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    Free Essay
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    Online stock trading is it here to stay

     

    Trading stocks on the internet is a relatively new thing for most people but it won’t be for long. The only reason that it is new in the first place is that the internet is new relatively speaking. In 1999 a little under 3 million people traded over the internet, now online stock trading has ballooned with more than 10 times that number of people trading daily. So why have people begun to do this? Why is it so popular? Well there are several reasons and some are good and some are not as sound when you think critically. The most popular reason cited for online stock trading is that they no longer have to forfeit some of their earnings to brokers in fees charged per trade. This doesn’t get them out of being charged fees per trade but it does cost a lot less to do it yourself with one of the dozens of day trading companies that there are available on the internet. People are often trying to get away from brokers all together for more than just the fees they charged. Many people are fed up with brokers who did poorly in the recent downturn in the market. Their performances were sub par and people lost a lot of money so you can’t blame them. However the word of caution is to not lump all brokers into the overpaid and under skilled group. There are many brokers who are well worth their weight in gold because they know the market so well and have such good instincts—this shouldn’t be your only draw to online stock trading. Other reasons people left their jobs to go into full time trading on the internet because they think that they can do better at it than at their real job and it will be more fun to boot. There is a certain romantic idea that people have about sitting in their beautiful home sipping gourmet coffee and checking in on their online stock trading portfolios a few times a day while making hundreds of thousands of dollars. This is a dangerous move for lots of people because they have no idea what they are getting into. In order to be successful you have to have knowledge of the world’s economies and how that can be affected by the current events of the day. You also have to be good at evaluation of companies as far as potential for profit and so on. The third thing that you must have is nerves of steel and a loose grip on the money that you are trading with. Many day traders (or former thereof) will tell you of the “hits” they have taken totaling many thousands of dollars in a few hours for a wrong move.

         
    Openwave could the little company ever become king

     

    Openwave has a very unique and valuable business in the wireless data market. It has a dominate market share of 50% in both the browser and in the gateway transitions for mobile phones. Both products are a core element in the data cell phone market. Our philosophy is to own the critical elements in markets that appear to have revolutionary growth. In January 2004 we wrote an article saying the wireless revolution has begun. Today based on very recent guidance from Texas Instrument (NYSE:TXN) Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) and other third party data it appears that wireless data market is actually accelerating. That appears opposite common wisdom judged by the way the world equity market and Openwave stock is trading for the last month. Usually revolutionary growth acceleration is misunderstood. I believe that robust growth from wireless data will catch many people by surprise when it is fully recognized. The browser and the gateway business are key’s to Openwave's success. Again it is our philosophy to own critical monopolistic elements inside an industry. We often equate our philosophy to a roof over your head and the gutter that controls the flow of water. Most water when it rain will land on a shingle but will collect in high volume in the gutters. Thus a single gutter can control as much water as all the shingles combined. This model of finding the essential elements or monopolist companies, judged by the many top rankings awarded to us by third party profession indicates a very successful approach. In wireless data market the gateway and the browsers form what we believe are that critical element in the industry with Openwave a dominate position in both those markets. This dominance of the critical element/monopoly creates a natural mote or barrier as Openwave is in a better position to bundle, integrate, and test its products, thus become a natural extension of their browser and/or gateway for every new service they enters. This bundled approach as Microsoft has proven over time not only has a higher comfort advantage for it’s users but also often could be produced at a far lower cost which the phone companies enjoy. These many economies of scale of a dominate player is attractive to the phone companies when they are both reviewing new or existing services. Put yourself in the place of a large carrier do you want to work with a new firm, with no proven history which would include additional integration, testing, billing plus on going maintenance or would you prefer an existing firm to increase their service or possibly just bundle the service into a existing product. That’s why it’s very hard for new wireless firms to make a presence in the wireless data market and the more established companies to consolidate when newer wire data services form. It appears industry wide that the consolidators including Comverse Technology Inc. (NADSAQ: CMVT) and Amdocs Ltd. (NYSE:DOX) appear to have advantage over many newer companies. Both of those companies specializes more on the back end. The higher growth market for phones will be with the data services and in my opinion Openwave is the best positioned as the industry continues to consolidate. About 60% of Openwave quarter is already booked not including about an addition 10% is pay as you go. That means Openwave needs about 30% of addition new revenues in the quarter. That indicates that Openwave has far smaller hurdle rate than most companies. The data supports that the number of new data phones growing combined with the rising usage of each phone with no new major competitive threats entering the market the probability of carriers to reorder is increasing. Openwave's high valued license revenues. Last quarter Openwave reported that licensing revenues was over 50% of total revenues and it had 97% gross margins. The licensing revenues make up over 70% of Openwave's gross profit. Understanding Openwave's business model is very simple if the licensing long term grows so will the profits so if licensing long term declines so will the profits. The last quarter the licensing saw some of the best quarter over quarter growth of (16%) and year over year growth of (34%). Over the last two year period Openwave’s licensing revenues grew at a 23 % annualized rate. Valuation. Openwave is now valued at about 12 time future earning and when you add up its dominance in market: The profitability of it core business and the business outlook for the wireless data industry. My opinion is this company should trade at a premium to its data wireless peers. Risk. The market value of Openwave stock and the wireless data industry have had many very large fluctuations in stock market value over time compared to their peers. Investors seeking to lower volatility should look to other investments. The major risk is that management underperforms. Since this is still a relatively new management team and the stock market saying with its large sell off of Openwave’s stock that this quarter will be a very difficult quarter, it’s now time to see if the management team can execute. The stock market in my opinion has already priced in a earning problem and any minor miss by management while still retaining their long term forecast , I believe would be rewarded. Conclusion. It’s my opinion this is what you look for in an investment, a company that has repeatedly demonstrated, since the new management has been in place, they are achieving their goals, and have echoed repeatedly said it’s on track for the long term. Openwave has a dominate position that is becoming more embedded in most major carriers every day. With it very high margins core business over time it can become very profitable business. It appears the market for its core products is accelerating and its stock market value is down significantly; again this is what I look for when I invest.

