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    Free Essay
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    Lack of a trading strategy

     

    If you know the pitfalls of trad¬ing, you can easily avoid them. Small mistakes are inevitable, such as entering the wrong stock symbol or incorrectly setting a buy level. But these are forgivable, and, with luck, even profitable. What you have to avoid, however, are the mistakes due to bad judgment rather than simple errors. These are the “deadly” mistakes which ruin entire trading careers instead of just one or two trades. To avoid these pitfalls, you have to watch yourself closely and stay diligent. Think of trading mistakes like driving a car on icy roads: if you know that driving on ice is dangerous, you can avoid traveling in a sleet storm. But if you don’t know about the dangers of ice, you might drive as if there were no threat, only realizing your mistake once you’re already off the road. Although trading involves risk, never treat it like gambling. You must have a solid trading strategy, one which you plan, test, and revise repeatedly. You need to stick to this strategy, and never act on spur-of-the-moment decisions. All you do when you act on a gut feeling is jeopardize any and all of the thoughtful planning you’ve done by giving yourself completely over to chance. Remember that you can never control where a single trade will end up, but you do have control over a long-term plan. And don’t evaluate your performance on the basis of individual trades. A gambler might think that a small loss is a failure while one huge risky gain means success. Traders should never think this way. Instead, judge yourself by the consistency and profitability of your overall strategy. This is the only way to stay in control of your trading success. To do this, of course, you have to build a solid strategy. This means developing a set of pre-defined rules that you follow consistently. You should set goals for each week, or possibly each month (but never for a single day, as there are too many things you won’t be able to control over such a short period of time). Next, decide on realistic profits and losses for each trade. Then, according to these markers you’ve set for yourself, carry out your plan without exceptions. If your set profit for a trade is, say, $300, sell when you reach that milestone, even if you have a feeling the stock will rise. Otherwise, you corrupt your plan with too much risk, and you’ll never know if your overall strategy was successful or not. You may have gotten lucky with one trade, but you haven’t determined any kind of consistency. Keeping to a strategy will allow you to revise what you’re doing, learning which goals and limits will work and which won’t. Straying from your strategy teaches you nothing useful that you can apply over the course of your trading career. So, while you may gain a few hundred, or even thousands, of dollars on a single trade, who knows how much knowledge you sacrificed, knowledge could have gained you tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars in the years to come.

         
    Learn stock trading from playing poker

     

    Picking good stocks is only the first step to become a consistently profitable trader. Those of you that track the performances of stock picks I post on cisiova/analysis. asp know that it is impossible to determine if a stock is good without a good exiting strategy. And for most traders, exit strategy is the hardest part. Many people say that to trade profitably you need to develop the right mentality. Unfortunately, such winning mentality can only be developed through experience. However, there is a short cut to get through the learning curve without throwing thousands of dollars in the process. This short cut is playing POKER. Yes you heard me right. Apparently, playing poker has a lot of similarities with investing in stocks. First of all, they both deal with money, uncertainties, and a keen judgment of potential risk and reward. In this article I will explain the similarities and differences between stock trading and poker. But before proceeding, make sure you know the rules of Texas Holdem and fluent with the terminologies. Think of stock picking as looking for good hands to play. In Texas Holdem, you can look at the two hole cards and decide whether you can play the hand or not. Similarly, you can analyze the stock before entering a position. Fortunately for you traders, no one will raise pre-flop, so you just pay the commission. Remember to exit the position you also need to pay the commission, which implies that the cost of entering a position is two times the commission. Good poker players only play good hands, so you should do thorough researches before entering a position. One good thing about trading is that you do not have to wait for good stocks like poker players wait for good hands, you can find good stocks on stock picking websites or using screeners to find them yourself. Once you call the blinds in poker, you get to see the flops and two more cards. Think of these cards as the performance of your stock after you enter the position. In poker, the flop can make a good hand, a medium hand, or a bad hand (by helping your opponents). In trading, you can observe the potential of the stock as well, and you should objectively judge the downside and upside potential of the stock. In poker, there are times that you have a good hand, and your opponent have a better hand, and you know you are beat. These are the times where your mentality matters the most. An experienced poker player will fold his hand regardless of the amount of money he has put into the pot. As a trader, at times that you think the upside potential fails to actualize, you should sell the stock regardless of how much you have lost. On the other hand, when a good poker player knows he has the winning hand, despite the possibility of losing at the river, he would bet aggressively, without fearing the small losing possibility. In trading, this translates to if the stock goes up and manifests higher upside potential, you should not fear that you will lose your recent winnings. Therefore the winning mentality is to ride when the stock is going up, and sell when the stock is losing its heat. This discipline is easily said than done. So many times I have heard people lost all their money because they hold on to losing positions (due to hope) and sell winning positions too early (due to fear). By playing poker, you would get the chance to master your emotions, learning not to hope when you are beat, and not to fear when you are favorable to win. You want to lose small and win big, not the opposite. Now go practice. This mentality only develops with experience.

