and affordable stockbroker. At one point in time, a stockbroker was seen as a very high priced person that was extremely hard to understand. In today’s world, stockbrokers have become much different, they have begun to make their services cheaper to obtain and in such a way that is easier to understand. This is an extremely wonderful change for the simple reason that you will not be able to trade in any way, shape, or form without a stockbroker. One of the major rules within the stock market is that no person is allowed to trade within the stock market unless they are a certified stockbroker. A stockbroker, within the United Kingdom twelve million investor’s trade in the stock market, performs every trade that occurs and each one has enlisted the services of a stockbroker. So you are probably now wondering, what exactly can a stockbroker do for me? There is a wide range of abilities and services that any stockbroker can offer you, at the same time there are also various ranges of fees that will be collected from them. Typically, a stockbroker will charge a commission, a set fee, or some combination of the two. In regards to the services a stockbroker can offer you, there are three basic levels that include only execution, portfolio management, and advice. When a stockbroker only deals with the selling and buying of particular shares, per the instructions you give them, this is generally called execution only or in softer terms dealing only. With this type of service, they do not offer you any type of advice on any action you want perform. Typically, investors that are experienced or novice in investing will use this type of service. Execution only is cheaper and extremely efficient the fees the stockbroker charges can range anywhere between Ј20 to hundreds of pounds, this will depend on the specific stockbroker you choose. Portfolio management is extremely detailed and the most expensive type of service performed and dealing with advice is typically a little more expensive than execution only, because the stockbroker will offer advice and views on what is happening within the stock market. The stockbroker at this level of service will also take the time to explain anything you may not understand very well. Within the portfolio management service, you can separate these into two other categories these are advisory and discretionary. When under the advisory category, the stockbroker will create a proposal of a portfolio for you; however, he or she will not take any action without express permission from you. Within the discretionary category, your stockbroker will completely run all aspects of your portfolio and will give you reports as needs on how the portfolio is working.

         
    Ancient meteor impact may hold key to uranium exploration success at cluff

     