         
    Penny stock strategies

     

    Why should the rich guys have all the fun? The small investor can seek out huge returns too...if they know how. Technical analysis that uses statistics for forecasting price fluctuations is one approach. However, because it is difficult to track changes in fractions of a penny, there simply isn’t enough data to be able to analyze. Therefore, you have to keep an ear to the ground when you trade penny stocks. One of the biggest forces that drive penny stock prices is hype. Whether it’s online in discussion forums or chats, or offline with publicity and press, hype can cause swings in penny stock prices. Are you looking to trade penny stocks to earn a good return on your money? Penny stocks can be profitable for some, but it can also be a money-losing experience. What should you watch for when you trade penny stocks? What are some strategies that professionals and amateurs use when dabbling in the penny stock trade? One technique that some experts who trade penny stocks implement is to focus on a particular stock. Get to know the stock inside and out; that is, get to know the company behind the stock, any news about that company, and anything else that might affect the stock price. Target one stock, listen to the buzz, and see how the stock responds. The louder the buzz gets, the larger the potential for a big price swing. Many people who trade penny stocks are small-time investors who don’t have more than $1,000 of investment capital. These people trade penny stocks because it gives them more shares for the money. Where they might be able to buy dozens of shares in a major exchange such as the New York Stock Exchange, they can buy hundreds when they trade penny stocks. The potential for loss is big, however. It’s almost closer to gambling than investing. The money used is strictly risk capital. Once the money is gone, it’s gone. Another subset of people that trade penny stocks are amateur investors who use the buy and hold strategy. They purchase a stock and retain it for long periods of time, hoping that the stock skyrockets at some point in the future. Unfortunately, this strategy hardly ever pays off in the way that the investor had hoped. In the long-term, the stock could end up being completely worthless. Trading penny stocks can be a profitable, and even fun way to invest. It certainly isn’t a traditional method of investing, and is unlike old standbys such as bonds and mutual funds. However, trading penny stocks isn’t for all people. You should have a high tolerance for risk, a willingness to analyze every minutiae of your penny stock, and some intestinal fortitude. Have fun with penny stock trading, but don’t expect to stumble into the next WalMart for pennies on the dollar. And remember, as with anything else in life with high potential for gain there is also high potential for loss. Do your homework, follow your rules, and plan to prosper.

         
    Penny stocks turn your pennies into dollars

     

    Penny Stocks - Turn Your Pennies Into Dollars We've all heard about the investor how bragged about his 100% or 1000% return on a stock or about the guy who made it rich by investing in small caps, undiscovered stocks that made it big. In theory, it seems to be too easy. Invest in a couple of penny stocks, then sell them when they move up. Unfortunately, it is too easy. Too easy to lose money unless you know what to look for. First, lets have a look at what types of companies trade on the OTC BB or Pink Sheets. Stocks that no longer trade over $1 on the Nasdaq These include companies that fell from grace (Enron). While it is possible that they may see better days in the future, the odds are stacked against them. Its usually best to avoid trading these stocks. If you feel that the temptation is too much, wait until the stock begins to rebound. If you try catching a falling knife, you will get hurt. New Start Ups Every year there are hundreds if not thousands of companies who decided to go public. Whether they need the money to expand their business, or are looking to cash out their equity, its a natural progression for a company with a compelling story, and a great track record to go public. While many of these companies will file for an IPO, many others will start off trading on the OTC BB as a penny stock Second, lets look at some tips to help the penny stock trader avoid making costly mistakes. Due Diligence Stocks listed on the Pink Sheets don't have to file annual or quarterly statements. This makes starting your due diligence difficult. Often, the information is sketchy at best, and typically, its biased. You should expect a shareholder to say good things about the company. If the company didn't have potential, they wouldn't be holding it. Or, they might be hoping to unload their shares and hope to talk you into buying. Stocks listed on the OTC BB file annual and quarterly statements. This provides some measure of financial success. You'll find most penny stocks lose money, whether through managerial incompetence, or research and development. The key is to identify the companies whose management has a record of consistently making money, or at the very least, delivering on their business plan, and decreasing expenses. Penny Stock Newsletters Being a writer for The Leading Source (1source4stocks) puts me in a biased position when speaking to penny stock newsletters. Here's what I can tell you: be careful! Check the disclaimer for the amount the newsletter is being paid to carry the profile. Are they being paid in cash or in shares? You'll likely find a corelation between the number of shares they are being paid, and the rating on the hype meter. Does that mean that you should avoid any stock where the company is paying IR professionals in shares? No. Just keep in mind that they are selling a story, and if they sell the story to other shareholders, they will gain. This is not a problem if you get in early, but could be a problem if you aren't able to jump in right away. Take a look at the track record of the newsletter. Have they profiled winners? Do they state the facts, or state the hype? Do they also offer unpaid stock profiles? If they do, you'll likely find that they do their own research in all companies, and are looking to ensure that they aren't passing a weak stock your way just to pay the bills. If a company is paying an IR professional money to profile a stock to its subscribers, should you avoid it? Of course not. Think of the payment as advertising. They are promoting the company, and trying to get exposure. Like any company, the only way to get exposure is through some method of advertising. So dont dismiss a paid profile as hype. Keep it in the back of your mind while you are reading the profile, but pay attention to the profile. You may find a diamond in the rough that no one has discovered. Volume If you want to make money, you have to be able to buy and sell enough shares to lock in your profit, or protect your capital. If ABC company's daily volume is only 500 shares a day, it may take you several days to accumulate a position worth taking. If there is bad news, who is going to buy your shares? If the volume is low, stay away. Its not worth it. If you feel that strongly about owning the company, consider contacting the company directly and working out a deal. Buy Results, Not the Story If you buy the hype, odds are, you will end up being the last one to own the shares, while everyone else has sold off their position. Look at a company, take a look at what their business plan was, and confirm if they have followed through on that plan. Were they successful? Did they bring a product to market on time? Did the company follow through on its acquisition strategy in the manner they set out? The hype might get you a quick pop, however, unless you are watching your trading screen every second of the trading day, you will miss out. Size matters There are thousands upon thousands of penny stocks. The size of your position should not be anymore than $2000 - $3000. While this may not seem like much, keep in mind that its not unusual for a $0.10 company to drop to $0.05. That's a 50% loss. If your position is $10 000, a 50% haircut leaves you with only $5000. Keep your losses to a minimum. If the company has done well, and you are up, either take your profits off the table, or add to your position, and be sure to reset your stop loss so as to protect your previous profits. Capital preservation is the key to successful trading. Have a plan before you buy. What are your reasons for buying. What is your exit strategy? Where is your stop loss? At what point will you take your profit? Write down these answers before you place that buy order. Penny stock investing can be profitable. Remember, you are taking larger risks than you would if you were purchasing shares in a bank stock. That risk can be rewarded with returns that you cant get with a bank stock, or, it will be met with a large loss and a bad taste in your mouth for investing in penny stocks. Do your homework, don't believe the hype, and protect your capital. Note: The Leading Source provides its subscribers with both paid and unpaid profiles. Follow those tips and you will watch your pennies grow into dollars.