         
    Lexar bid is inadequate

     

    On Friday, flash media maker Lexar Media (LEXR) received a higher revised takeover bid from Micron Technology (MU). The revised bid places the all-stock exchange offer at around $10 a share, up marginally from the initial bid. But major shareholders including billionaire investor Carl Icahn along with hedge funds and portfolio managers have deemed the initial bid to be inappropriate. Elliott Associates believes the initial bid "significantly undervalues Lexar," and feels Lexar is worth between $1.5 billion and $2.4 billion. The estimate is well above the revised takeover bid of about $827 million. I must concur and say the revised takeover bid is way too low and needs to be rejected by shareholders. Micron wants to pay around 1.10x sales for Lexar while the market leader SanDisk (SNDK) is trading at 4.35x sales. Lexar also has a $400 million patent infringement lawsuit against Toshiba that it had previously won but is now subject to an appeal by Toshiba. Think about it this way, a successful $400 million settlement in favor of Lexar would equate to around $4.83 per share in additional cash to add to the current $0.54 in free cash after debt that Lexar has. This means Micron would pay less than $5 a share for Lexar’s assets, which is low. There is also speculation that SanDisk is seriously thinking about taking a run at acquiring Lexar. This would make sense since SanDisk would solidify its leadership position. Moreover, SanDisk has a close working relationship with Toshiba, which could see SanDisk drop or reduce the settlement if it managed to acquire Lexar. Stay tune. A special shareholder meeting to review the takeover bid has been moved to June 16. In my view, the $10 bid undervalues Lexar. Question is will a white knight surface?

         
    Looking to get started with penny stocks

     

    If you are looking are thinking that Penny Stocks are a “Get Rich Quick Scheme”, I’m sorry to disappoint you. Although great fortunes can be made from penny stocks, people can also lose everything they invest in Penny Stocks. The most important investment you can make at the start of your investment career is to invest in education. Why Education and not stock? Diving head first into the stock market is a great way of losing your money which is why we don’t recommend it. The best thing to do is to read, read and read some more before investing. One of the best places to get free information on penny stocks and trading methods is from the internet. Forums, websites, news sites and eBooks are a great way to improve your penny stock investment education. There are some great books that you can borrow from libraries or purchase cheaply from shops. When reading on the internet, please be cautious of stock recommendations and strategies and methods. Stock recommendations and opinions from internet forums can be biased and cannot be fully trusted without doing your own research. Similarly, eBooks with strategies which promise great returns usually do not work as suggested. The reason for this is, even if the strategy worked well for the author, there is no guarantee that it will work for everyone else because everyone is different although you may learn something that you did not already know. Google News has a business section which is group for free up-to-date information on stocks. Yahoo Finance also has good news section and also provides free charts and company information. No matter who you get advice from, whether it’s from a financial consultant or friend, you should always carry out your own additional research. You should make decisions based on facts rather than opinions. When you feel confident enough you can try some “test trades”. You can either keep a record of your trades on paper or you can use a stocks simulator website where you invest with “fake” money. There is a website called Champion Investor (ChampInvest) which is great for this purpose as it also calculates profits and losses automatically. Also, if you the top performer of the month, you will be rewarded with Ј1000. Using a stock simulator means that you will not lose your hard-earned cash if you make a bad investment. Instead, you will learn not to do it again without losing your money. If you are consistently able to make a profit with your “test trades” then you can move onto the real thing. Keep your investment strategy exactly as it was when you were making profitable test trades, but instead of using “fake” money, you will be using your own money through a stock broker. So, to summarise - if you are looking to get started in penny stocks, please do not dive in head first without investing your education first.

         
    Lows and highs in stocks

     

    In stocks, traders and investors base their bids/asks, or buy and sell on lows and highs. The high and low in some instances have pips, currencies, spreads, or shares involved. Most people in the trading industry will use charts to keep updated on pips. Pips are what traders call percentages factored into points. The percentages are quotes that determine the price set on currencies. The charts help these traders to keep track so they know when to buy and sell. In the business, small and large banking institutions, as well as large and small companies invest in stocks, or Forex exchange. Using charts, the traders are provided quotes on both sides, which make up ask and bid phrase, depending on the stock market. The bids make up pricing, which is prompted once indicators within programs alert traders on Base Exchange that occurs between buying currencies on opposing sides. Once the alerts come in, the trader may select "ask" has the pricing occurs. The trader bases exchange on his, ‘ask' which could flip at the drop of a dime. Quotes enable traders to set their marks on pips, which can decide decimals that rise over the averages. In stocks, decimals convert in some instances to match exchange within the currencies of a sole country. Decimals base values, which are constant at all times. One of the largest industries and growing is Forex. The foreign market exchanges currencies in stocks that have reached in the trillions of dollar brackets. That is trillions in a sole industry. This fiscal market has made the highest mark in the stock market industry. The market has overridden the largest United States equity branches. Charts are employed in Forex. The guides, aid traders by allowing them to read, interpret through indicators, which send signals. Within the charts are treks, basic strategies, powers, and so on. Anyone intending to get in on stocks or in the stock market, should take time to learn about highs/lows, bid/asks, charts, pips, spreads and so on to avoid increasing the high risks. Staying informed is the key to successfully gaining in any stock exchange. Still, you want to choose charts and information that offers you precision in the stock market, Forex exchange markets and other stock industries. Your best solution for just starting out is to download free charts that allow you to monitor and analyze, while exploring pips, spreads, highs, lows, currencies and so on in stocks.