    ESO Uranium to Angle Drill near a Promising 1970’s Hole “I look at about 100 different projects a year, most of which go into the round filing cabinet on my floor,” said Tony Harvey, the senior technical advisor to ESO Uranium (TSX: ESO), and formerly a senior manager of Wright Engineers-Fluor Daniels, which was involved with the design and construction of 14 mines worldwide. Harvey quickly ticked off what is necessary to attract his eye, “I need to see history. I need to see signposts before I give it any credence.” So why is he advising little-known ESO Uranium, after a long, prolific career? Harvey helped found Amex-listed Azco Mining, and more recently was a director of Mexican mining firm, Cobre del Mayo, which sold two of its last three mines, which he helped discover, to Phelps Dodge (NYSE: PD). “I believe this one has a huge amount of history,” Harvey argued. “Not only have you got the Cluff Lake mine, which already confirms the presence of uranium, but you have got the Shea Creek drilling intercepts which validate it. We have the conductors streaming onto our property. We have the boulders, which is also another sign post.” The boulders, of which Tony Harvey refers, are the six uranium-mineralized boulders near the ESO Uranium project on the company’s Cluff property. Near those boulders, a promising drill hole from the 1970s indicated 0.85% U3O8 over 2.3 meters. It was all but forgotten until the recent explosion of exploration activity in Saskatchewan’s Athabasca Basin, an area which has helped Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) grow into a company with a market capitalization of nearly $12 billion. What ESO Uranium’s geological team will be looking for at the company’s Cluff property are Cluff Lake style uranium deposits in basement rocks with the Carswell structure close to the unconformity with sandstones of the Athabasca group. Drilling in the Meteor’s Wake “The value of the ore extracted at the Cluff mine, in today’s terms, would be equivalent to $2.6 billion,” explained Harvey. “That’s how much was extracted at the Cluff mine.” The company’s vice president of exploration, Benjamin Ainsworth, who is both a senior geologist and a mining engineer, helped explain the Cluff structure. “A meteorite probably impacted at this location and with sufficient force to break right through the layers of Athabasca sandstone on the surface. On rebound, basement rocks got lifted back up. In bouncing back out, it also lifted up the surrounding Athabasca rocks and tipped them up, if you can imagine, like an opening flower.” As a result, the basement got lifted up to the surface and made it easier to find and mine the uranium at Cluff. Ainsworth added, “The significance of that for me and our group is that shows very high grade uranium deposits in the western side of Athabasca.” Drilling a property helps the geological team better understand the area. Since the Cluff property was mined out, two decades ago, additional scientific study has opened up new doors. At the 67th Annual Meteoritical Society Meeting, University of Quebec Earth Science professors presented a paper entitled, “A Re-Evaluation of the Size of the Carswell Astrobleme.” The Montreal scientists concluded in the 2004 annual conference held in Brazil, “The Carswell impact structure is therefore older and larger than previously estimated… the central uplift considered to be under the annular dolomitic unit would suggest a crater size in the basement of 118 to 125 kilometers wide.” While some believe the meteor hit about 478 million years ago, recent evidence suggests it may have been closer to 1.8 billion years ago. Angle Drilling This Time ESO Uranium plans a six-hole drill program to learn more about their Cluff property. The first hole hopes to confirm what was found earlier, “We’re going to drill right up against the CAR-425 hole drilled originally in the 1970s, which indicated uranium of about 0.85 percent U3O8 over 2.3 meters.” They will drill adjacent to the uranium-mineralized boulders. Ainsworth explained how the company’s strategy is different from previous drilling, “We’re drilling angle holes to give us a better opportunity to find more of the structures that can be carrying mineralization in that sort of system.” In the 1970s, holes were vertically drilled. Harvey added, “We’re going to be stepping out to the southeast, which bring us then closer to the original Cluff mine.” The company plans 150 to 200-meter holes. Ainsworth noted, “The CAR-425 drill hole, which we’re coming up close to, is 146.5 meters deep.” Robert Beckett, ESO Uranium’s exploration manager, agrees about the 55 degree angle holes the company will be drilling at the Cluff property, “They were drilling vertical holes, and we’d like to go back and check it with an angle hole on the theory, which we interpret as some kind of subvertical system.” Beckett talked about additional drilling to the south, after the property had been explored, revealed “the structure extends from the edge of the basin all the way through Shea Creek.” He added, “We believe it extends onto our property to the north at 11 o’clock, just to the north. We see the extension of those conductors coming up through Shea Creek – conductors and by extension, structures, extending up onto our property. And the structures are the key thing – the destruction of the upper fold and the unconformity in the bedrock, it gives you the right kind of conditions for the deposition of uranium.” Before Beckett joined ESO Uranium, he had been district geologist for Esso Minerals and for the Saskatchewan Mining Development Corporation, which later merged with El Dorado Nuclear to become Cameco Corp. He was the exploration manager at Midwest Lake and the project manager of the Port Radium mine. The Hook Property Another property in the ESO Uranium portfolio, which requires additional preparatory geological work and exploratory drilling, is called the Hook property. It’s about ten miles south of the Shea Creek deposit and covers approximately 130,000 acres. The western one-third of the property has been minimally explored. ESO Uranium CEO Jonathan George said about it, “The Hook is one of the areas I’m particularly excited about, now that we’ve received the airborne geophysical survey, is because the conductors have shown up very strongly, coupled with dravite, which is an alteration clay, a key indicator to uranium deposits.” Mr. George believes his company may have a new targeted area. “Cameco is drilling right on the doorstep on another project they have,” he added. Cameco, he pointed out, is drilling just to the south and east of ESO’s southern rim, below the company’s border. Ainsworth was also optimistic, saying, “That’s part of the reason why that ground was selected earlier – Cameco had that position, and I could see, in the available information that there were structures and good probabilities of other types of systems being available.” George said, “We’re going to be drilling because we see an intense alteration on surface, of which that source has never been found. The alteration coupled with the structure leads us to believe we’ve got a great shot down there.” “I think we’re much closer to having a hit at Cluff immediately,” Ainsworth insisted. “It is probably a good thing to get some news on the table very early on.” He did warn that there is a lot of risk in drilling for uranium deposits. “The geometry of these things is damn small.” George pointed out that the world’s richest uranium deposit, McArthur River, hosting about 400 million pounds of uranium, had half of its deposit in an area about half the size of a football field. “I think that’s mind boggling,” he said, “that a $7 billion project would be on an area that small.” Conclusion Drilling is imminent on the Cluff property, depending upon ice thickness in Saskatchewan. News should be available fairly quickly. Ainsworth warns, “The individual deposits at Cluff are actually quite small.” While quite a bit of work has been done in the Cluff area, many have recognized it’s very easy to miss. But Ainsworth cheerfully exudes, “The key thing here is that the grade is so high that pursuing it further makes it worthwhile.” Another key to ESO Uranium is the strength of their exploration team. Technical adviser Tony Harvey has numerous credits to his long career. Robert Beckett has spent decades exploring in Saskatchewan and for the precursor company to Cameco, he was the in charge of the northern half of the Athabasca Basin. Benjamin Ainsworth held numerous senior positions with Placer since 1965, having once served as president of Placer Chile. According to ESO’s Corporate Communications Manager, Tom Corcoran, “We currently raised about C$4.7 million, which has been earmarked for exploration on and in the ground. If we don’t spend it on drilling or exploration work, we have to give the money back.” ESO Uranium planned to start drilling in early February, having had to slightly delay the start of drilling, according to Robert Beckett, until the weather got colder. Drilling is imminent, and results should appear fairly quickly. Ainsworth offered an insight about how soon we will know about drilling results, “One thing about uranium, unlike drilling for gold and other metals, you get a radioactive signal on a drill core as you’re logging it. So you get a pretty good idea if you’ve got something there or not. You’re not going to get a very precise assay at that point, but at least you can focus very quickly. You can see these uranium minerals with a naked eye.” We’ll be looking forward to seeing those drill results shortly.

         
     
         
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