         
    Penny stocks beyond the pump and dump

     

    Penny Stocks can be a great investment, but you have to know what to look for, or sometimes more accurately, what to look out for. Buying Penny Stocks based on a recent email you received, or what you heard from someone you barely know, is not usually a good idea. Penny Stocks have historically been a source of wealth for many investors, but conversely have been the source of countless lost small fortunes. Determining what is good advice, mixed with all the hype, can sometimes be a very difficult process. You don't have to be a stock market guru or brilliant investor to make a killing with Penny Stocks, but you do have to be willing to do your homework, and use a great deal of common sense to stay alive when you are swimming with the sharks in what can be dangerous waters. There are many great small companies in existence today, struggling to stay afloat, that are tomorrow's rising stars. Without the capital to grow and expand very few of our current generation of conglomerates would be more than a forgotten flash in the pan. Selling shares of a company can inject the needed capital into a niche business that may take it into the next level. However not all, if not most, of these tiny corporations will be around for very long. This creates an interesting situation for us, the investor or speculator. While the company in question may not be worth much today, what might that company be worth tomorrow? Hence the term speculation, which is the lifeblood of any Penny Stock trader. Unfortunately, within this world there are a few unseemly characters, who seek to part you from your hard earned dollars. And, they will go to nearly whatever means is necessary to achieve their goal. PR firms, or Investor Awareness firms, are sometime hired to promote a small corporation's stock in hopes of raising the share price. This in itself is not necessarily a sign of ill intent. Many times a small company may be very good at what it does, but for whatever reason finds itself unable to generate enough press interest in their successes to generate buying activity of their stock shares. However, this is occasionally done with the sole purpose of raising prices rapidly in an attempt to make quick profits on a very hollow company, one that has no real market or solid foundation. Hence the phrase, pump and dump. Pump and dump in a nutshell means, exaggeratedly "pumping" up the company in question with the primary intent of "dumping" their shares once the share prices begin to rise. What can you do to protect yourself from being caught up in a pump and dump scenario? Most importantly you must use your own due diligence to wade through the hype. Ask yourself a few basic questions about the company in question. Are they making money? Are they creating new products? Are these new products going to be valuable in the future? The rules for trading Penny Stocks aren't much different from those of trading large cap stocks. However, the risks can be much larger, but the rewards can be as well. If you aren't willing to do at least a bit of homework, investing in any stock is not a good idea. Never rely entirely on anyone's advice, especially when dealing with Penny Stocks. But, if you take the time to research your investments, investing in Penny Stocks can be a very financially rewarding experience.

         
    Pink sheets discover disclosure

     

    Once upon a time in the world of finance there were three kingdoms the most widely recognized was also the most snobbish and wealthiest its subjects were affluent and known worldwide. Its king was NYSE (New York Stock exchange) the king ruled proudly over his subjects. Every brokerage firm had a stock ticker to provide their customer with trade information on NYSE listed stocks. The second kingdom was not so well off, it had less subjects and the inhabitants were much poorer than those ruled by NYSE, the king was named AMEX (American Stock Exchange). They could be classified as low middle class. Now the third kingdom was the largest of all, it’s subjects range from middle class to very poor, this kingdom was ruled by OTC (Over The Counter Market). Some of the subjects of OTC were always looking to migrate to NYSE or Amex to escape the stigma attached to being a resident of OTC. Some of the stock that at one time traded in the Pink Sheets are well known today such as EDS and many new IPO, as well as bank and insurance companies, but you also had stocks trading for a fraction of a penny. If you wanted a price on a OTC stock you would call your broker who looked in the pink sheets to see who the market makers were, he would get on the phone to a market maker and ask the person answering the phone for a quote, the person answering the phone then gets the price from a blackboard in the front of the room and give it to the broker making the inquiry, this would take some time. Market makers had a quote boy in the front of the trading room changing the blackboard every time a trader yelled a different price, this markets were good for 100 shares, In those days it was possible to buy from one market maker at a price and turn around and sell to another market maker at higher price because the one market maker had no idea what the market was unless he made a phone call. So you always found disparities in the price of a stock. Along came a knight in shining armor named NASDAQ the NASD Automatic Quotation System, which allow brokers to see the price by computer, it gave the mean market (average market) not the best price, but it was a giant step forward. These NASDAQ machine did not provide live quotes you had to keep on pressing the enter key in order to see the updated quote. And eventually all the better stocks were gradually included on the NASDAQ systems leaving the more obscure and unprofitable companies to trade on the pink sheet. And again the NASD decided to sink the pink sheets even further into the land of obscurity by creating the OTC Bulletin Board. The OTC Bulletin Board started out not requiring much information from the issuer but gradually started requesting more information and now they must have audited financial and must be reporting. All this left the pink as the only market in total disclosure darkness being the only ones not requiring the issuer to disclose its financial reports. But on February 15, 2005 a little daylight came into the pinks, on this day a new policy was implemented, this policy requires issuers of newly traded securities to disclose adequate current information to the investing public. This is only required of those companies which have securities quoted on an unsolicited basis on the pink sheets, and have never been listed on an exchange or quoted on the OTCBB. If an issuer is quoted on an unsolicited basis, this means that the NASD has not cleared a market maker to enter a quote in the security pursuant to SEC Rule 15c2-11. Instead, a broker is relying on an exemption to the rule in order to display a quotation representing an unsolicited customer order. This exception has been used to trade securities of new issuers without any disclosure to the investing public. To address this situation, in October 2004, Pink Sheets revised their policy for brokers entering unsolicited quotes in a new security that has never been listed on an exchange or quoted on the OTCBB. They now require that prior to publication of an unsolicited quote in the Pink Sheets for such securities the broker must ascertain that the issuer has made adequate current information publicly available on the pink sheets website. The disclosure policy has been a good attempt at creating transparency of the basic information that investors trading in public markets deserve. Pink Sheets is now extending this requirement to companies that were previously quoted on an unsolicited basis. If the companies did not make the required disclosure by February 15, 2005, they removed their displayed quotation from the website. This new policy is a big step forward for the Pink Sheets and they should be applauded for it, but I Personally would like to see all companies being required to make complete disclosure. If a company is unable for whatever reason to disclose their finances and corporate updates to the investing public then they should not be allow to trade on any public market. These companies operating in total darkness are the vehicles being used by stock manipulators to scam the investing public, even though the Pink Sheets have taken this giant step they must remove all non-disclosing companies from the public market place. I am not sure the pink Sheets have the authority to do so but SEC does, and the SEC is the agency responsible for protecting the investing public. Lets congratulate the Pink sheet for this change in policy and hope that they will continue to upgrade their standards, as a direct result of this policy we at Genesis Corporate Advisors are changing our policy of not bringing any company public to the Pink sheets. Effective immediately we will begin considering candidate for the Pink sheets but our preference will continue to be The OTC Bulletin Board because we want as much transparency as possible. In order to have viable healthy market you must have willing investors with access to current and accurate information. For additional information visit: genesiscorporateadvisors