         
    Lucent needs some loving

     

    Lucent Technologies Inc. (NYSE/LU) is a stock that needs some major loving. This former Wall Street darling has been discarded by the herd and is now looking for some love on the Street. Trading at nearly $80 in late 1999, the stock like many others in the communications sector has been under severe pressure in recent years, facing lackluster revenue growth and anemic profits. Lucent has also gone through its share of lawsuits. Despite some recovery in the communications sector, the area remains a difficult place to operate. The competition is fierce, pricing pressures are growing, and margins are low. That is the reality for the communications sector, an area that remains in limbo given the current climate. So what is Lucent suppose to do? Shareholders have lost patience in the ability of chairman and CEO Patricia F. Russo in turning around the company and making it a star again. Down 96% from its late 1999 high, the reality is investors who bought at that level or even lower will probably never recover their losses. Lucent will never be more than a capital loss for those that purchased at the higher and inflated prices. The company is making money and its forward price-earnings multiple is reasonable, but given the slow expected growth the stock’s upside may be limited. Given the mixed outlook for the communications sector, Lucent is trying to get a major hug from rival and also troubled France-based Alcatel SA (NYSE/ALA). Lucent after being rejected already by Alcatel in 2001 is hoping this second attempt is met with hugs and kisses, something they love to do in France. Alcatel is reviewing the potential merger with Lucent, but it is in the driver’s seat as its position is much better than that of Lucent. In other words, Lucent needs Alcatel more. But for Alcatel, a merger with Lucent could give the company more exposure and an established network in the United States. The deal if consummated could be the first of many more to come as struggling telecom companies look for ways to cut cost and compete more effectively. Note: you are welcome to post this article on your site if it is financial related. You must cut and paste the bio and make sure the web site link is live. Also please e-mail me to let me know.

         
    Make more money trading the stock market

     

    If you are a stock trader, how often do you base your buy and sell decision on technical analysis? If you use technical indicators in your trades, Ashkon Stock Predictor can help you make closer predictions of the stock market. Thanks to the dozens of simple pre-defined trading strategies and literally hundreds of combined ones, there will be no lack of strategy for any stock and any market situation. Choose the right trading strategy and increase your trading profits with Stock Predictor! Download Free Trial (16 MB) Traditionally, analytical packages for the stock market cost thousands of dollars, and require their operators a high degree of competency in mathematical statistics. Ashkon Software innovative product provided, for the first time, an intuitive and simple to use graphical user interface to the complex process of trading, analyzing data and making predictions. Stock Predictor allows you to make weighted decisions on whether to buy, sell, hold, or avoid a particular stock or stock index by plotting stock charts and technical indicators. You can glance at the charts and make a quick trade decision, or scrutinize them with any of the built-in trading strategies. Are you sure you are selling your stocks at the right time? Limiting your losses and protecting your gains is a rule of thumb for every investor. Making a trade decision is risky and time-consuming. You can reduce your risks and save time by using proper analytical tools. Stock Predictor saves your time by providing comprehensive analysis of technical indicators for all of your stocks. Do you have a trading strategy? If you do, how do you know that the strategy of your choice is the most effective one for a given stock and under the circumstances? Stock Predictor helps you choose the right trading strategy for a given stock or group of stocks, supporting multiple pre-defined trading strategies. Running the strategies against a single stock, stock index or a group of stocks makes it easy to calculate and compare cumulative and summarized returns on investment. Choosing the best trading strategy for a particular stock or group of stocks can increase your bottom line dramatically. Having access to prior performance of a given stock certainly helps developing the right trading strategy. Stock Predictor provides access to historical data at no extra fee with built-in downloader. You can import data into Stock Predictor from a different source, or export data to process it in an analytical application of your choice. Despite having all the features of advanced analytical packages, Stock Predictor does not cost an arm and a leg. At only $295, Stock Predictor is extremely affordable for any stock trader. Stock Predictor is available for immediate download. Get your free evaluation copy at ashkon/sp. html and bring your trades to the new level of competency!

         
    Making 200 in the stock market can be easy

     

    There is an unfortunate belief among many people that doing well in the stock market (and other markets, for that matter) requires a great deal of work and loads of time. This is partly a function of those in the markets wanting to make what they do seem complicated, and therefore exclusive. The reality of the situation is that you do not need to dedicate your life to the markets to produce good results. I will use myself as an example. In most years there are significant time periods during which my schedule of travel and other commitments prevents me being overly active in the markets. One particular year I added a six week trip between the end of May and the early part of July in to the mix as well. During the course of that year I did a total of about a dozen trades in the stock market. Want to know my return for that year? It was more than 200%. Now you might be thinking that this is an anomaly. It’s not. Over about an 18 month period between 2002 and 2003 I was able to double the value of my retirement account trading stocks (I had to double it to make up for the beating the mutual funds I had been in prior to that had taken) necessarily using a much more conservative approach than in the example above. Again, that was done on a relatively small number of trades. v Actually, I don’t normally make that many trades in any given year. If I get very far above twenty it’s rather unusual. Clearly, I’m not a day trader. I do not get in and out of positions rapidly. My strategy is one I have formed over the years which allows me to find stocks with good upside potential that I don’t have to constantly watch. The positions I put on are intended to be held for weeks, if not months. That’s the timeframe when the largest moves happen, so that’s the timeframe I want to trade. The strategy I use incorporates all three primary forms of market analysis – fundamental, technical, and quantitative. That said, however, I can go through the stock selection process in a couple of hours, at most. If there isn’t anything worth really looking at, the whole thing can be done very quickly. What’s more, if I have active positions on I will generally not be looking to enter any new ones. In that case, aside from a little bit of checking up to see how the stocks are trading and if there’s any important news, there’s very little to be done. I can literally trade my system in only a couple hours a month. Now you might be saying that I’ve got a great system. Maybe I do. It certainly works for me given the constraints I operate under with my schedule. I don’t consider it any major secret, though. In fact, I outlined it in detail in my book, The Essentials of Trading, so you are free to take a look at it for yourself. The important point here is that I was able to develop a trading style and methodology that works for me. Anyone can do that. It is a question of making an honest self – assessment and defining an approach that fits within the parameters you have for trading or investing in the markets. Maybe you can day trade, or maybe you’re like me with limited time to dedicate to finding good stocks to buy. Whatever the case, you have to do what works for you and realize that you can trade effectively regardless of how much time you have to put in to it.

         
    My simple penny stock picking system

     

    Before investing your hard-earned cash into penny stocks, it is important to research the penny stocks you want to invest in before committing any cash.. You want to find profitable penny stocks. To do this, you’ll need penny stock leads. Leads are just names of penny stocks that you are thinking of investing in. There are many ways to get penny stock leads. For example, searching the internet (blogs and forums), joining a penny stock mailing list or keeping an eye out on the news. The main idea is to build a list of around 5 to 10 quality leads that are worthy of your money. After you have a list of leads, you’ll want to choose one or two of them. You’ll need to go through your list and discard stocks which do not meet your criteria. This process can be tedious but it will be well worth it in the end. The criteria that I look for include - company history, business plan, opinions of individuals and experts, financial information, competition, track record of the board of directors, company reports and broker recommendations. Using the variables, I can quickly establish whether a particular stock is worth investing in. Once my list has been cut down to 1 or 2 stocks, I’ll ask for opinions from other people to confirm my selections. It is very important to listen to the views of other investors because, in most cases, they’ll have something valuable to contribute to your research. Perhaps, you missed out a vital piece of information which other investors could highlight for you. Now that I have 1 or 2 stocks out of my original list of 10, I feel confident that I have done my due diligence and I am ready to invest. I use this process every time I’m investing in penny stocks and , so far, it has been simple but profitable.

         
    New mexico joins the nuclear renaissance

     