         
    Pips and stocks

     

    Those of you contemplating on getting in on stocks or in the stock market, should take time to learn about highs/lows, bid/asks, charts, pips, spreads and so on to avoid up-and-coming high plunges. Staying informed is the key to successfully gaining in any stock market exchange industry. Despite, you want to commit oneself to charts and information that offers you trueness in the stock market, Forex exchange markets, and other stock industries. Failing to do so could lead to financial blunder. About Stock Charts: Charts are engaged in stock market exchange and Forex trading industries. The charts are guides, that aid strategists by allowing them to read, interpret through indicators, which submit signals. Inside the boundaries, the charts are treks, inherent strategies, powers, and so more. In AMEX's, strategists and investors base their bids/asks, or buy and sell on under and highs. The high and low in some instance have pips, currencies, spreads, or shares, which traders make good use of stock charts to keep up with these factors in stock exchange. In the stock biz, small and large cyber-banking institutions, as well as large and small companies globally invest in stocks, or Forex stock exchange. Brokers, investors and traders use charts, which the strategists are, issued recites on both sides, which make up ask and bid phrase, depending on the stock market. The bids make up pricing, which initiates once indicators inside the boundaries programs alert traders on Seat Questioning that sprouts between buying currencies on conflicting sides. Once the brisk' come in, the tradesman might select the option "ask" once the pricing occurs. The trader fundamentals proof on his, 'ask' which could alter. Quotes enable traders to set their marks on pips, which can decide statistics that rise, in excess the averages. In AMEX's, decimals convert in some instances to match exchange within the currencies of any participating country engaging in stock exchange. Decimals base values, which are dependable at all times. Charts read out prints of daily activities in stock market exchange. The charts present the highs and lows, as well as various other factors in stock marketing, which are invaluable to anyone trading, investing or brokerage in the market. One of the vast growing stock industries is FX or Forex market exchange. The foreign market exchanges currencies (E. g. USD/JPY, EUR/USD, etc) in stocks that have reached in the trillion brackets. That is trillions in a sole stock exchange industry. This fiscal market exchange has created the hardest mark in the stock market industries. The market has overridden the preponderant United States investment branches. In fact, the Europe (EUR) dollar is more valuable currently than the dollar in the United States of America. If you intend to invest or take part in stock exchange, you are wise to become informed before making any investment. Those informed often have a better chance at winning in the game of stocks. Learn more about pips, spreads and other specifics so that you know what it outlines for you.

         
    Profit every time you see signs of strength and signs of weakness in the markets

     

    Copyright 2006 Peter Woodhead There are two questions that are continually asked: 1. What do I do when I see signs of weakness? 2. What do I do when I see signs of strength? Before these two critical questions can be answered, ALWAYS remember that true weakness comes in on an UP bar and …. True strength ALWAYS comes in on DOWN bars. On true signs of weakness you should: a) initiate new short position(s) b) reverse old long positions to short c) close out any long positions On signs of strength you should: a) initiate new long position(s) b) reverse old short positions to long c) close out any short positions Why is your reaction to a strong sign of strength (or weakness) so important? Because whenever a true sign of strength (or weakness) is seen the market makers and professionals will notice it straight away and act accordingly. So what is meant by a “true” sign of strength (or weakness)? You should observe a strong volume bar straight away to support your position. If no such bar is present, that indicates that the professional money is not interested in the move because they know the market is still weak (or strong) and you can expect a move in the opposite direction to what you may have thought. Probably resulting in another period of accumulation or distribution before the next indicator. The Golden Rule: Understand where the professional money is and follow them. If they aren’t interested, neither should you be. If they are interested (shown by buying/selling), then back your judgement. Most traders don’t have a clue as to what’s going on in the markets. But you will, if you take the time to understand how the professionals operate and what causes the moves in the market. You will get to time your entry and exit points to near perfection. For example: After a sharp move up you should expect a down move. After a strong bar up, sellers are tempted by the new high prices. This can be seen by any lack of follow through and the appearance of a strong down bar. Those who matter (the professionals) would see this, enter their positions, and force the market down. Conversely, after a sharp down move, you can expect weakness. Look for a classic “test” Look for the professionals entering the market and go with them. It is essential that you really understand how the markets work before you start trading. So many people ignore this fact. That's why they never really "get it." The master at how to trade like the professionals is a guy called Tom Williams. His "The Undeclared Secrets That Drive the Stock Market" is a classic. And is required reading.

         
    Profitable trading system

     

    After you have found a profitable trading system that you already back-tested, how can you be sure that this system will produce the same gains in future? Nobody can predict the future, your system can easily make losses in next years or can be no tradable. There are some tests you must do before accepting a trading system, these tests swill show the robustness of your system and when passing these tests, it will be more likely to show gain in future. Test 1 : Make sure that you put liquidity rule, that your entry and exit prices are realizable. Test 2: Examine again your trading systems and your rules (This is very important). I made dozen of trading systems that showed great results but after more examination, it showed that i cannot follow them in real life. Check if there is one stock that made very big gain, the system will maybe become no profitable without this stock. Test 3: Change twice or 3 times the date of begin for the simulation, if it still show good results then it has passed the test 3. Test 4: Change values of some parameters or variables you have in your trading system rules, you must change one value and then back-test, change another and then back-test... If the results are not affected very badly then it passed the test 4. Test 5: Try to restrict the system from buying 20% or more of stocks you previously bought when doing the back-test. Then re-run the back-test. To pass this test, system must show pretty the same results as before. Test 6: Equity chart must have a good look, check some statistic values like sharpe ratio, sortino ratio, standard deviation, maximum drawdown, average day for gains recovery... It depends on the risk you are willing to take but choose only systems that have : higher sharpe ratio, higher sortino ratio, lower standard deviation, lower maximum drawdown... Exclude systems that have very big max drawdown, standard deviation and average day for gains recovery. The must important factor i think is average day for gains recovery. Its the average number of day that you must wait until your equity value will goes back to the same level before the drawdown happen. Big values will let you wait for long times before recovering gains and for sure many traders will abandon their trading system, and that's the worse thing that can happen to a trader because just after that, the system will show excellent results. (That's always happen) Theses tests are very restrictive and you will reject maybe all your trading systems, but when trading you will put your money, real money, so i think you must be very selective to make all chance in your side.

         
    Profiting from the anomalies stock markets are not always right

     

    There are many different factors that affect stock market levels on a minute-to-minute basis. This includes inflation data, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, unemployment, supply, demand, political changes, and broader economic forces, among others. Complicating this are some general market trends, which have been determined historically to exist. Like their share-price-based brothers, these stock market anomalies may provide buying opportunities for investors. These anomalies include: Price-based regularities: 1. Lower-priced stocks tend to outperform higher-priced stocks, and companies tend to appreciate in value after the announcement of stock split. 2. Smaller companies tend to outperform larger companies, which is a key reason for investing in small cap stocks. 3, Companies tend to reserve their price direction in the short and long-term. 4panies that have a depressed stock price tend to suffer from tax-loss selling in December and bounce back in January. Calendar-based regularities: These regularities allow you to better time your investments in the short-term. Although investors should remember that over the long term the benefits of a regular investment plan (investing each month) far outweigh the benefits of trying to time your investment by a day or two, the following patterns have been shown to occur. 1. Time-of-the-day effect. The beginning and the end of the stock market day exhibit different return and volatility characteristics. 2. Day-of-the-week effect. The stock markets tend to start the week weak and finish the week strong. 3. Week-of-the-month effect. The stock market tends to earn the majority of its returns in the first two weeks of the month. 4. Month-of-the-year effect. The first month of the year tends to show increased returns over the rest of the year. This is referred to as the January effect. Investors should remember that not every anomaly comes about every time, but making sure you're aware of anomalies will allow you to profit over the long-term and deal with market volatility in the short-term. In short, profit from these anomalies, but don't aim to make use of these anomalies at the expense of your long-term investment objectives.

         
    Quelling your investment fear

     

    : Investing can be dangerous yet profitable endeavor. Many people have been burnt and decide not to ever invest again. This is the primary fear for investing in anything. They may give you excuse such as 'I don't have enough money' or 'I don't know where to invest'. But the number one fear is always the fear of losing money. If a novice investor knows that he won't lose money, he must have used all means necessary (such as loan) to buy as much investment opportunity possible. Investing here can mean a lot of things from buying gold coin to real estate. However, common stock is the most popular form of investing since more than 50% of the US household invest in it. There are several ways of how to reduce your fear of investing in common stock. Get Educated. When you know more about something, you are more certain of your outcome. When you know how to calculate the fair value of a common stock, you will know your expected return of investment. Remember that the less uncertainty you have, the less risk you undertake. You will also know more about the downside risk of your investment.

    If a common stock has $ 3 per share of positive net cash, is profitable and is currently trading at $ 5 per share, then you know that it won't trade at below $ 3 per share for a long period of time. Your maximum possible risk here is 40% of your original investment. Start Small. When you begin your investing journey, you have a lot of unknowns.

    Less education means more unknown which means greater risk. How small should you start? As much money that you can afford to lose.

    If you still have no idea, then how about $ 1 a day? One dollar a day will give you $ 500,000 after fifty years of investing with 10.5 % return. Even if you have $ 500,000 right now, it is better for you to start small if you are a novice investor. Pay Yourself First. By this, it does not mean that investors use their money to buy unnecessary stuff. Pay Yourself First means that you find investment that can pay you first as investors.

    What investment can pay you first? One thing that comes to mind is buying a common stock that historically has a steady or increasing dividends. There are one more way to pay yourself first by selling covered call options. For novice investors, however, I suggest we put this subject off until you get really really comfortable with investing in common stock. Learn From Your Mistake. Once you begin investing, the fear of losing money is always there.

    The best way to learn is from your own mistake. But to hasten your learning curve, we have compiled a list of 15 common investing pitfalls that is frequently committed by novice investors. Will you be fear-free after reading this column? The answer is no. Fear is always there because of uncertainty. Successful investing is about predicting the future which is uncertain.

    Even investing in your money-market account is uncertain. It involves some small risk. The risk might be inflation being higher than the interest rate offered. There is also uncertainty regarding the direction of interest rate. Interest rate used to be in the high single digits during the 1980s.

    Look where it is now. We live in uncertain world. Instead of hiding behind the wall, we need to embrace it and educate ourselves to reduce the uncertainty. Doing this will in effect increase our investment return beyond the rate of inflation.