    New Mexico hasn’t had a uranium boom since 1950. After Navajo shepherd Paddy Martinez woke up from his nap, beneath a limestone ledge with a handful of funny looking yellow rocks, only to be later told he had discovered New Mexico’s first uranium, the state was swarmed with thousands of prospectors hoping to cash in on the nuclear metal. Another uranium boom may now be in progress. This time, the charge is led by the European consortium Urenco Ltd, general partner of Louisiana Energy Services (LES), which was issued a draft license, this past Friday, by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to build and operate a $1.5 billion uranium enrichment plant in Lea County, New Mexico. Louisiana Energy Services is a Urenco-managed partnership, whose members include Exelon Corp, Entergy Corp and Duke Energy Corp. This is the first permit issued for a uranium enrichment facility in thirty years; the first ever to a private company. Announcement of the uranium enrichment facility came nine days after International Uranium Corporation (IUC) announced it was reopening its uranium mines in the Four Corners region of the western United States. In a company news release, Ron Hochstein, president of IUC, announced, “We intend on utilizing our large capacity mill to its full advantage through toll milling contracts with other future miners in the area…” The company’s White Mesa Mill, only one of two operational uranium mills in the United States, is across from the New Mexico border. Uranium development companies have acquired uranium properties, abandoned by major oil companies during the uranium drought of the 1980s and 1990s, and could be well positioned to advance those properties through the permitting process. Over the past year, newer uranium companies have entered the state, optimistic the record-high spot uranium price may help finance their exploration and development costs in New Mexico. With a uranium mill, just past the western border of New Mexico in neighboring Utah, and the soon-to-be-built uranium enrichment facility in southeastern New Mexico, when might the state again become a world-class production center? Only over the past few years has Canada’s Athabasca Basin, with its ultra-high grades of uranium ore, surpassed the cumulative production of New Mexico. The Grants Mineral Belt in northern New Mexico produced more than 340 million pounds of uranium oxide (U3O8, yellowcake) before the uranium depression of the 1980s and 1990s brought New Mexico mining to a standstill. The Grants Mineral Belt produced about 40 percent of all the mined uranium in the United States. Who is Urenco? Urenco is short for Uranium Enrichment Company. Three countries – Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom – signed the Treaty of Alemlo (Netherlands) on March 4, 1970 as a way to collaborate in developing centrifuge technology for uranium enrichment. In 1971, three industrial partners – British Nuclear Fuels plc (BNFL), Ultra-Centrifuge Nederland N. V. (UCN) and Uranit GmbH – founded Urenco Ltd. The company has since spun off its Enrichment Technology Company. There are now three wholly owned subsidiaries, based in each of the respective countries. The Louisiana Energy Services partnership plans on building the National Enrichment Facility (NEF) about five miles east of Eunice, New Mexico. The NEF plans on providing a sustainable domestic supply of slightly enriched uranium, also called ‘low enriched uranium’ or LEU, using Urenco’s gas centrifuge technology. Currently, USEC is the other uranium enrichment facility, using the more expensive gaseous diffusion technology. USEC is a publicly traded company, created under the Clinton-Gore Administration for the purposes of the Russia-US ‘swords for plowshares’ HEU deal. Under the HEU agreement, Russia’s counterpart supplied USEC with uranium from decommissioned Russian nuclear weapons. This uranium now supplies U. S. utilities with about 50 percent of the uranium used to power domestic nuclear power plants. In 2001, the domestic uranium industry only produced 12 percent of its required supply of enriched uranium, while Russia exported 55 percent to the United States. Urenco supplied 16 percent of the U. S. demand. Urenco plans to increase its percentage of enriched uranium to about one-quarter of U. S. enrichment demand, once the plant is running at full capacity. This amounts to annual production of 3 million Separative Work Units (SWUs). A Separative Work Unit is the unit used to express the effort necessary to separate U-235 and U-238. The capacity of enrichment plants is measured in tons SW per year. For example, a large nuclear power station with a net electrical capacity of 1300 MW requires an annual amount of 25 tons SW (enriched uranium) to operate (with a concentration of 3.5 percent U-235). The National Enrichment Facility will become Urenco’s North American debut of the company’s gas centrifuge technology, which the company boasts is the ‘world’s most advanced, energy-efficient and cost-effective uranium enrichment technology.’ It has reportedly been used for more than thirty years. What is Gas Centrifuge Technology? Only 0.7 percent of the weight of natural uranium, the U-235 isotope found in nature’s uranium, is the isotope needed to power a nuclear reactor. The U-235 isotope is the one that splits inside the core. It is this isotope which releases energy in the fission process. Because natural uranium can not power a nuclear reactor, the concentration of U-235 must be slightly increased, also known as ‘low enrichment,’ from 0.7 percent to between 3 and 5 percent. The enrichment occurs during the centrifuge process. It is called the ‘gas centrifuge process” because gaseous uranium hexafluoride (UF6) is fed into a cylindrical, high-speed rotor. The gas is whirled around inside thousands of centrifuges in a nearly friction-free environment, separating the fissionable U-235 isotope from the heavier U-238 isotope. The centrifugal motion pushes the heavier U-238 gas away from the useful U-235 gas, which remains closer to the rotor axis. The process is repeated until the desired enrichment percentage is achieved. Let’s back up the process a few steps. First, the uranium is mined and milled. The finished product, which is shipped off to the conversion facility, is called yellowcake. The next step in creating nuclear fuel for a reactor is the conversion process. The yellowcake, or U3O8, is converted into uranium hexafluoride, or UF6. Yellowcake is dissolved in nitric acid to create a new solution, uranyl nitrate. Hydrogen is then used to reduce this to UO2. This is then converted to UF4 with hydrofluoric acid. The UF6 is obtained with the uranium is oxidized with fluorine. At ambient temperatures, UF6 forms solid grey crystals. Depending upon its temperature, uranium hexafluoride can be a solid, liquid or gas. After the U3O8 has been converted to UF6, it is transported to the enrichment site in an internationally standard transport container. The solid UF6 is heated up in an air-tight pressure vessel until it returns to its gaseous state. It is then fed into the centrifuge. The Urenco ‘gas centrifuge’ has two pipes, one which removes the enriched uranium and another which removes the heavier uranium, depleted of U-235. Because a single centrifuge won’t enrich the uranium to the desired level, a number of centrifuges are connected together. The connected, parallel centrifuges are called a cascade. By passing through each of the centrifuges in the cascade, the U-235 is gradually enriched to the level required by the customer, a nuclear power plant. After the desired enrichment level is achieved, the enriched UF6 gas is passed through a series of compressors and packaged into product containers. The UF6 gas is cooled until the vapors solidify onto the walls of the container. The finished product is shipped to the fuel fabrication plant where the solid, enriched uranium is manufactured into fuel pellets. Uranium Enrichment Means Big Money The key to expansion, after sufficient U3O8 has been mined, is ensuring the uranium is converted and enriched so that it can fuel nuclear power plants. Until now, U. S. utilities have relied upon Russian HEU to LEU supplies to fuel their nuclear reactors. Urenco’s NEF in New Mexico gives a boost to the nuclear energy sector, and provides U. S. utilities with an alternative to having uranium enriched at USEC’s Kentucky plant, or worse yet, shipping domestically produced uranium overseas for enrichment. For instance, Brazil was forced to have its uranium enriched in Europe, until recently. Value-adding to the fuel supplying reactors can mean big money for LES, and especially for Urenco Ltd. But, the investment of $1.5 billion will also produce hundreds of new jobs for the border towns of both New Mexico and Texas. Estimates show about 800 construction jobs will be created as the facility is being built, and as many as 1200 during the peak of the construction. About 300 employees will be required to operate the facility. Nearby Andrews, Texas has been celebrating the National Enrichment Facility. The city manager expects the number of new homes under construction to jump by 10-fold this year. School enrollment has grown over the past year while newcomers have moved into the area, hoping for construction jobs. Urenco’s National Enrichment Facility should begin construction later this summer, probably in August. Louisiana Energy Services (LES) hopes to start selling enriched uranium in 2009, probably to its U. S. utility partners, who hope to build new reactors. A statement issued by the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) on Friday, congratulating LES for the approval of its NRC license pointed ahead to the U. S. expansion of the nuclear energy sector. The NEI’s chief nuclear officer, Marvin Fertel, said, “This experience bodes well for the construction and operating license applications for new nuclear power plants that are expected to be submitted to the agency beginning in 2007.”

         
    Not limiting your losses

     

    If you know the pitfalls of trad¬ing, you can easily avoid them. Small mistakes are inevitable, such as entering the wrong stock symbol or incorrectly setting a buy level. But these are forgivable, and, with luck, even profitable. What you have to avoid, however, are the mistakes due to bad judgment rather than simple errors. These are the “deadly” mistakes which ruin entire trading careers instead of just one or two trades. To avoid these pitfalls, you have to watch yourself closely and stay diligent. Think of trading mistakes like driving a car on icy roads: if you know that driving on ice is dangerous, you can avoid traveling in a sleet storm. But if you don’t know about the dangers of ice, you might drive as if there were no threat, only realizing your mistake once you’re already off the road. Traders often fail to limit their losses in search of a big win. Of course, the only way you can make a fortune with trading is to actually stay in the game, and it’s hard to stay in the game when you’ve already lost all of your money. The problem is that people often feel like any loss is a failure, and so they don’t incorporate a strategy for “safe” losses. They may feel like “planning” for a loss is planning to fail when, in fact, it’s planning to keep themselves in the game. Losses are a part of our business. The key to trading success is to limit your losses. Too many traders give a trade way too much “room,” and they take big hits, which can shrink an account down by 20%, 30%, and sometimes even 40%. You have to put a system into place which will ensure that you set small losses to avoid emptying your account. There’s a huge difference between losing big on a regular basis and losing small in a controlled trading plan. You already know that you should keep your losses small; the key is to keep them smaller that your average wins. Even if your winning percentage is only 50%, you’ll still be profiting if you set yourself up correctly. For example, if you have a weekly strategy that gets you $300 for every win but only takes $200 for every loss, a tie of a win and a loss will still get you a $100 profit for that week. The real key is to set a weekly goal and to be sure that you set a loss limit for each trade. So let’s say your goal is $300 each week, and you want to be sure that you lose no more than $200 per trade. If your first two trades of the week were losses, then you’re down $400. But all you need is three more wins through the rest of the week to make your profit. Once you meet your goal, stop trading, otherwise, you may end up with further losses, putting you behind schedule and gouging into your account funds, which will simply set you back further. The basic rule: always know when to exit a trade. Set a loss limit and stick to it. But also set short-term goals, and stop when you’ve reached those goals. Don’t ever gamble. Remember that looking for small gains over the long term is a much more reliable and consistent strategy which will help you avoid losing too much too quickly.

         
    Not taking profits

     

    If you know the pitfalls of trad¬ing, you can easily avoid them. Small mistakes are inevitable, such as entering the wrong stock symbol or incorrectly setting a buy level. But these are forgivable, and, with luck, even profitable. What you have to avoid, however, are the mistakes due to bad judgment rather than simple errors. These are the “deadly” mistakes which ruin entire trading careers instead of just one or two trades. To avoid these pitfalls, you have to watch yourself closely and stay diligent. Think of trading mistakes like driving a car on icy roads: if you know that driving on ice is dangerous, you can avoid traveling in a sleet storm. But if you don’t know about the dangers of ice, you might drive as if there were no threat, only realizing your mistake once you’re already off the road. Greed is an obvious but dangerous mistake. By their very nature, of course, traders are greedy, since they start trading in order to make more money. Wanting more money isn’t dangerous; wanting it too quickly is. Every trader wants to get rich, and they want to do it in one trade. And that’s when they lose. Trading success comes from consistency, not from a trading “grand slam.” There are a lot of newbie traders out there who believe that their fortune will be made in just one amazing trade, and then they’ll never have to work again for their entire life. This is a dream, a dangerous one. Successful traders will realize that right away. The best, and usually only, way to make a fortune in trading is consis¬tency. And this fortune will probably be made in small amounts. Unfor¬tunately, most traders go for the big wins, which result in big losses. It makes sense that traders are more interested in larger profits per trade. What would you rather have – a fifty dollar bill or a five dollar bill? The answer is obvious. But when it comes to trading, it’s not that simple. If you don’t take the five dollar bill, you may lose fifty dollars of your own money, or more. The main thing to keep in mind is this: even though you can’t take the fifty dollar bill right away, you can take ten five dollar bills over a longer period of time. And the end result is the same – fifty dollars. And that’s the main point here: small, steady profits add up. This is not to say you’ll never have a big winner. In options trading for example, it’s pretty common to have profits of 100%, 200%, or even 1,000% in just one trade. So, it’s not impossible to snag the big profits – it’s just not something you should count on. If you expect numbers like this all the time and accept nothing less, you’re setting yourself up for guaranteed disappointment. The key to trading success: small but consistent profits. Consistency is the key, because if your profits are consistent and predictable, then you can simply use leverage to trade size. Therefore, you must know when to exit with a profit. Resist the temp¬tation to stay in “just a little longer, for just a little more.”