         
    Relax a volatile stock market is your dearest friend

     

    Most people never forget their first love. I'll never forget my first trading profit! But the $600 (1970 dollars) I pocketed on Royal Dutch Petroleum was not nearly as significant as the conceptual realization it signaled! I was amazed that someone would pay me that much more for my stock than the newspaper said it was worth just a few weeks earlier! What had changed? What had happened to make the stock go up, and why had it been down in the first place? Without ever needing to know the answers, I've been trading RD for thirty-six years! Looking at scores of similarly profitable, high quality companies in this manner, you would find that: (1) most move up and down regularly (if not predictably) with an upward long-term bias, and (2) that there is little if any similarity in the timing of the movements between the stocks themselves. This is the "Volatility" that most people fear and that Wall Street loves them to fear. It can be narrowly confined to certain sectors, or much broader, encompassing practically everything. The broader it becomes, the more likely it is to be categorized as either a rally or a correction. Most years will feature one or two of each. This is the natural condition of things in the stock market, Mother Nature, Inc. if you will. Don't take her for granted when she gets high, and never ignore her when she feels low. Embrace her volatile moods, work with them in whatever direction they travel, and she will become your love as well! Ironically, it is this natural volatility (caused by hundreds of variables human, economic, political, natural, etc.) that is the only real "certainty" existent in the financial markets. And, as absurd as this may sound until you experience the reality of it all, it is this one and only certainty that makes Mutual Funds in general (and Index Funds in particular) totally unsuitable as investment vehicles for anyone within seven to ten years of retirement! How many Mutual Fund investors have retired recently with more liquid financial assets than they had seven years ago, way back in 1999? There will always be rallies and corrections. In fact, it is worthwhile to "go back to the future" to establish a realistic Investment Strategy. In the last forty years, there have been no less than ten 20% or greater corrections followed by rallies that brought the market to significantly higher levels. The DJIA peaked at 2700 before its record 40% crash in 1987. But at 1700, it was still 70% above the 1000 barrier that it danced around with for decades before... always a higher high, rarely a lower low. The '87 debacle was followed by several slightly less exciting corrections, but the case was being made for a more flexible, and realistic, Investment Strategy. Mutual Funds were spawned by a Buy and Hold Mentality; Mother Nature, Inc is a much more complicated enterprise. Call it foresight, or hindsight if you want to be argumentative, but a long-term view of the Investment Process eliminates the guesswork and points pretty clearly toward a trading mentality that keys on the natural volatility of hundreds of Investment Grade Equities. During corrections, consider these simple truths: 1) although there are more sellers than buyers, the buyers intend to make money on their purchases, 2) so long as everything is down, don't worry so much about the price of individual holdings, 3) fast and steep corrections are better than the slow attrition variety, 4) always accept even half your normal profit target while buying opportunities are plentiful, 5) don't be in a rush to fill your portfolio, but if cash dries up before it's over, you are doing it "correctly". Most of the problems with Mutual Funds and much of the increased opportunity in Individual Stock trading are functions of growing non-professional Equity ownership. Everyone is in the stock market these days whether they like it or not, and when the media fans the emotions of the masses, the masses create volatility that rarely under-reacts to market conditions! Rarely will unit owners take profits, particularly if they have to pay withdrawal penalties or taxes. Even more unusual are expert advisors who encourage investors to move into the markets when prices are falling. A volatile market creates opportunities with every gyration, but you have to be willing to transact to reap the benefits. A necessary first step is to recognize that both "up" and "down" markets are forces of nature with abundant potential. The proper attitude toward the latter, will make you much more appreciative of the former. Most investment strategies require answers to unanswerable questions, in an effort to be in the right place at the right time. Indecisiveness doesn't cut it with Mamma... in or out too soon is not an issue with her. But wasting the opportunities she provides really ticks her off! Successful investment strategies require an understanding of the forces of nature, and disciplined rules of portfolio management. If you can transition back to individual securities, you will do better at moving toward your goals, most of the time, because the opportunities are out there... all of the time. So let's adopt some new rules for this investment game and learn to live with them for a few cycles: Let's buy good stocks new and old at lower prices during corrections. Let's take reasonable profits on those that go up in price, whenever they are kind enough to do so. Let's examine our performance based on the results of these trading transactions alone and at market cycle examination points for a smiley faced change of pace. And one other thing... Let's drink a toast to Mother Nature, her uncertainty, her volatility, and, of course, to our first loves.

         
    Report on stock research

     

    The report of stock research contains all the information like the fair value estimate of a company’s worth. Likewise, guides on when to buy and when to sell stocks as well as the selling prices of stocks are also discussed and displayed on the stock research report. A stock research report is accomplished by expert analysts who are renowned in their own companies and their industries. Their reports mainly cover strengths and weaknesses, lines of business, what’s good and bad about recent stock investment decisions as well as some projections of what to expect from a company in terms of its financial health. The stock research report also tells you whether a company is worth buying or selling and just when to buy and sell stocks from this company. Knowing such information can help you in earning back a great deal of profits from your stock investment. In addition, the significance of such reports cannot be taken for granted, especially in a world where the market is unstable, wherein in a blink of an eye you might lose everything you have invested. Stock research reports keep you up-to-date with the latest and timely developments happening in the stock market. Stock reports are just one of the services provided by most online stock research providers. When you sign up or joined an online stock research provider you were provided with stock alerts regarding new analyst reports plus some daily commentaries. Aside from that, you will also enjoy the privilege of having daily dose of expert opinion about companies they cover in the news. They also have portfolio alerts that tell you when your portfolio is underperforming or outperforming. With a stock research report you will always be guided on what course of actions to take especially if you cannot monitor your portfolio regularly. Remember that the stock investment requires for keen monitoring or else you will find yourself losing money instead of gaining back more profit. However, the stock research report is not a free service, most providers of these types of reports only offer free-day trials for new members but afterwards would require for a monthly or annual subscription fee. Be sure to correctly choose the stock research provider; opt for those highly regarded providers that already have names in the stock investment market. Don’t be fooled by those stock research providers claiming that they have the best stock investment solutions and promises you very high rate of investment returns. These promises often times just remain to be a promise that can never be realized since the provider that you have chosen is really not that knowledgeable in stock investment. Look for those providers that possess credible portfolios and to be really sure you may try to confirm by researching further the authenticity of their claims. You may also try to ask your friends, colleagues and family whether they are familiar with the provider you are investigating. Even better still, ask people in the stock market if they are familiar with the provider you are inquiring about. If it is really true that they are a reputable stock research provider, then their reputation will echo the sentiment.