         
    Of stocks stockholders and stock market

     

    A copper mining enterprise Stora Kopparberg first introduced the system of stock in the 13th century. The financial backers and owners felt the need to raise money for investment in the new projects of the same company so they started the method of stock and shares. It was also required in order to ward off the threat to the ownership rights if the company was sold, which would mean complete loss of control. The investors got the monetary support they were looking for and at the same time solved ownership issues in case the company was sold by granting stocks to the people. Plus, they sold a part to people and still retained control over the company. Thus, the owner had some portion of the assets, some power to make decision conditionally. In return, they shared a part of the profit with the stockowner as dividend. Financially, stock implies the ownership or share in a corporation. It gives the stockowner the right to claim a share in the assets and income of the corporation. The two types of stocks, preferred and common differ in many respects. The common stock owners can vote at the shareholders' meetings whereas the preferred stockowners cannot votemon stockowners get dividends declared by the company, whereas preferred stock owners have higher claim in assets and income of the company. Preferred stock entitles the owner to have his dividends earlier than the common stock owner. Preferred stock owner gets the priority when the company goes bankrupt. Besides these two, the other types of stock are dual class shares and treasury stock. A stockowner is not liable to losses in case the company closes and has loans to pay back. The loss of the stockholders is limited to the money that would have been made by converting the assets into cash since all the money would be used to repay the loans to the creditors. A stock exchange is the place where trading of shares is carried out. Individuals and companies sell and purchase shares on a large scale. Generally, a particular company trades only in one specific market and is said to be on the list of that particular stock exchange. However, big multinational companies can be listed on many stock exchanges. This is called inter-listed shares. There are various methods to buy or sell finance stocks, but the commonest among them is through the mediator called stockbroker, who actually transfers the shares from one owner to another. Stocks can be bought directly from the company also. The stock market of a country is an indicator of its economy, which just goes to show the growth and power of the stock market.

         
    On volatility and risk

     

    Volatility is considered the most accurate measure of risk and, by extension, of return, its flip side. The higher the volatility, the higher the risk - and the reward. That volatility increases in the transition from bull to bear markets seems to support this pet theory. But how to account for surging volatility in plummeting bourses? At the depths of the bear phase, volatility and risk increase while returns evaporate - even taking short-selling into account. "The Economist" has recently proposed yet another dimension of risk: "The Chicago Board Options Exchange's VIX index, a measure of traders' expectations of share price gyrations, in July reached levels not seen since the 1987 crash, and shot up again (two weeks ago)... Over the past five years, volatility spikes have become ever more frequent, from the Asian crisis in 1997 right up to the World Trade Centre attacks. Moreover, it is not just price gyrations that have increased, but the volatility of volatility itself. The markets, it seems, now have an added dimension of risk." Call-writing has soared as punters, fund managers, and institutional investors try to eke an extra return out of the wild ride and to protect their dwindling equity portfolios. Naked strategies - selling options contracts or buying them in the absence of an investment portfolio of underlying assets - translate into the trading of volatility itself and, hence, of risk. Short-selling and spread-betting funds join single stock futures in profiting from the downside. Market - also known as beta or systematic - risk and volatility reflect underlying problems with the economy as a whole and with corporate governance: lack of transparency, bad loans, default rates, uncertainty, illiquidity, external shocks, and other negative externalities. The behavior of a specific security reveals additional, idiosyncratic, risks, known as alpha. Quantifying volatility has yielded an equal number of Nobel prizes and controversies. The vacillation of security prices is often measured by a coefficient of variation within the Black-Scholes formula published in 1973. Volatility is implicitly defined as the standard deviation of the yield of an asset. The value of an option increases with volatility. The higher the volatility the greater the option's chance during its life to be "in the money" - convertible to the underlying asset at a handsome profit. Without delving too deeply into the model, this mathematical expression works well during trends and fails miserably when the markets change sign. There is disagreement among scholars and traders whether one should better use historical data or current market prices - which include expectations - to estimate volatility and to price options correctly. From "The Econometrics of Financial Markets" by John Campbell, Andrew Lo, and Craig MacKinlay, Princeton University Press, 1997: "Consider the argument that implied volatilities are better forecasts of future volatility because changing market conditions cause volatilities (to) vary through time stochastically, and historical volatilities cannot adjust to changing market conditions as rapidly. The folly of this argument lies in the fact that stochastic volatility contradicts the assumption required by the B-S model - if volatilities do change stochastically through time, the Black-Scholes formula is no longer the correct pricing formula and an implied volatility derived from the Black-Scholes formula provides no new information." Black-Scholes is thought deficient on other issues as well. The implied volatilities of different options on the same stock tend to vary, defying the formula's postulate that a single stock can be associated with only one value of implied volatility. The model assumes a certain - geometric Brownian - distribution of stock prices that has been shown to not apply to US markets, among others. Studies have exposed serious departures from the price process fundamental to Black-Scholes: skewness, excess kurtosis (i. e., concentration of prices around the mean), serial correlation, and time varying volatilities. Black-Scholes tackles stochastic volatility poorly. The formula also unrealistically assumes that the market dickers continuously, ignoring transaction costs and institutional constraints. No wonder that traders use Black-Scholes as a heuristic rather than a price-setting formula. Volatility also decreases in administered markets and over different spans of time. As opposed to the received wisdom of the random walk model, most investment vehicles sport different volatilities over different time horizons. Volatility is especially high when both supply and demand are inelastic and liable to large, random shocks. This is why the prices of industrial goods are less volatile than the prices of shares, or commodities. But why are stocks and exchange rates volatile to start with? Why don't they follow a smooth evolutionary path in line, say, with inflation, or interest rates, or productivity, or net earnings? To start with, because economic fundamentals fluctuate - sometimes as wildly as shares. The Fed has cut interest rates 11 times in the past 12 months down to 1.75 percent - the lowest level in 40 years. Inflation gyrated from double digits to a single digit in the space of two decades. This uncertainty is, inevitably, incorporated in the price signal. Moreover, because of time lags in the dissemination of data and its assimilation in the prevailing operational model of the economy - prices tend to overshoot both ways. The economist Rudiger Dornbusch, who died last month, studied in his seminal paper, "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics", published in 1975, the apparently irrational ebb and flow of floating currencies. His conclusion was that markets overshoot in response to surprising changes in economic variables. A sudden increase in the money supply, for instance, axes interest rates and causes the currency to depreciate. The rational outcome should have been a panic sale of obligations denominated in the collapsing currency. But the devaluation is so excessive that people reasonably expect a rebound - i. e., an appreciation of the currency - and purchase bonds rather than dispose of them. Yet, even Dornbusch ignored the fact that some price twirls have nothing to do with economic policies or realities, or with the emergence of new information - and a lot to do with mass psychology. How else can we account for the crash of October 1987? This goes to the heart of the undecided debate between technical and fundamental analysts. As Robert Shiller has demonstrated in his tomes "Market Volatility" and "Irrational Exuberance", the volatility of stock prices exceeds the predictions yielded by any efficient market hypothesis, or by discounted streams of future dividends, or earnings. Yet, this finding is hotly disputed. Some scholarly studies of researchers such as Stephen LeRoy and Richard Porter offer support - other, no less weighty, scholarship by the likes of Eugene Fama, Kenneth French, James Poterba, Allan Kleidon, and William Schwert negate it - mainly by attacking Shiller's underlying assumptions and simplifications. Everyone - opponents and proponents alike - admit that stock returns do change with time, though for different reasons. Volatility is a form of market inefficiency. It is a reaction to incomplete information (i. e., uncertainty). Excessive volatility is irrational. The confluence of mass greed, mass fears, and mass disagreement as to the preferred mode of reaction to public and private information - yields price fluctuations. Changes in volatility - as manifested in options and futures premiums - are good predictors of shifts in sentiment and the inception of new trends. Some traders are contrarians. When the VIX or the NASDAQ Volatility indices are high - signifying an oversold market - they buy and when the indices are low, they sell. Chaikin's Volatility Indicator, a popular timing tool, seems to couple market tops with increased indecisiveness and nervousness, i. e., with enhanced volatility. Market bottoms - boring, cyclical, affairs - usually suppress volatility. Interestingly, Chaikin himself disputes this interpretation. He believes that volatility increases near the bottom, reflecting panic selling - and decreases near the top, when investors are in full accord as to market direction. But most market players follow the trend. They sell when the VIX is high and, thus, portends a declining market. A bullish consensus is indicated by low volatility. Thus, low VIX readings signal the time to buy. Whether this is more than superstition or a mere gut reaction remains to be seen. It is the work of theoreticians of finance. Alas, they are consumed by mutual rubbishing and dogmatic thinking. The few that wander out of the ivory tower and actually bother to ask economic players what they think and do - and why - are much derided. It is a dismal scene, devoid of volatile creativity.

         
    Online stock trading

     

    Among the many revolutionary changes brought about by the advent of the Internet is online stock trading. Once the exclusive preserve of the rich and the wealthy, the stock market has now become a place where even the common man can play a part. Investors today can use Internet client-server technology to trade stocks anywhere, anytime they like. Just a couple of mouse clicks and the client is through with a thousand-dollar transaction! There are several ways in which one can participate in online stock trading. One can use an online broker, or do it himself. There are two types of online brokers: discount and full-service. The former are licensed individuals who have direct access to the share market. They neither give you advice nor research the best options. They just order the stocks you want at a discounted price. They earn no commission but make money by selling mass amounts of stock. In comparison, a full-service broker offers many more stocks. They act as your personal agent in all share-related activities, such as advice in buying shares, creating a safe investment portfolio, and offering investment advicemissions being their main source of revenue, they work hard to satisfy you. So they do a lot of research on the best stocks and investments for you, and hope you will stay with them. As stock trading is a complex thing, you should do your homework before taking the plunge online. Take into account how frequently you trade, what other services might interest you, how reliable the trading system is, whether it is difficult to log on when the market is active, and other variables. As hunch or intuition may turn out to be misleading, try to be conversant with the market’s state-of-the-art trading techniques and strategies. Try to read the quarterly or annual reports of the companies to know what they are doing with your money. When in doubt, ask your stockbroker.

         
     
         
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