         
    Retail is for stockpickers

     

    Since September 2004, the S&P Retail Index has been caught in a sideways consolidation channel at between 400 and 500, unable to establish a sustainable trend in one direction or the other. During that time, the monthly retail numbers have been largely mixed. But in January, the retail data (excluding auto) was impressive, showing growth of 2.20% versus the estimate of 0.8%. It was the strongest reading in years. Yet the initial optimism appears to be fading after seeing mixed reports from the nation’s retailers on Thursday. The early data suggests that same-store sales growth will be sub par compared to what we saw in January. The reading in January may have been an aberration because of warmer than expected temperatures. The surfacing of cold weather in February apparently sent a chill through the pocketbooks of consumers. Also, the strong January sales may have taken away from spending in February. The reality is the absence of a positive trend in retail makes investing in retail stocks more of a risk. You need to pick the right company. Even bellwether stocks such as Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) are struggling as far as its share price in spite of some decent sales results and same-store sales growth. But the current valuation deserves a look. Youth oriented clothes retailer Gap (GPS) is a company that is clearly struggling at the cash register. Its February same-store sales crashed 11% year-over-year, well above the Street estimate calling for a decline of 6.80%. This followed on the heels of an 11% decline in the company’s Q4 earnings along with a FY07 forecast that was short of Wall Street expectations. GAP expects comparable-store sales to be negative in the first half and turn moderately positive for the remainder of the year. Same-store sales are widely viewed as the best indicator of a retailer's health. For investors, GAP is clearly a turnaround play that could pay off if it can somehow figure out how to attract shoppers. The fact is the company has great brand awareness and this counts for something in this brand conscious world we live in. On the upside, you have a company like Best Buy (BBY), a dominant market leader in consumer electronics. The stock is just below its 52-week high, up 69% from its yearly low. The reality is retail spending may be impacted by the higher financing costs associated with the rising debt loads across America. The personal savings rate is declining and was negative in January. Consumers are eating into their savings and you know this cannot be good for retail. Note: you are welcome to post this article on your site if it is financial related. You must cut and paste the bio and make sure the web site link is live. Also please e-mail me to let me know.

         
    Rising commodity prices causing new turmoil through the mining sector

     

    The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is holding steady above 120, having reached a high above 156 in January, a level it had not seen since September 18, 1987. The spot uranium price is higher than it’s been since January 1980. Crude oil? Filling up your gas tank should remind you that oil prices are still painfully high. So all of this must mean mining companies are thrilled with their good fortune? WRONG! There’s a snowballing crisis in the mining sector, which has been kept off the typical investor’s radar screen. This new emergency could drive commodity prices to even higher levels over the coming months, and possibly until the end of the decade. The two-decade long bear market drove many geologists out of the mining sector. Drilling companies went bankrupt. Even with the recent explosion of activity in the mining sector, exploration in the sector is less than one-third of its peak in 1981, when more than 5,500 drill rigs were running. The mining sector’s labor and drill rig shortage has gone past the “we’re in a crisis” stage. Without qualified geological staff and drill rigs for exploration and development programs, companies may fail to get their projects online fast enough to satisfy the worldwide demand for their metals, whether it is gold, silver, copper, or uranium. The Baker Hughes North American rotary rig count is a good barometer of how strongly the commodities boom has impacted the sector. In 1999, the U. S. and Canadian drill rig count reached its nadir of 488. On March 17th, the number stood at 1546 and climbing. Over the past seven years, the count jumped 316 percentpared to a year ago, the North American Rotary Rig Count is up by nearly 20 percent. During the course of our three-month investigation, we found the labor and equipment shortage applied not only to uranium but also to coal, oil and gas, coal bed methane and precious metals exploration. Ed Calvert, who runs Nucor Drilling Inc in Wyoming, exclaimed, “There just aren’t any rigs available in the U. S. You may find one, but it’s a problem finding the right rig at the right time.” His company began searching for a drill rig in September for drilling scheduled to commence June 1st. Calvert explained that the big oil companies had signed up rig contracts so they wouldn’t get caught short, adding, “Whether the rigs are being used daily or not, they are paying the fees to hold them.” Vancouver-based Max Resources announced in early January of this year they had received permits to drill on their Thomas Mountain uranium prospect in Utah. They hoped to drill in late January, depending upon drill rig availability. Max Resources recently announced it planned to start drilling on or about the middle of March. Norman Burmeister planned more wisely, announcing in mid January Kilgore Minerals would drill the company’s Idaho gold property in July. The drill rig shortage pales when compared to the frighteningly tight labor market in the mining sector. According to the February 2006 Employment Situation Summary, published by the U. S. Department of Labor, “Mining continued its upward trend in February, adding 5,000 jobs.” Cynthia Pomeroy, Director of Wyoming’s Department of Employment confirmed the crisis, “There is definitely a labor shortage.” Matt Grant, assistant director of the Wyoming Mining Association adamantly announced, “There are 800 direct job openings in the mining business that could be filled today.” He quickly noted another 2400 indirect jobs to service the mining industry remain empty, begging for bodies to satisfy those positions. Starting geologists make between $35,000 and $50,000 annually. Top geologists command $200,000 and higher. Mining consultants get $800-1000/day. Even day helpers on drill rigs can charge $22/hour or more. Wyoming state and county development associations have attended job fairs in Michigan earnestly trying to fill the growing job vacancy by recruiting laid-off auto workers. David Michaud, president of TheJobPit, finds jobs for geologists, metallurgists and others in the mining sector. A mining engineer and consulting metallurgist, having graduated from Queens University in Kingston, Ontario, and until recently the operations manager for Corriente Resources in Ecuador, he began his internet employment agency for the mining sector because the demand was overwhelming. “Headhunters who have been around for twenty years say they’ve never seen a market like this,” Michaud stressed. “For the last ten years, the mining industry fed mining graduates to the wolves. Now they need them. All are busy with no takers to those far away places.” Michaud lambasted the mining companies for their lack of foresight, “Mining companies have to expect the demand for professionals, such as production geologists, will go up with the price of metals. There were no jobs for the past eight years.” He added, “It takes two to five years to train them.” For example, Michaud is desperately trying to fill a South American mining company’s job opening for an experienced metallurgist. “Free housing, two cars, four weeks off annually, two plane tickets, basically no living expenses, and a salary starting at US$150, 000,” Michaud sadly explained because no one has jumped at the offer. “In the field of metallurgy, including mill managers, metallurgical engineers, techs and operators, about 150 new jobs are offered each month.” Only about one-half will be filled. Michaud warned the copper mining companies were in especially dire straits to fill new job openings. The U. S. Energy Information Administration announced in its most recently published annual report, “The U. S. uranium production industry initiated a turnaround in 2004. All U. S. uranium drilling, mining, production, and employment activities increased for the first time since 1998. More companies conducted exploration and development drilling than in the prior 2 years. Employment in the U. S. uranium production industry totaled 420 person-years, an increase of 31 percent from the 2003 total. Wyoming accounted for 33 percent of the total 2004 employment, while Colorado and Texas employment almost tripled since 2003. Overall, $86.9 million went to drilling, production, land, exploration, reclamation and restoration activities in 2004.” While the spot uranium price continues rising, exploration companies may find it harder to recruit veteran uranium geologists, to sign contracts for drill rigs, and to operate those rigs. Nucor’s Calvert laughed, “Finding and keeping employees is definitely a problem.” Michaud explained, “Finding a metallurgist is hard enough. Finding one with uranium experience is almost impossible.” David Miller, president of Strathmore Minerals, lamented, “Expertise in the uranium industry started with geologists who made discoveries in the late 1940s through the late 1970s. They trained the next generation, which coincided with the 1970s uranium boom. That boom was short lived and fizzled out by 1981. A very small number of professionals continued in the uranium industry, during the twenty-year bear market. Now that the number of uranium companies has skyrocketed to more than 420, there is a potentially catastrophic shortage of uranium expertise.” The generation gap has come to haunt the industry. What’s the solution? Many, such as Michaud, believe, “Retired baby boomers are coming out of retirement to fill the generational gap and ride their last metal rush into the sunset.” Bloomberg News ran a story on December 8th discussing developments in the oil sector, “U. S. producers and contractors such as Ryder Scott, which assesses drilling projects and oil and natural-gas reserves, are working harder to keep their oldest employees and recruit college graduates because there aren't enough new engineers to go around. Engineers who help find petroleum deposits are in demand…” Aging talent has found its way back into the uranium sector. Aging geologists such as Dr. Boen Tan, who helped discover two of the Key Lake uranium deposits in Canada’s uranium-rich Athabasca Basin in the early 1970s, is now helping Forum Development explore for new uranium deposits at its Costigan Lake, Key Lake Road and Maurice Point projects in Athabasca. Uranerz Energy’s entire advisory board consists of former Uranerz professionals, including top geologists, Dr. Franz Dahlkamp and Dr. Gerhard Ruhrmann. Respectively, they have 45 and nearly 30 years experience in the sector. Strathmore Minerals geological team includes former Pathfinder Mines employees, a subsidiary of Cogema, including board member Dieter Krewedl, President David Miller, and vice president of technical services, John DeJoia. Some of these companies bring more than 200 years of experience, collectively, to their new ventures. But without sufficient new mining school graduates to mentor under them, future exploration and development may become stalled. What is troubling about the uranium market, in particular, is that the soaring spot uranium price shows no signs of abating. The crisis comes at a time when President Bush announced his nuclear initiative, as more U. S. utilities plan to add to the country’s nuclear fleet, and as China and India clamor for a reliable source of uranium to fuel their aggressive nuclear energy programs. Without uranium for those reactors, the power plants won’t produce the electricity required to meet their demand. As an aside, uranium mining is the stage in the nuclear fuel cycle where the environmentalist fanatics are baring their teeth. This past November, an office manager at Albuquerque’s Southwest Research and Information Center, an anti-nuclear activist group reportedly funded by Mott’s Applesauce and Ben & Jerry’s ice cream, told us when we went undercover, “We want to stop the front end of the nuclear fuel cycle, which is uranium mining.” Don’t say the warnings weren’t made well in advance. At the World Nuclear Association (WNA) Symposium in 2004, Dr Moukhtar Dzhakishev, a Russian physicist and a former deputy minister of energy and mineral resources, presented his conclusions, “Firstly, natural uranium mining capacities cannot satisfy reactor requirements. Secondly, accumulated uranium inventories will be exhausted sooner or later. Thirdly, the spot price does not reflect the actual problems and, on the contrary, is capable of misleading all of us about the urgency of investments to be made in the development of new mining facilities.” In his speech, Dr. Dzhakishev emphasized to the WNA, “Judging by these facts, the conclusion is evident: one day nuclear power plants will face a natural uranium shortage and it is not necessary to be a prophet to foresee this. It is clear today that the key to the solution of the major problems of the uranium market lies with the development of the potential of the uranium producers.” This past August, Angela Jameson reported in the online version of The London Times, “A GLOBAL shortage of uranium could jeopardise plans to build a new generation of nuclear power stations in Britain… a recent report by the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada said that there was likely to be a 45,000-tonne shortage of uranium in the next decade, largely because of growing Chinese demand for the metal.” The upward spiral of the commodities boom is racing ahead at full speed. Depending upon whom you talk to, the labor and drill rig shortage is either very bad or worse than you can possibly imagine. If there are commodity inventory shortages right now, what happens by the end of this year, or later this decade, if current exploration efforts get grounded because companies lack the trained personnel, the proper equipment and the expertise to explore and/or develop their properties? You can’t run a drill rig if you can’t get your hands on one. You can’t drill the property if you can’t find drillers to run the rig. While commodities prices soar to levels not seen in twenty or thirty years, the tight labor and equipment market could ratchet prices to much higher levels. And junior uranium development companies, with proven pounds-in-the-ground assets, should become sought-after acquisition targets by those who have the staff and drill rigs to bring the projects online. For investors, the labor and drill rig shortage has a silver lining. As inventories dwindle lower, commodity prices will continue rising. For junior uranium investors, this might someday be realized as the “hidden reason” why spot uranium prices continued rising past $40/pound. If you don’t drill for the commodity, you can’t find it and develop it. This strengthens the case for $50/pound uranium in the near future. Now we understand why Strathmore Minerals’ David Miller warned us in November, “I wouldn’t be surprised to see uranium prices double again.”

         
     
         
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